MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

If you started a slow draft on DraftKings for the big upcoming sport and then forgot about it, you’re probably in my league and it’s your turn to pick. But we’re here to talk MLB DFS as always. Check in all week long for all that other great content from the team for that other upcoming sport. On the MLB side of things, we have a fun looking slate coming up, following what was a pretty fun one on Tuesday night.

A lot of the pitching chalk went pop on us today. Walker Buehler and Andrew Heaney were lousy plays for the money and popularity on DraftKings, while several of the less noted arms coming in put up very nice starts. Sixto Sanchez in particular is really proving himself every bit the high-caliber pitcher he was expected to develop into one day. Unfortunately for my Kyle Wright and Dylan Cease shares, the same cannot be said for those two. Still, with plenty of Padres and some of the other good offensive spots in lineups it was a decent if unspectacular day.

Tomorrow’s slate has a few very interesting pitching spots with Yu Darvish and Trevor Bauer dueling in Chicago and Clayton Kershaw in a fantastic spot against the Diamondbacks. With pricey pitching on the board, we’re going to want some sneaky value plays, so check in tomorrow for Stack Slants to get some of those picks. For now we’re looking at the top plays and not sweating the chalk so much, as usual.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Eduardo Escobar – 8.15

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. – 7.81

Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle – 7.65

Boston Red Sox: n/a

Chicago Cubs: Anthony Rizzo – 7.98

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu – 11.06

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez – 3.97

Cleveland Indians: n/a

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story – 7.49

Detroit Tigers: n/a

Houston Astros: Alex Bregman – 7.56

Kansas City Royals: n/a

Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani – 11.54

Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger – 12.93

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar – 8.48

Milwaukee Brewers: n/a

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: Michael Conforto – 6.26

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 12.49

Philadelphia Phillies: n/a

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds – 7.30

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. – 10.54

San Francisco Giants: Evan Longoria – 7.23

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager – 5.54

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: n/a

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 22.59

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: n/a

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers – Angels – 2-3-4-5-7 – Trout – Rendon – Upton – Ohtani – Adell

The Angels have one of the slate’s highest early implied team totals in their matchup against Kyle Cody and the Texas Rangers. The Angels are a team we looked at a few times several weeks back but they’ve been off the board a bit for recent MLB DFS slates. The team has come up a few times this week in this series and I was surprised to see their numbers against right-handed pitching as high as they are in terms of team performance. With a rookie on the mound making just his second start, I think this is a spot to cash in some of those Angels chips.

In his first start, Cody walked two and struck out two over three innings. He’s unlikely to see a full workload against this team, whether that’s the Rangers plan of not. The Angels currently sit tenth in baseball with a .185 ISO and they have a 118 WRC+ against right-handed pitching. They only strike out 20.9% of the time, good for fourth best in baseball in the split and their 11.5% walk rate is second. This is a decent lineup in the split.

When it comes to MLB DFS, Mike Trout is the phrase “need I say more?” given human form.

Andrelton Simmons and Anthony Rendon bookend the future Hall of Famer in this lineup. Simmons has seen just 73 plate appearances this season and has a .044 ISO, though his WRC+ is 9% above average. Since the start of 2018, Simmons has a .099 ISO and a WRC+ 10% below average against same-handed pitching. The shortstop’s primary attribute is his ability to limit strikeouts and put the ball in play. In the two-year sample in this split, Simmons has has struck out in just 8.6% of his 779 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.

If Trout doesn’t drive him in, Rendon has a good shot to hitting third. The slugger was brought in from Washington to give Trout some help in this lineup and add a second true star. Rendon has largely delivered this season, with a .292/.425/.538 slash, eight home runs and a .246 ISO. His WRC+ 64% above average is second only to his superstar teammate. Since the start of 2018, Rendon has hit 46 home runs against right-handed pitchers. He costs just $4,000 and is easy to get to on FanDuel. With other inexpensive pieces of the Angels lineups, his $5,200 on DraftKings is easy enough to get to in Angels stacks as well. It might also be enough to keep the one-off ownership low.

Justin Upton is hitting cleanup in the projected lineup and costs just $2,600 on DraftKings, which is warranted if you only consider his .192/.270/.374 slash and his WRC+ 24% below average this season. The outfielder has a .223 ISO and a WRC+ 28% above average against same-handed pitching since the start of 2018. I’m happy to play the history and build the savings into my stacks with this team. And we’ve just paid for a portion of Trout and Rendon’s extra salary burden.

Ohtani brings it from the left side of the plate and is the better hitter at this point in his career. However, he has an identical .192 average in 2020 and the back-end of his triple slash isn’t much better with a .297 on-base and a .367 slugging percentage. The outfielder’s ISO is just .175 and he’s carrying a WRC+ 15% below average overall. Against right-handed pitching, however, Ohtani has a .229 ISO and a WRC+ just 4% below average, though his 26.9% strikeout rate and his .290 on-base percentage leave something to be desired. Part of this could be injury related for Ohtani as well. Since the start of 2018, he’s hitting .286/.352/.563 with a .277 ISO and 40 home runs against right-handed pitchers. I’m happy to get some Ohtani in my lineups against this starter if he’s getting ignored.

