MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

The (weird) 2020 playoffs are upon us, and with that we get some short-slate, oddly scheduled MLB DFS action. With both sites making the right decision and hosting four-game main slates that start at 2 p.m. tomorrow, there is some hope for at least a week of quality action. It will be interesting to see how the sites handle the upcoming eight-game days. For now, we at least have some home runs to project and a couple teams that look like great stacking options.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: n/a

Chicago Cubs: n/a

Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez – 7.36

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez – 14.42

Houston Astros: George Springer – 6.35

Los Angeles Dodgers: n/a

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: n/a

Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler – 12.06

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge – 8.05

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 4.70

San Diego Padres: n/a

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe – 17.37

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk – 13.74

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays – Rays – Rays 2-6 – Lowe – Arozarena – Lowe – Wendle – Adames

The Blue Jays have an unfortunate lack of pitching that is going to betray their talented roster of hitters in the postseason. Starting out the series with veteran Matt Shoemaker is indicative of how desperate this team is for a good option. Shoemaker threw 28.2 innings in six starts this season, compiling a 4.14 xFIP and a 22.6% strikeout rate while allowing a whopping eight home runs.

The Rays lineup is loaded with left-handed quality. Star outfielder Austin Meadows is still on the injured list, but the Rays are pulling one of the slate’s highest team totals regardless. Leading off will likely be Yoshi Tsutsugo, who has a .197/.314/.395 slash on the season with a .197 ISO and a WRC+ 2% below average. He’s hit eight home runs in his 185 plate appearances and is a bit of an all-or-nothing option.

Brandon Lowe hits second and provides plenty of left-handed power. The second baseman is at just $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel for this slate, and he ranks as one of the top options in my home run model. He projects as one of the better MLB DFS scoring options on the entire slate and is a cornerstone for Rays stacks tomorrow.

Randy Arozarena hits from the right side of the plate but has done a good job in same-handed matchups in his limited sample. The outfielder put up a .250 ISO and a WRC+ 26% above average in his 53 plate appearances. First baseman Nate Lowe hits behind him in the order and leads the team with a .269 ISO but also saw limited plate appearances in the sample, coming up just 59 times against right-handed pitchers in 2020. Both players work well in stacks at just $3,800 and $3,500 on DraftKings, $3,000 and $2,700 on FanDuel.

Joey Wendle follows the second Lowe and also hits left handed. He slots in at either second or third base on DraftKings and is another good bat in this split. Against righties in 2020, Wendle had a .179 ISO and a WRC+ 19% above average while striking out juts 19.9% of the time. Wendle hit four home runs with a .284/.336/.463 slash in the split.

Willy Adames was a quietly solid option at shortstop again in 2020. He’s priced at $4,100 on DraftKings, which might make people skip him on general name brand. Adames hit eight home runs in his 197 plate appearances this season, six of them against right-handed pitching. On FanDuel he’s easier to get to and should be more popular at just $2,700.

Kevin Kiermaier at just $3,000 is a discount I could be interested in on this slate. The veteran outfielder hits from the left side of the plate and is likely to get a bit ignored with the spotlight on all the stars available on a playoff slate. Kiermaier has a career .183 ISO and a WRC+ 3% above average in the split for his career. All three of his home runs in 2020 came against right-handed pitching, which is about as good as it’s going to get for a play like this.

The projected lineup winds down with Brett Phillips, a lefty outfielder who came over in a deadline deal and brings some post-hype prospect quality despite his .196/.305/.392 slash in 59 plate appearances this season. Phillips could be sneaky if he’s in the lineup for just $2,700 on DraftKings and the minimum on FanDuel. Also at the minimum on the blue site is Michael Perez, the left-handed projected catcher. Perez is at $3,500 on DraftKings and is a bit of a tougher sell. The backstop had a .167/.237/.238 slash overall in his 93 plate appearances, with a .079 ISO and a 30.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins – Twins – 8-1-2-3-4 – Garver – Kepler – Donaldson – Cruz – Rosario

I’m going with the oddsmakers on this one. Looking at the implied team totals, the Twins are the highest on the early board despite the matchup with veteran ace Zack Greinke. While the total is not astronomical at just 4.3 runs, it indicates that Vegas sees the same thing I do when I look at the past-his-prime hurler. As I’ve mentioned several times this season, Greinke no longer throws his changeup, which was his second-most utilized pitch. This is due to the fact that he can only muster his fastball at 87 mph now, which was the velocity to which he used to change. Greinke has replaced the changeup with more fastballs and is simply getting by with strikes, guts and guile. This could come crashing down quickly against a team like the Twins.

