MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel | 9/26

It’s been a blast knocking out these daily dives into the MLB DFS bargain bin looking for low-owned plays all season. We’ll be covering the playoffs in some format or other but I’m not sure how the slates will land yet, so we’ll see what columns are relevant. Regardless, as long as all goes to plan, we’ll be back at it next regular season before we even know where the time went.

Today’s slate has a few great looking spots, the best offenses in baseball are going under-owned for pricing reasons once again and there are a few good value teams to help us get to them.

MLB DFS Stack Slants | DraftKings + FanDuel | Sept. 26

Milwaukee Brewers – 9-2-3-4-5 – Omar NarvaezChristian YelichRyan Braun – Dan Vogelbach – Keston Hiura

The Brewers are in St. Louis facing veteran right-handed starter Adam Wainwright. The pitcher has had a good season overall, in something of a return to form. He’s striking out batters at a higher rate than over the past few seasons, at 21%, and he is inducing a career-high rate of swinging strikes so far this year. Overall, Wainwright has a 4.09 xFIP to his 3.05 ERA, showing a bit of luck in his numbers. The right-handed starter has allowed six home runs to lefty hitters this season in 116 opportunities. In a nearly equal 118 batter sample he’s yielded just one home run to right-handed hitters.

The Brewers have struggled overall in the split against right-handed pitching in 2020, though over the last month as a whole they have a .179 team ISO and a WRC+ one percent above average. The team has gotten healthy over that stretch, so it makes sense that their numbers have ticked up. The real reason we’re looking at them is the value they provide for the ownership. On a slate with a few expensive options to which we need exposure, the Brewers are by far the lowest-owned team with any potential to provide salary relief and quality upside at the same time. The team ranks in the bottom half of the stacks tool and they’re drawing slightly more ownership than their chances of being a top two stack. The value should be enough to make them worth getting to despite the relative popularity.

The Brewers projected lineup has Avisail Garcia up top at just $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. Even if he isn’t in the top spot, Garcia is in play for MLB DFS stacks today. The outfielder is at .248/.347/.345 with a WRC+ nine percent below average on the season and typically is a play I look for in matchups against opposite-handed pitchers. Since the start of 2019 in same-handed matchups, Garcia has a .148 ISO with a WRC+ just one percent below average, though he’s lacked power in the split this season.

Christian Yelich is a superstar at a discount with his $4,300 price on DraftKings and just $4,000 on FanDuel. The outfielder has scuffled his way to a .205/.346/.426 slash with 11 home runs, a .221 ISO and a WRC+ just eight percent above average, all down significantly for him. Since the start of 2019, Yelich has a .316 ISO and a WRC+ 61% above average in the split, which is a lot more like it. I’m excited to roster Yelich at this price, regardless of any recent struggles.

Ryan Braun had a renaissance last year, struggled early this season and has now somewhat leveled off. He’s carrying a .248/.294/.504 slash on the eyar with seven home runs and a WRC+ seven percent above average. His .256 ISO is the best in the team’s starting lineup on the season. Against right-handed pitching, Braun has a .209 ISO and a WRC+ six percent above average since the start of 2019.

First baseman Dan Vogelbach is on his third team of the season, but he brings a lefty bat full of power to this matchup. In his 529 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since the start of last year, Vogelbach has a .243 ISO, a WRC+ 21% above average and 30 home runs. He’s at a discount for the power at just $2,500 on FanDuel.

Second baseman Keston Hiura is going to be a top hitter in the league for a long time. This season he’s at just .217/.306/.429 but he has 13 home runs and a .212 ISO. His WRC+ just six percent below average shows some of his upside despite his struggles making contact and getting on base this year. Those are both skills this hitter has proven over time in the minors and in his short career in the majors so far, I would bet on the regression to the norm over the second half of a normal season with Hiura, and the power has never left. He has 29 home runs against right-handed pitching since the start of 2019 and 11 of his 13 home runs this season have come in same-handed matchups.

Jedd Gyorko has just a .156 ISO and a WRC+ 29% below average against right-handed pitching since the start of 2019. He’s in the projected lineup, but the Brewers could replace the veteran with a different bat off the bench in the split. Jace Peterson hits from the left side of the plate and slots in at third base or the outfield on DraftKings but he has just a .205/.379/.364 slash with two home runs and one stolen base in his 58 plate appearances. He’s a mix and match option who costs the minimum and will probably draw too much ownership in the end.

Orlando Arcia is a shortstop who costs just $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel. The infielder never hit his projected ceiling but he’s a somewhat effective option in the right spot for MLB DFS, though he’s carrying a WRC+ 46% below average in the split since the start of last season. My strong preference at the end of this lineup is catcher Omar Narvaez. The lefty could be hitting in a much better spot than his projected ninth, which would make me even more interested.

