MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel | August 7

Friday MLB DFS action is giving us a loaded 13-game main slate to work with. There are a few high-end pitchers available on the slate and several stacks that could be going underappreciated, so it’s going to be an interesting one to unpack as lineups get released and we start getting into crunches. There appears to be a ton of value available on FanDuel, where pricing has been slow to adapt, while the DraftKings game is far more demanding of the salary cap. Keep a close eye on the top stacks and top pitchers tools through the day. They’re going to be critical in making some pivot decisions tonight.

Some breaking news actually just landed: It looks like the Cubs-Cardinals game is postponed tonight after two additional Cardinals players tested positive for COVID-19. If they’re forced to scratch the entire season, that’s bad news for schedule completion math, and it takes a stack that I thought was intriguing off the board tonight.


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MLB DFS Stacks, Slants and Picks

Miami Marlins – 1-3-4-5-6 – Villar – Dickerson – Aguilar – Anderson – Joyce

This is a space for uncomfortable MLB DFS picks, and there’s not a more uncomfortable team to get on board with than the Marlins. This is not a good lineup, and their friskiness to start 2020 is largely smoke and mirrors, but they happen to find themselves in a quality spot tonight with Michael Wacha on the hill. Wacha strikes out too few, walks too many and is projected for nearly a 5.00 FIP for the season. Wacha’s HR/9 for 2019 was over 1.00 for the first time in his career, and it was way over, coming in at 1.85. His 1.33 career WHIP is something to target as well. This is a pitcher who allows ample opportunities to most opposing lineups.

The Marlins will never be confused with the 1927 Yankees, but there is some limited quality near the top of this lineup. Jonathan Villar can still produce quality fantasy games with his hit tool and his speed. Leading off for this lineup, he makes sense as a starting point for this stack, we’re just hoping he’s on base when a big bat behind him hits a homer. If we pick off a stolen base, it’s a bonus. Corey Dickerson is a solid lefty bat in the middle of this lineup, and he’s only drawing around 5% ownership at just $2,500 on FanDuel. Jesus Aguilar and Brian Anderson are on the same-handed side of their splits today, but the two big (for this team) right-handed bats in this lineup can still turn on one here. Matt Joyce is another platoon specialist who should be getting a shot toward the back end of this lineup. In his 12-year career, Joyce has hit 145 home runs, and 133 of them have come against right-handed pitching.


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Houston Astros – 1-2-4-5-6 – Tucker- Altuve – Bregman – Brantley – Correa

The Astros get a mention here for the second straight day. They rank as part of a large group of teams in the middle of the top stacks tool, but they are drawing basically no ownership on either site. With a lineup packing this much quality, even with George Springer sitting out with a lingering wrist injury, anytime I see them trending for that little ownership I’m at least intrigued. Facing a pitcher like the Athletics’ Chris Bassitt seems like a high-quality spot for this lineup to be going to under-owned.

Kyle Tucker could be in the leadoff spot here, and while I question the decision from a real baseball lineup building point of view, I would love to have him atop this lineup picking up an extra plate appearance for MLB DFS purposes. The young slugging lefty bat is drawing essentially zero ownership at just $2,900 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings. Building down from Tucker in a straight line is viable today given the overall team ownership. You would pick up some additional differentiation by skipping Jose Altuve or Alex Bregman as you build here, but it doesn’t seem necessary. Bregman’s current 8% projection on DraftKings is the highest ownership number for this team on either site. I’m content using them both here and getting different with something else. Michael Brantley‘s and Josh Reddick‘s left-handed bats make sense as additional pieces of this stack. Both are very good at limiting the strikeout, and both get more of their pop against the opposite hand.

I won’t stop touting Carlos Correa until people start rostering him for MLB DFS again. The 25-year-old shortstop has a career ISO of .213 with 104 home runs and a WRC+ 31% above league average over his first 2,413 plate appearances. Correa played in just 75 games in 2019 but still managed to hit 21 home runs and post a .289 ISO in his 321 plate appearances. When he’s in the lineup he’s an absolute stud, and he fills the shortstop requirement perfectly at extremely low ownership and a great price point. I like including Correa here at under 1% ownership on both sites.

Colorado Rockies – 2-6 – Story – Blackmon – Arenado – Kemp – McMahon

This one is mostly a DraftKings play. If you watched the Strategy Show, you heard Jason mention that our own Adam “Shipmymoney” Scherer was leaning into some Yusei Kikuchi when those two recorded the Early Bird Podcast last night. My next stop after finishing this piece is to listen to Adam’s take on that spot. I don’t disagree, and I really like what he digs up on pitching options, so I’m curious to dig into it further.

Despite that, with Kikuchi drawing nearly 30% ownership as an extremely inexpensive SP2 option on DraftKings, I think it makes some sense to look at rolling some Rockies bats against him to pick up ground on a large chunk of the field if they connect. The Rockies on the road are never the most popular option, whether from quality or from general fatigue from the industrywide attention they receive in home games. There is still plenty of quality here against a young lefty, namely Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. The pair have an average ISO projection of .267 from Steamer and can absolutely mash any starter in the league. Kikuchi has yielded 28 home runs to right-handed hitters in his short career, roughly 4.5% of the 612 he has faced so far, and his 2.00 HR/9 across his 32 rookie starts in 2019 is something we can attack. The top lefty bats like Charlie Blackmon and Daniel Murphy are fine to build into a full stack here as well.

The Rockies offer some additional right-handed quality with Matt Kemp late in this lineup. I like the idea of working in Kemp, depending on where he lands in the batting order. If we can add his bat in the fifth spot behind Arenado, it’s a dream spot. Kemp missed most of 2019, but in his healthy 2018 he was right around his career marks and posted a WRC+ 22% above league average. For his career, the outfielder has a .314/.374/.538 slash with a .224 ISO and WRC+ 43% above average against left-handed pitching. Finally, Ryan McMahon has shown reverse-splits trends for his young career, posting a .258/.323/.495 line with a .237 ISO in his 218 plate appearances against lefties as compared to just a .237/.325/.394 with a .158 ISO in 593 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. This makes me want to build down to McMahon in this stack, which I think will provide an even sneakier option within an already underplayed stack.

The Rockies are going under-owned on both MLB DFS sites, but it’s particularly on DraftKings where I think we can weaponize them against the pitching ownership share.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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