The back-end of the lineup has some issues but also a ton of salary savings. Aging Albert Pujols may be in the lineup with his .226/.274/.368 slash and WRC+ 28% below average. I’m indifferent to Pujols at this point. I never like getting to him, but when he lands in crunches I don’t specifically take him out. Make no mistake, he’s nowhere near the player he once was. He’s barely the player you once were at this point. Still, the lineup spot and the price aren’t bad. I would probably prefer to get to the power upside in Jo Adell. The rookie outfielder has three home runs over his 100 plate appearances, and Pujols has three in 113. It’s an exciting race, though Adell is still below the Mendoza line, which is what helps his price down to $2,100.

Also at that mark is the somewhat playable Matt Thaiss as either a first or third baseman on DraftKings. The 25-year-old has reasonably graded power and hit from the left side of the plate. In 372 AAA plate appearances in 2019, Thaiss hit 14 home runs and had a .203 ISO. Anthony Bemboom is a very cheap left-handed catcher play from late in this lineup. That might make him popular, but the more the public is on him the less I want. If he’s sneaky we can get there, however, so keep an eye on ownership through the day.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics – A’s 1-2-3-4-6 – La Stella – Semien – Laureano – Olson – Canha

The Astros have Luis Garcia on the mound for the game with the A’s tomorrow. Garcia had never pitched above high-A ball prior to this season. He’s made one appearance in the Show with 4.1 innings pitched and came away with a 5.66 xFIP. Through his brief career in low-A and rookie ball, Garcia did strike out around 35% of hitters, but so could most pitchers of only middling renown. There doesn’t appear to be anything special about Garcia’s arsenal and he’s a non-prospect. This looks like a pitcher to target with A’s bats.

Oakland ranks 11th in baseball with a .185 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2020. The active roster has a WRC+ 9% above average and they draw an 11.1% walk-rate in the split. Dating back to the start of the 2018 season, the active roster has a .195 ISO, fourth best in the league, and a WRC+ 12% above average in the split. The A’s 352 home runs against right-handed pitchers ranks them seventh in baseball over the same stretch.

The A’s got Marcus Semien back in this lineup for Tuesday’s game and he should be hitting in either the first or second spot as usual tomorrow. The lineup could be without Matt Chapman again as the third baseman is day-to-day with lingering soreness. Still, the lineup is fairly stacked without him in this spot.

Semien brings plenty to the plate on his own. The shortstop has created runs 10% better than the league average over the last two years against same-handed pitching. At just $4,200 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel he’s easy to get into your lineups. The A’s added Tommy La Stella to this infield at the trade deadline and he joins Semien in the top two spots in this lineup most days. La Stella has been very good at getting on base since the start of 2018, with a .359 clip against right-handed pitching. The lefty hitter fills in at second or third base on DraftKings and costs a mere $4,600, though his $2,900 is even more appealing over on the blue site.

The dynamic lineup created by hitting Ramon Laureano third behind those two and in front of destroyer of baseballs Matt Olson is interesting. With the trio getting on base — assuming a regression to the norm for Semien — and make things happen with their legs, there could be increased opportunities for Olson to drive in runs. His 109 WRC+ is solid already, while his .250 ISO and 10 home runs coming into Tuesday are excellent. The first baseman is one of the more powerful options for under $5,000 on the slate tomorrow. Laureano hits for power and swipes bases, making him a terrific MLB DFS option.

Robbie Grossman and Mark Canha join Khris Davis toward the back-end of the projected lineup. Of the three, Canha is by far the choice here. He has dual eligibility at first base and outfield on DraftKings and his $4,900 could render him a bit unpopular tomorrow. I’m happy to invest in the bat that hit 26 home runs in just 497 plate appearances in 2019. Canha also sits first on the team in on-base percentage with a .376 in the split since the start of 2018. His WRC+ in that sample is 26% above average and he’s carrying a .181 ISO with 25 home runs.

Khris Davis has seemingly turned into Chris Davis over the last calendar year or so. After a wrist injury in 2019 sapped his power for the season. The slugger just has not been able to find anything at the plate. So far in 2020 he’s at just .155/.269/.241 with a .086 ISO and one home run. I’m not sure he’s worth the $3,200 on DraftKings right now, though I’m sure I’ll have a little if he’s in the lineup. Grossman is in play at $3,600, as would be Stephen Piscotty if he makes it into the A’s lineup despite his wrist soreness issues.

Catcher Sean Murphy is someone I throw into mentions with this team from time to time since the position can be a good point of differentiation on DraftKings where everyone is required to play one. The backstop has a team-leading .319 ISO against right-handed pitching over his 110 plate appearances in the split over the 2019 and 2020 seasons to date. Murphy’s WRC+ is 51% above average and he’s walked 13.6% of the time in the split. Although he has also struck out 26.4% of the time. This is an Oakland A’s hitter through and through. The public ownership is an easy way to make decisions with Murphy.

HR Call: Shohei Ohtani (Angels)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.