MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

It’s funny how my enthusiasm for the looming start of the next major sports season waxes and wanes depending on how my MLB DFS nights go. On days like today I really can’t wait. Fortunately we have all that amazing content for drafts, best ball and all that good stuff. Hit our draft kit and other content. You won’t regret it.

In MLB news, Andrew Heaney completely shut down the Padres and put a dent in my evening. Hopefully you were among the smart ones to get to him and get off the bats. With a little life left in the Dodgers game, we’ll see how things finish out, but so far the night has been dominated by pitching. On the offensive side, the White Sox came through with a big 11-run performance, and the Blue Jays were the runners up putting six on the board.

Tomorrow gets us back to a meaty main slate with nine games on both sites. The pitching options look robust across multiple salary tiers, and there are some great spots for stacks again. This is one that I really like the looks of in a few early lineup builds. As usual on FanDuel, the problem is what to do with some of the extra money. We talked a lot about lineup builds in Slack chat this afternoon. If you’re new to the site or you haven’t subscribed yet, the chat is another great tool you should make use of or another good reason to join the site. Hop in, say hi, ask some questions. It’s a good group.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker – 5.21

Atlanta Braves: n/a

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: n/a

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber – 5.50

Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal – 13.12

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes – 7.17

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado – 8.51

Detroit Tigers: n/a

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker – 5.14

Kansas City Royals: Maikel Franco – 9.47

Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon – 4.72

Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy – 10.79

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich – 13.36

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: Michael Conforto – 11.00

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 6.57

Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper – 9.94

Pittsburgh Pirates: n/a

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 8.02

San Francisco Giants: Mike Yastrzemski – 6.81

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager – 9.09

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong – 3.14

Tampa Bay Rays: n/a

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 6.02

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: n/a

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets – Mets – 2-4-5-6-7 – Conforto – Smith – Cano – Alonso – McNeil

The Phillies are in Queens to take on the Mets and their powerful offense. New York is third on the slate with a team WRC+ 17% above league average. The team strikes out just 21% of the time as a unit and is getting on base at a .349 clip. What they’ve been lacking in power they’ve been making up for in general quality. The power outage has come largely in the form of Pete Alonso‘s missing bat; many of these Mets hitters are performing to expectation or better.

The Phillies veteran right-hander Jake Arrieta has seen his better days come and go, and then he signed for a few years in Philadelphia. The pitcher doesn’t have a lot left in the tank overall. In his six starts in 2020, he’s struck out just 16.2% of hitters while walking 9%. His 1.56 WHIP is generally unsustainable, though his 4.34 xFIP is somewhat surprising. Ultimately we can target Arrieta with the quality of this Mets lineup. As a team, the Mets are hitting .285/.356/.455 against right-handed pitching. The first two marks lead baseball in their respective categories, the slugging percentage is sixth, and their 21.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers is the eighth-best mark in the league.

The Mets should be one of the top value plays on the board tomorrow as well. As a team they are highly affordable. The slumping Alonso is hitting sixth in the projected lineup. Alonso is someone we’ve checked in with regularly here when we touch on the Mets. The first baseman was at .209/.327/.395 coming into action on Thursday. His seven home runs would be fine for most players but are a huge letdown for Alonso. Still, we know who the hitter is. That he costs just $3,500 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings should render him popular here, but I’m getting a solid home run mark and a good projection on a guy we just saw hit 53 home runs as a rookie in 2019. Bet on the very real upside.

Jeff McNeil is hitting down in the lineup, which might make him less popular than he should be. He carries second base and outfield eligibility from the left side of the plate and costs just $3,500 on DraftKings and $2,600 at third base on FanDuel. McNeil is at a disappointing-for-him .284 average in his 116 plate appearances, but this is a hitter that was legitimately talked about as a contender to go for .400 in the short season. His .345/.373 finish to the slash add some appeal, though he hasn’t been driving the ball at just a .088 ISO and a WRC+ exactly at league average so far. All of these marks were far better over his 567 plate appearances in 2019 when he hit .318/.384/.531 with 23 home runs, a .214 ISO and a WRC+ 43% above average. Again, ride with what we know is in this bat against a fading veteran right-hander. Since the start of 2018, Arrieta has yielded a .296/.368/.497 slash to left-handed hitters. He’s struck out just 17% while walking 10% and yielding a 1.69 HR/9.

The back end of this lineup is looking interesting if Alonso and McNeil hit six and seven. Catcher Wilson Ramos is penciled into the eighth spot in the lineup. He’s priced down to $3,800 on DraftKings and just $2,200 on FanDuel. He’s been one of the best offensive catchers in baseball the last few years and should not be completely lost, despite his .237/.306/.330 slash in 2020. Over his career, Ramos has hit at least 15 home runs in every season in which he received at least 400 plate appearances, with the exception of 2019, in which he hit 14 homers. Popularity is the primary factor in determining how much Ramos to roster here.

Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto are a pair of lefties hitting who have had a good first half hitting atop this lineup. Nimmo is at .250/.400/.466 with five home runs, 22 runs scored and a .216 ISO. His WRC+ 43% above average is fourth highest on the team, and he does a terrific job setting the table for his pals. Conforto is getting on base and doing basically everything else better than Nimmo. The outfielder is having a nice season at .331/.426/.534 with a .203 ISO and a WRC+ 65% above average. Conforto had six home runs, 23 runs scored and 22 RBIs coming into action on Thursday.

