MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel | 9/22

Consider this intro your daily reminder that the Atlanta Braves are an excellent offense and are going under-owned across MLB DFS. I’m not going to write them up below. We’ll hunt for something sneakier, but the Braves look terrific in their matchup and not enough people are getting to them again.

With a lack of obvious stud pitching options, tonight seems like a great spot to spread the exposures, pick up some cheap starting combinations and really dive into bats. There are a ton of games to choose from, and the stacks board is fat through the middle, with no team garnering even a 10% share in probability of success. This should be a fun slate as the year winds down around us.

MLB DFS Stack Slants | DraftKings + FanDuel | Sept. 21

Minnesota Twins – 2-3-5-6-7 – Donaldson – Cruz – Sano – Garver – Kepler

The Twins are back in the top grouping on the stacks board and drawing lower ownership than what their probability of being the top team should warrant. The spot looks good against rookie starter Tarik Skubal. The pitcher has some upside going forward and is a well-regarded prospect. So far in his 23.1 innings in the majors this year, Skubal has allowed five home runs and has a 4.76 xFIP to his 6.17 ERA. he’s struck out 25.5% of hitters while inducing 12% swinging strikes, so there is talent in the arm and the upside is clear in his swinging strike rate that approached 20% in several seasons in the minors. Still, Skubal should be vulnerable and in over his head with that propensity to allow the home run with a team like the Twins on the other side.

Since the start of 2019 the Twins active roster has a .196 ISO and a 113 WRC+ against left-handed pitching with just a 20.6% strikeout rate. They have some ugly numbers in the split this year with Mitch Garver and Josh Donaldson both missing time, but both are back in the lineup here. The extended split removes the small sample and injury-limited results and shows us the true upside of this lineup against this pitcher.

Nelson Cruz is carrying a questionable tag and the lineup has yet to be released. If he’s in for the Twins he’s in for me, it’s basically that simple when Cruz faces a lefty. He costs $5,400 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel, but the rest of this team is affordable enough to make that less important. The ageless wonder has hit 16 home runs overall in 2020 while getting to a .314/.403/.623 slash in his 201 plate appearances. Six of his 16 home runs have come in just 50 plate appearances against lefties. Over his last 360 plate appearances in the split, since the start of 2018, Cruz has 33 home runs against lefties, the most in baseball. Since starting with the Twins last year, Cruz has 22 home runs in 190 opportunities in the split, again the most in baseball.

Hitting ahead of Cruz’ likely place in the lineup we should find the left side of the Twins infield in the form of shortstop Jorge Polanco and third baseman Donaldson. Always on the cusp of a true breakout season, Polanco has yet to completely put things together all in the same year for MLB DFS players. His combination of power and speed can be tantalizing at the position at times, and he typically comes at a bit of a discount compared to his peers. This season Polanco has a .352/.357/.463 slash with a WRC+ 22% above average against lefties. Polanco also puts the ball in play at all times, striking out just 8.9% of the time against lefties but walking just 1.8% of the time.

Donaldson is a proven stud of a power hitter. He’s struck out against lefties at a 22.2% clip so far this season, but walked 27.8% of the time while hitting one home run. Of course, that’s over just an 18 plate appearance sample. From the start of 2018 through the end of the 2019 season, Donaldson has a .235 ISO against left-handed pitching. He creates runs at a rate 30% better than average and has hit 10 home runs in his 225 opportunities in the sample.

Lefty Eddie Rosario is in the cleanup spot in the projected lineup, and he’s drawing essentially no ownership in the same-handed matchup. Rosario is pulling just a .039 ISO and a WRC+ 43% below average in the split this season, so the hesitation is understandable. If we look back to the start of 2019, Rosario climbs to a better but still disappointing .137 ISO and a WRC+ 12% below average, with a .275/.307/.412 slash and five home runs. He’s not as inept as his numbers this year suggest. With no one else on him, I don’t mind some minor distributions of Rosario in Twins stacks, but he won’t be as much of a fixture as on the other side of splits.

The power in the bats of Miguel Sano and Garver, on the other hand, intrigues me quite a bit. Sano has hit 13 home runs in his 188 plate appearances this season, two in his 44 plate appearances against lefties. Since the start of last season Sano is second on the team with 13 home runs in 165 plate appearances against southpaws with a .253/.321/.573 slash, a .320 ISO and a WRC+ 30% above average.

Garver had a big 2019, hitting 31 home runs in only 359 plate appearances, a wild total at the position and in that small a sample. This year, Garver has spent most of the season on the injured list. The backstop has seen just 70 plate appearances and is stuck at .148/.243/.197 on the season. I’m hoping Garver gets ignored or forgotten and becomes a sneaky catcher option on the slate.

Max Kepler is hitting down-lineup in this same-handed matchup, and he could make another sneaky play at just $4,100 and under 1% ownership in the last update. Kepler has a .193 ISO and a WRC+ 3% above average against fellow southpaws since the start of last year. There’s no reason to skip him for handedness.

