MLB DFS: Monday, July 15th gives us a Coors Field doubleheader and we have a robust ten game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Monday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
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FanDuel MLB DFS Picks
With no real high priced pitching studs, FanDuel is set-up to make life difficult. Even with a Coors game on the schedule, the pitcher you select shouldn’t prohibit you from rostering your favorite bats. Clayton Kershaw is my favorite starter of the slate, but that could easily change with some line moves or lineup changes. Sometimes, I want to bet on talent. I’ll bet on Kershaw, but I’m not going heavy on any one starter. James Paxton hasn’t had a problem mowing down righties or lefties, but he does give up a bit more power to right handed hitters. That’s not so bad at Yankee Stadium, which plays up lefty power in a significant way. If Paxton has a rough DFS night, I’m guessing it comes from being BABIP’d to death.
I’ll also being keeping a close eye on the game total for the Cubs and Reds. As long as we aren’t in line for a Wrigley wind game, I’ll be getting to a decent amount of Luis Castillo. Obviously, the talent of the Cubs is a challenge when rostering a starting pitcher, but this park fits him pretty well. Castillo has some real struggles with left handed power, but he’ll be aided by the 93 park factor for lefty homeruns. He’s been death to righties, so if this total stays low, Castillo could climb to the top of my pitcher pool.
DraftKings MLB DFS Picks
DraftKings tells a different story. Castillo is the most expensive starter at $11800. It’s not that I mind him at that price, but he’s just not the same value as on FD. I don’t expect him to be a priority. Kershaw maintains his top spot, especially when he’s priced $1100 cheaper than Castillo. I’ll happily take some shares of Blake Snell, but it should come as no surprise that grabbing pitchers against the Yankees power bats in New York is a tough sell. His public ownership will be my biggest indicator of how I want to use him.
Jakob Junis has gotten blasted by both hands over the past two years, with righties in particular giving him a ton of trouble. With that said, I still have some interest in him in the mid-tier. The projected lineup for the White Sox is the best strikeout matchup on the board. Kansas City’s ballpark limits power about as well as any other park in the majors. I try to deploy Junis selectively and I think this is the best spot for him this season.
I have a similar feel for Rick Porcello. Porcello has allowed a .214 xISO against lefties over the past two years, which is…not good. Luckily for Porcello, the Blue Jays are light on lefty sluggers and Fenway Park kills lefty power. This is the perfect recipe for a solid Porcello start. Don’t be surprised to see him with 20+ DraftKings points when the night ends.
Yahoo MLB DFS Picks
Yahoo is Lucas Giolito at the top of the salary table, but I can’t imagine paying that price with some of the value available. I still love Kershaw, but Paxton at $44 is the best combination of upside and price. Snell at just $38 is a close second. Being able to combine both of those guys for just $82 is easily my favorite combination. Junis is a nice pay down option at $33, but with the pricing of the arms at the top, I’m not sure he’s as necessary as he normally would be. I don’t have a ton to say about Adrian Houser, but don’t be surprised if he provides value at the flat minimum. The Braves are a tough matchup, but he’s a better pitcher than his price indicates.
Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.