MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, July 26 (FREE)

MLB DFS Picks: Friday, July 26th leads us towards a weekend with wall-to-wall baseball with 28 teams in action for the main game set on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE for more MLB picks and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.

Don’t forget to check out EMac’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article!

For Friday’s free Yahoo Strategy article click here 


Don’t forget to check out the Strategy Show for Friday, July 26.


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

[table id=1177 /]

DraftKings MLB

[table id=1178 /]

Yahoo MLB

[table id=1201 /]

Yesterday was tricky, as we didn’t really have a true ace on the slate. Picking between the 12 pitchers felt like a bit of a crap shoot. Today feels similar, only there are 28 arms instead of 12. Fun stuff.

Zack Greinke

Greinke is my top arm on FanDuel and DraftKings. I still have some interest on Yahoo, but he’s the most expensive arm by a mile. Luckily, there’s some crazy value at pitcher today, which makes his price more palatable. It’s hard for a pitcher facing the Marlins in Miami to not be interesting, and today is no exception. Greinke’s biggest struggle is right handed power. Over the past two seasons, Greinke has allowed a .188 xISO to righties and a .120 xISO to lefties. Lucky for him, the Marlins have the lowest ISO in the league against right handed pitching. Marlins Park is tied with Oracle Park as the most difficult spot for right handed power. Did I mention that Miami has the lowest implied total on the slate? Greinke checks every box today.

Zack Wheeler

*12:47PM – If/when we get confirmation that Wheeler will be limited due to pitch count, he’ll fall off of my list of interesting arms. I would rather pay up for Lance Lynn.

Wheeler comes in $900 cheaper than Greinke on FanDuel, $1300 cheaper on DraftKings and…$20 cheaper on Yahoo!!! Seriously, Wheeler is just $37 on Yahoo today. Because of that price, he makes for the best dollar for dollar play. Now, I realize this isn’t the best matchup. The Pirates simply don’t strikeout. Luckily, they’ve been pedestrian in terms of power against righties. The Pirates active roster sports a .176 ISO against RHP in 2019 which ranks 23rdin baseball. Wheeler goes deeper into games than most starters which is what makes him so appealing to me. If the ball stays in the yard, Wheeler just needs to avoid getting BABIP’d. The Pirates are one of three teams with an implied total under four runs, so I’ll take that bet.

Joey Lucchesi

I’ll bet you didn’t expect to see this name so early. Lucchesi is so cheap across all three sites that he’s my third ranked value arm on all of them. The Giants are an average strikeout matchup, but they make up for lack of strikeout upside in other ways. Their active roster has an 83 wRC+ against LHP. That’s good for 29th in the league, one spot ahead of the Marlins. While Petco isn’t the same pitcher’s park it was in the past, it’s still a benefit to the guys on the hill. I have four pitchers projected for more than six strikeouts, and Lucchesi is one of them. It’s difficult to find that kind of production at his price point, so I expect him to be one of my highest owned pitchers of the slate.

Jose Urquidy

I don’t anticipate having any Urquidy on FanDuel, but at $5000 on DraftKings and $25 on Yahoo, I’ll certainly get my fill. The Cardinals have been terrible this season with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 89 wRC+ against right handed pitching. Urquidy is coming off of a seven inning, nine strikeout performance against Texas on July 20, so his name should be fresh in people’s minds. He has big time stuff, as evidenced by his 33% strikeout rate across AA and AAA this year. I didn’t expect to see him as such a cheap option on the two pitcher sites after last week, yet here we are. He’ll be popular, but I can’t see getting away from him. There’s way too much upside in his price, and you can recover if your $5K arm has a bad night.


Awesemo YouTube

Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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