Byron Buxton is having a terrific year overall and will likely be under 5% owned. The right-handed bat has 12 home runs so far this season, and he has a .218 ISO and a WRC+ 24% above average against left-handed pitching since the start of last year. Bringing up the bottom of the lineup should be switch-hitting utility man Marwin Gonzalez. The hitter has been scuffling through most of the year and is primarily a mix-and-match option for some salary relief at $3,700, slotting into a second base spot at which we have a dearth of premium options.


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Los Angeles Dodgers – 1-3-5-6-8 – Betts – Turner – Bellinger – Smith – Pollock

I say I’m going to look for something sneaky, and I end up delivering the best offense in baseball. I’ve told you guys repeatedly I’m not good with planning. The Dodgers are actually going under-owned today, however. This is a pay-up-to-be-somewhat-contrarian option with the team priced up across the board. The Padres are in a similar spot, drawing slightly less ownership than they warrant. The Dodgers provide a slightly greater edge in ownership. Neither team is going to help you with value, though.

The Dodgers look terrific in their matchup against the struggling Frankie Montas. The right-handed starter has just a 4.66 xFIP in his 43 innings this season. He’s allowed seven home runs and is inducing far fewer groundballs than in previous seasons, sitting at just 38.6%. That’s a major component of what Montas does well when he’s pitching right, this Dodgers lineup is too good to not take advantage of the weakness. In 2020 the Dodgers are second in baseball with a .239 ISO against right-handed pitching. They create runs at a rate 26% better than the average and strike out just 20% of the time as a team. This offense is excellent on this side of splits.

Excellence is easy to attain when you have a lineup that features two recent MVPs and a host of players who specialize in roughing up right-handed hurlers. Mookie Betts starts things off up top at his $6,100 price tag, which makes him more expensive than several pitchers who will be in play tonight. Betts deserves the high salary with his .303/.376/.597 slash, 16 home runs and nine stolen bases on the season. He creates runs at a pace 60% ahead of the average and has a .294 ISO on the year.

Betts will be followed by Corey Seager who has been hitting everything thrown his way. Seager has a .311/.362/.589 slash this year with a .279 ISO and 13 home runs. The shortstop is among the best options at an elite position. Against right-handed pitching, the lefty has a .301 ISO and a WRC+ 66% above average in 2020. At $5,500 he’s difficult but not impossible to pair with Betts to take two right off the top of this stack. Continuing out to a full five-man there could be a challenge.

Justin Turner is back at the third base spot, and the right-handed bat is priced up to $5,000 on DraftKings but costs just $3,000 on FanDuel, which is advantageous on the blue site. Turner has a .296/.396/.415 slash and is great to produce on his own or set the table for hitters behind him. There are no real concerns about rostering Turner against same-handed pitching, he has a WRC+ 44% above average in the split this season.

Continuing the spending spree, we can plug in lefties Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger in the middle of this lineup. Bellinger is a superstar having a bit of a down year, though he’s priced at $5,600 like everything is just fine. At under 7% ownership, I’m happy to roll with the established talent that I know is in the bat. Bellinger has hit 11 home runs despite his struggles and he still has a .201 ISO and a WRC+ two percent above average. Muncy slots in at either first or third base and brings additional lefty pop to the lineup. He’s hit 10 home runs on the season but is also struggling in the back-of-the-card stats with just a .189/.330/.373 slash.

Catcher Will Smith has made 112 plate appearances this season and has an excellent .297/.420/.582 slash with six home runs and a WRC+ 69% above average, making him one of the better catcher plays on any slate. At just $4,600 and 5.5% projected ownership, Smith is the first discounted bat we’ve come across in this lineup.

Joc Pederson is another lefty who typically crushes right-handed pitching, but he has struggled this season. Pederson has yet to find his stroke overall this year, going just .174/.268/.376 with six home runs, but he does drive the ball when he connects as his .202 overall ISO demonstrates. The slugging outfielder is probably best utilized as a mix-and-match option from later in the Dodgers lineup today, but I’d like to be above the field on him by a fair amount as I build Dodgers lineups. His $3,300 salary is particularly appealing for the home run upside we know resides in the lumber with this hitter.

A.J. Pollock is not a name you would typically expect to see hitting eighth, but that’s the quality of this Dodgers team. The outfielder has a .274/.310/.531 slash with 12 home runs, a .257 ISO and a WRC+ 23% above average this season. He has been good in same-handed matchups as well, holding a .219 ISO with a WRC+ 7% above average.

Gavin Lux is the likely last lefty in this lineup. Lux has a .216 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season but has struggled to just a 74 WRC+, 16% below average. The second baseman is one of the better strikeout targets on the team as well, though he costs just $4,300 on DraftKings at second base and is pulling basically zero ownership.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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