Welcome to what I’m tentatively calling Stack Slants, a new daily MLB DFS feature. Our goal here is going to be a quick review of lineups in the afternoon – hopefully with some confirmed information – in the hopes of finding a different approach to some stacks or a high quality low-owned stack that we can exploit. We’re going to be focusing primarily on Awesemo’s Top Stacks Tool as a frequent reference point.
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If you haven’t been playing MLB DFS you might not be familiar with how the stack tool works, but you should familiarize yourself with it. Personally, I think it’s one of the most powerful features on the site. Today isn’t a great example to kick things off with just two games on the slate, but normally I’ll review each team’s probability of being the day’s top stack and compare it with the projected team ownership that the tool provides. When we see ownership that is trending significantly below the team’s chances of being your best option, it’s a great spot. I’ll also be careful to review the various probability rankings in relation to one another. Some days there isn’t as much difference between third and seventh as you might think, indicting some undervalued opportunities.
Tonight most of that is out the window with just two games on the slate. Instead we’re just going to look for one creative approach to each of the four lineups to try to get as far afield as we can for these gargantuan GPPs. With news already breaking that the Nationals’ Juan Soto will be out following a positive COVID-19 test, and with an oddball lineup from the Yankees, we already have some new angles to examine. We’re just working with projected lineups for the late game; I’ll try to update on news if possible.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 2-3-5-6-7 – Muncy – Turner – Seager – Pollock – Pederson
There’s not really a sneaky creative angle into this Dodgers stack tonight. They’ll be massively popular. This approach attempts to get contrarian by leaving out the team’s two best bats while maintaining some quality and correlation. Making sure to get Joc Pederson on the end of that RBI chain is a must, given his prodigious power against right-handed pitching.
New York Yankees: 4-7 – Stanton – Gardner – Sanchez – Voit
The Yanks posted an unexpected lineup and it could create some opportunity. Aaron Hicks moves to leadoff, and a lot of ownership will follow him and build the stack down from there. This takes advantage of less-popular Brett Gardner hitting fifth and plays through the power of Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit, while tying in Giancarlo Stanton, my home run pick for the day. On DraftKings you can take a three-man version or tack on a chalky-but-awesome Gleyber Torres to it.
San Francisco Giants: 3-4-5-7-8 – Flores – Pence – Ruf – Dubon – Crawford
This lineup is not good. There’s really nothing to see here, but what we’re trying to achieve is finding any sort of differentiation in a bad but popular stack. I’m thinking we can take advantage of no one knowing anything about Dubon and people shying away from a late-lineup lefty-lefty matchup. Crawford has had successful seasons against lefties but cratered in recent years including a ghastly .236/.277/.321 with a WRC+ 40% below league average on the bad side of his platoon splits in 2019. This is a total dice roll and not for the faint of heart.
Washington Nationals: 7-9-1-2-3 – Cabrera – Robles – Turner – Eaton – Castro
You want to get different about things on a two-gamer? Taking a step further with my initial thought of a wrap-around stack to try to use the Nationals’ speed to our advantage, this adds Asdrubal Cabrera to the mix in the seventh spot and Starlin Castro bringing up the RBI spot behind the table-setters. It’s a very specific play, and we’re sacrificing plate appearances opportunities in the bottom of the lineup, so buyer beware here. Drop one of the five for a similar play on FanDuel, I would look to maintain the 9-1-2 portion.
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