In 482 plate appearances in 2019, Narvaez hit 22 home runs and had a .182 ISO overall. Against right-handed pitching since the start of last season, he’s at a .182 ISO and a WRC+ nine percent above average. Narvaez is underpriced at $2,600 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel.

 


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Atlanta Braves – 8-9-1-2-3 – Austin RileyDansby SwansonRonald Acuna Jr.Freddie FreemanMarcell Ozuna

One more time for the money. The Braves have been a column go-to all season long. The MLB DFS public has routinely decided against getting to this ridiculously good offense and that looks like the case once again. At home in a matchup against the Red Sox and starter Tanner Houck, the Braves are in an absolute smash spot. The team has one of the highest implied totals on the slate and their entire lineup profiles well for power.

Houck is a 2017 first-round pick who has made precisely two starts in the Show and four above AA. In his 11.0 innings in 2020, Houck has a 4.31 xFIP to his 0.00 ERA and has benefited from a .136 BABIP against. The rookie has a nice 27.5% strikeout rate which somewhat alights with his low-20s rate in the minors. His 15.0% walk rate is entirely unsustainable against major league hitters however. The free pass was an issue for Houck in the minors as well, he could be in trouble here.

The Braves have baseball’s second best ISO against right-handed pitching at .228 and their WRC+ is 28% above average.  The team has a .276/.357/.504 slash and is second in the league with 84 home runs in the split. This team crushes right-handed pitching and they show relative patience, sitting eighth in the league with a 10.2% walk rate in the split. This is a big target again.

Keep an eye on the final lineup, the Braves could give a few key hitters the day off. The projected lineup has Ronald Acuna Jr. in his customary leadoff r0le. In 2020 the star hitter has 13 home runs and seven stolen bases while getting on base at a .411 clip in front of Freddie Freeman. The first baseman is in the two-spot in the projected lineup, making this one of the most effective one-two punches in all of baseball. Freeman has a WRC+ 83% above average in his 252 plate appearances this season, while hitting 12 home runs and getting on at a .456 clip. The duo costs a total of $11,400 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel and they’re the two most popular hitters.

Marcell Ozuna hits third and is having a better year than either of the previous pair. The outfielder has been reminding the world exactly how good he is all season long. He’s at .327/.419/.622 overall with 17 home runs and a .295 ISO. Against right-handed pitching, Ozuna has 10 of his home runs with a .330/.420/.568 slash. Ozuna slides right into the third spot in a pricey but not over-owned three man and is ideal for full stacks as well, despite the price.

If you didn’t do the quick math, the first three hitters in this lineup have an average of a .429 on-base percentage overall this season. That’s a ridiculous number for any lineup. Travis d’Arnaud and Adam Duvall have been major beneficiaries of hitting all season with these players on base.

d’Arnaud is a catcher who costs $4,800 on DraftKings and he is pulling just 3.6% ownership. He’s carrying a .323/.385/.540 slash with nine home runs so far in 2020 and has destroyed right-handed pitching for a .276 ISO and a WRC+ 76% above league average in his 143 opportunities in the split.

Duvall has outdone his teammate, and most of the league, with a .309 ISO against right-handed pitchers. 13 of the outfielder’s 16 home runs this season have come in same-handed matchups. Speaking of power in the split, switch-hitting second baseman Ozzie Albies has hit six home runs in just 87 plate appearances against righties this season and has a .268 ISO and a WRC+ 41 % above average in the split. Albies is the most expensive of this trio at $5,200, he and Duvall are drawing less than two percent ownership each, while d”Arnaud is below five percent. This is a fantastic three-man that will be sneakier and less expensive than the previous group of players. Mixing and matching the two for a full stack works as well.

Nick Markakis is a high-quality mix and match option and he costs just $3,600. In his 476 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since the start of 2019, the outfielder has just a .147 ISO but a WRC+ that is four percent above average. From a late spot in the lineup at a “take what we get” price point, that puts Markakis in play. I greatly prefer the third baseman hitting behind him in the projected lineup. Austin Riley has a .183 ISO and 17 home runs in his 383 plate appearances against same-handed pitching since the start of last season. At $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel that’s the kind of cheap power at a premium position that we can sink our teeth into when he’s going essentially unowned. On the blue site, savvy DFS players are onto Riley however, he’s up over 10% projected ownership early in the afternoon and should climb from there.

Last but not nearly least, shortstop Dansby Swanson is a fantastic wraparound play if he’s hitting ninth and he’ll find his way into my Braves stacks regardless of his place in the final lineup. The infielder costs just $4,200 on DraftKings and is cheap at $3,800 on FanDuel as well. Swanson has hit nine home runs in 2020, all of them against same-handed pitching. He has a .294/.367/.503 slash with a .209 ISO and a WRC+ 32% above average. Everything Swanson will do from the nine-spot works well as a secondary leadoff hitter coming back around for the devastating top of the lineup.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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