Minnesota was fourth in baseball with 77 home runs against righties in 2020. Their .212 ISO was also fourth best in baseball, though they do need to be patient at the dish. As a team, the Twins struck out the sixth most in baseball at a 25.7% clip. I’m taking the side with Vegas and my home run model, both of which are seeing some run creation for the Twins.

Leading off should be lefty masher Max Kepler. The all-time German-born MLB home run leader, Kepler hit nine out in his 196 plate appearances in 2020, all of them against right-handed pitching. Kepler had a .274 ISO and a WRC+ 44% above average in his 143 opportunities in the split and is an excellent option to start off stacks.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson is healthy and mashing in the middle for the Twins. The right-handed holder of the hot corner has a .258 ISO and a WRC+ 41% above average in his 80 plate appearances in the split in 2020. He has a career .220 ISO and a .271/.364/.491 slash in same-handed matchups. I’m hoping other people overlook the veteran on a loaded slate.

Nelson Cruz should need no sales pitch. Cruz hit 16 home runs this season in his 214 plate appearances. He hit 41 in 521 opportunities in 2019 and has 417 in his storied career. Cruz had a .246 ISO with a WRC+ 28% above average in same-handed matchups this season. He struck out 33.1% of the time, so it’s not all great news, but he walked 11.0% of the time and hit a home run in another 6.1% of them.

Eddie Rosario gets us back to the left side of the plate and costs just $4,200 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel. Rosario is the first of three straight players in the projected lineup who hit 13 home runs this season, maybe the superstitious among the public will stay away. I’m all over the outfielder for this price. All of his home runs came against right-handed pitching, and he had a .284 ISO. Rosario struck out just 14.9% of the time in the split as well, making him an excellent options to help fuel mid-lineup stacks.

The next two sluggers are also well worth the cost and could make a quality stack with Rosario on their own. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano each hit 13 home runs this year. Buxton added a pair of stolen bases if you need a tie breaker. Overall, Sano has more proven power, Buxton the better overall hit tool in 2020. In his 105 plate appearances in the split, the outfielder put up a monster .343 ISO with a WRC+ 24% above average.

Shortstop Jorge Polanco is priced all the way down to $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel. He’s carrying a .258/.304/.354 slash with a .096 ISO and a WRC+ 20% below average on the season, so the pricing makes sense. Still, this is a player with demonstrable upside who will likely go ignored at a premium position. This could put him in play for MLB DFS purposes, particularly on a small slate. Polanco has a .168 ISO and a WRC+ 20% above average in the split while striking out just 16% of the time against right-handed pitching since the start of 2018. He’s a good sneaky option here.

If Mitch Garver is getting ignored at the bottom of this lineup I want to buy in heavily. The catcher had a rough go of it in 2020, wrestling with injuries and struggling when he was in the lineup. He’s priced at $4,100 with a .167/.247/.264 slash that I really hope makes people forget the 31 home runs he hit in just 359 plate appearances in 2019. For just $2,200 on FanDuel, he’s ridiculously hilariously laughably absurdly underpriced for this slate. In his big 2019, Garver led the Twins with a gigantic .327 ISO and a WRC+ 30% above average against right-handed pitching, with 19 of his 31 home runs.

Luis Arraez has one of the best pure hit tools in the league, but that’s about all he has. The second baseman puts the ball in play constantly; he struck out just 9.1% of the time this season, while walking 6.6% and putting up a .321/.364/.402 slash with a .080 ISO. His lack of power keeps Arraez from being a great option for MLB DFS, but there is enough in his ability to get on base and set the table as a wraparound option that he’s not totally out of play on this slate.

HR Call: Francisco Lindor (Indians)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.