Saturday, May 14, has all-day baseball being capped off with a nine-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on Yahoo, FanDuel and DraftKings. Use MLB DFS & Fantasy Baseball home page to find Awesemo’s FREE MLB cheat sheets, Terry McBride’s tournament strategy article, home run predictions and the daily fantasy industry leading MLB DFS projections.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Saturday, May 14
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Houston Astros at RHP Erick Fedde — 5.1 implied runs
On Friday, Houston raced out to quick five-run lead after the first inning against righty Josiah Gray on the strength of two home runs. Unfortunately, they only added one more to that total with a home run courtesy of Yordan Alvarez in the third inning — off of Gray. Variance and hit sequencing has been kind to Erick Fedde this season. Despite allowing a walk every other inning, and 20% more flyball outs than groundouts, he has a solid 3.90 ERA. However, Fedde has allowed 1.54 home runs per nine innings with a .174 ISO in his last 468 matchups against opposite-handed hitters. The theme has been the same with his last 475 righty-righty matchups, producing a 1.50 home-run-per-nine-innings rate with a .191 ISO. It is only a matter of time before opposing batsmen realize his pitch mix has a career-low 34.5% fastballs and 5.1% changes with a career high of 32.0% sliders and 28.4% cut fastballs.
Houston has one of the best offenses in the game with a strong mix of top-tier batters swinging the stick from both sides of the plate. Lefties Yordan Alvarez ($23) and Kyle Tucker ($18) are prime targets most nights, as are righties Alex Bregman ($16) and Jose Altuve ($19). This quartet is poised to find success against Fedde’s pitch offerings and they are a strong full stack or being utilized as one-offs. Yulieski Gurriel finally hit his first home run of the season last night, which could be an indication that the reigning American League batting champion is coming out of his slump. Aledmys Diaz ($7) and Chas McCormick ($11) can be employed to help average down the overall salary cap hit for full stacks.
Early Slate: Tampa Bay Rays vs. LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu — 4.3 implied runs
This afternoon 35-year-old Hyun-Jin Ryu will be taking the mound after missing a month with a sore forearm. Prior to being placed on the injured list, he struggled mightily in two starts, lasting only 7.1 innings with a 13.5 ERA courtesy of 1.77 baserunners per inning. Last Saturday, he made a rehabilitation start with the Triple-A Bison Bulls, throwing 74 pitches.
The focus should be on the Tampa Bay right-handed hitters as Ryu has suffered a .191 ISO in his last 539 opposite-handed matchups. Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena are the priority targets in the top half of the order. Harold Ramirez and Manny Margot are both solid against southpaws and depending on where they are in the order, they can be used in full Tampa stacks. Regardless of where he is in the lineup, Mike Zunino — and his improbable .481 ISO in his last 151 plate appearances against southpaws — should be in our lineups.
Late Slate: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at RHP Adam Oller — 4.3 implied runs
The only question will be which of the Halos superstars are in the lineup for the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. Adam Oller has made three starts so far this season and each has been a disaster. Just to underscore how bad it has been, he has completed just 9.2 innings despite throwing 219 pitches. The eight walks are a major issue and combined with four home runs, he has an 11.17 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. The 27-year-old righty spent three years pitching for Northwestern State University in the Southland Conference before being a 20th-round selection of the Pirates in the 2016 MLB Draft. Since then he has pitched for four different MLB organizations in the minors as well as in Australia and the Independent League. If things continue on their current trajectory, he will likely be released before the All-Star break.
Depending on who is in the lineup, the usual suspects will be the main targets. Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon are the obvious plays. Next up will be Taylor Ward — not to be confused with teammate Tyler Wade — who has been doing his best Trout impersonation, along with Jared Walsh, who is finally putting his pretty power stroke to good use. Brandon Marsh is a wild card, though he could see a boost in the batting order, depending on which regulars may get a night off.
Top MLB DFS Target: RHP Chris Bassitt vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $47 | FanDuel $10,100 | DraftKings $10,300
This is a lofty salary for veteran Chris Bassitt, though he has been nails this season with the 13th-best ERA (2.45), 12th-best WHIP (0.95) and 23rd-most strikeouts (38) among all qualified starting pitchers in his inaugural campaign as a Met. The Seattle lineup is desperately missing Mitch Haniger. Even the retirement of Kyle Seager has left a gap in the offense that has not been filled by slumping off season acquisition Jesse Winker, who has just one home run and six total extra-base hits with nearly a quarter of the season in the books. Eugenio Suarez is hitting for power — when he makes contact — as his 33.3% strikeout rate against fellow righties is abysmal. Adam Frazier and Ty France have been making contact, but their power upside is lacking and the young Seattle hitters like Julio Rodriguez and Jared Kelenic are struggling … to say the least. Lastly, the primes of Steven Souza and Mike Ford have long since passed and they are easy outs at the bottom of the order.
Bassitt should also be considered in the MLB player props market. Tonight, the veteran hurler has a 5.5 over/under for his strikeout prop and the Awesemo projections have him for 6.4, which indicates a potential success rate of nearly 63%. In five of his six starts this season, Bassitt has notched at least six strikeouts.
Secondary MLB DFS Target: RHP Zac Gallen vs. Chicago Cubs — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $46 | FanDuel $9,900 | DraftKings $9,800
Depending on your risk tolerance or desire to roster batters from the Coors Field Extravaganza, rookie George Kirby can be had for a 16% or better discount from Zac Gallen or Bassitt depending on your DFS site of choice. This will be his second start in The Show, but it is a tough matchup against the Mets, who are creating runs 21% more efficiently than league average against right-handed pitchers this season.
Gallen has a matchup against the Cubs, who have been struggling and are creating runs almost 10% worse than league average with a bottom-five .110 ISO and a 25.2% strikeout rate against righties that is sixth-worst. The strikeouts have always been there for Gallen, and it seems like he is on track to achieving the promise he demonstrated in the 2019 and 2020 seasons before backsliding last year. The Chase Field roof is slated to be closed tonight, which is also in Gallen’s favor.
Early MLB DFS Target: LHP Eric Lauer at Miami Marlins — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $48 | FanDuel $10,300 | DraftKings $9,600
After yet another strong outing, Eric Lauer may actually be in the midst of a breakout season. Each of his last four appearances have resulted in a quality start, and all six of his earned runs have been the result of home runs — three of them being solo shots. The Marlins will be running out a nearly full right-handed lineup against the 25-year-old southpaw, but if he can mitigate the results of Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia, Jesus Aguilar and Garrett Cooper, he can reap the rewards of the 31.0% strikeout rate of the projected Miami lineup.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & Weather Notes for the Saturday, May 14 Fantasy Baseball Slate
There are no major precipitation risks for Saturday, though keep an eye on the games in Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Pittsburgh and Washington as roving showers could create a delay situation. Coors Field and the West Coast games are looking at temperatures in the 80s, as are parts of the Midwest.
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