J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith are reaching their potential hitting in the middle of the lineup for this team now that the path has been cleared for them. Davis hits from the right side of the plate and plays third base on DraftKings for just $4,000, while $2,700 gets him in your outfield on FanDuel. Since the start of 2019, Davis is hitting .296/.369/.493 with 17 home runs and 50 RBIs in 385 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, with a .196 ISO and WRC+ 31% above average.

Smith is a first baseman and an outfielder on DraftKings, where he costs a mere $4,400. On FanDuel he’s at $3,500 and is only an outfielder. The lefty is providing some thump in the middle of this lineup. He has seven home runs on the season with a .313/.389/.656 slash, a .344 ISO and a WRC+ 74% above average. He hit 11 home runs in just 197 plate appearances in 2019 and has a .293 ISO and WRC+ 49% above average against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season.

The Mets have Robinson Cano and Amed Rosario on opposite ends of the production spectrum and the age spectrum. Unfortunately for the team, the same guy isn’t on the same side of both. Cano is producing a throwback season at age 37, while Rosario is struggling mightily at just 24. Cano is a lefty in the middle of the lineup and is hitting .375/.408/.667 with a .292 ISO and a WRC+ 86% above average, by far his best season since 2016. Rosario is at just .210/.224/.333, and his WRC+ is 51% below average, which is dragging down the team’s overall mark that I mentioned earlier is one of the best on the board. I don’t really need Rosario at the end or wrapping around, but he’s unlikely to be popular in stacks, so I don’t completely object to a few shares.

San Diego Padres at Oakland A’s – A’s – 1-2-4-5-6 – Laureano – La Stella – Chapman – Olson – Canha

The Padres side of this is probably the better side for offense despite the matchup against Jesus Luzardo. We just saw Heaney wipe out this offense, but I wouldn’t expect them to fall completely asleep for two nights in a row. That said, I want to talk about the Athletics, who I think might be underrated in a decent spot against Zach Davies here. The implied team total is not as high as I would have expected. This is one to keep an eye on and could have landed in tomorrow’s Stack Slants if I hadn’t written so much so recently about the Padres, White Sox and Dodgers. All three of those teams are just great options for MLB DFS every day.

The A’s have been off for a few games after some COVID-19 tests came back positive. They’re expected back in action for this one, and the matchup is one I’m liking better than Vegas so far. Davies is putting up a reasonable start to 2020 with a 5-2 record and a 2.61 ERA on the back of the baseball card. The 3.99 xFIP is better than his career 4.43 by a fair margin, while the 23.3% strikeout rate is wildly out of character. This is a pitcher with a career 17.1% rate who came closest to 20% in 2016 with the Brewers when he hit 19.8%. I firmly believe the xFIP is going up and the strikeouts are coming down, I want to be ahead of the curve when they do.

It’s important to note off the top that star shortstop Marcus Semien is expected to miss this one with lingering soreness in his side. Still, the A’s lineup is one I liked quite a bit before the trade deadline, and they made a move to acquire Tommy La Stella from the division-rival Angels to further bolster things. The lefty slots in at first and second base on DraftKings for just $4,500, and he plays second base on FanDuel for $3,000. Over 120 plate appearances so far in 2020, he’s put up a .265/.361/.461 slash with a .196 ISO and a WRC+ 28% above average. His on-base tool is something Oakland prizes, and he fits into this lineup perfectly.

Ramon Laureano and Stephen Piscotty hit from the right side of the plate and are bookends to La Stella at one and three in the projected lineup. Of the pair I would usually prefer Laureano. His combination of mid-range power and good speed on the bases is excellent for MLB DFS, and he’s good at getting on base up top to set the table and take advantage of his speed.

The veteran Piscotty is at a big discount for a three hitter on DraftKings at just $3,200, a rare price that is the same on both sites. Piscotty has five home runs and 26 RBIs so far this season. Over 1,114 plate appearances in the split since the start of 2018, Piscotty has a .260/.320/.459 slash with 45 home runs and a .190 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Third baseman Matt Chapman has seen 1,427 plate appearances against same-handed pitchers since the start of 2018. He’s carrying a .253 ISO with a .262/.343/.515 slash, 70 home runs and 184 RBIs. Matt Olson, the big lefty first baseman, has a .241 ISO and 75 home runs in just 1,353 plate appearances over that same time-frame. Get both Matts in your A’s stacks.

Mark Canha‘s $3,000 on FanDuel is a genuine mis-price within what this team costs on tomorrow’s slate. The outfielder has 20 runs and 21 RBIs with a .268/.401/.429 slash and a WRC+ 36% above average in 2020. In our sample since the start of 2018, in same-handed matchups, Canha has a .263/.370/.478 slash with a .215 ISO. The right-handed bats on this team handle pitchers on that side of splits just fine, at least those not named Robbie Grossman or Sean Murphy. Grossman is actually fine for real baseball but not ideal in the split for MLB DFS purposes. The outfielder has a .257/.358/.384 slash with just a .126 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two-plus years, though his 17.9% strikeout rate and 13.0% walk rate are excellent and show good patience. He’s usable but not a preferred option.

Murphy is a quality bat who makes good contact but has not translated it into counting stats so far this season. The slugger hits toward the bottom of this lineup and makes for a good mix and match or a sneaky DraftKings catcher option when no one is on him. He’s still stinging the ball, sitting in the 91st percentile of average exit velocity and the 96th in hard hit rate. His 38th percentile xwOBA and 15th percentile strikeout rate leave plenty to be desired, but we’re just hoping to catch that two-homer upside on the right day.

HR Call: Eloy Jimenez (White Sox)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.