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MLB DFS Tournament Picks & Home Runs 4/29/22

Terry McBride



The 13-game Friday main slate is going to swing on a broken Coors Field game. The industry has decided that the projected lineup for the visiting Cincinnati Reds is worth just an average salary of $2,600 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel. This “play anyone you want” approach is going to lead to significant popularity for the underwhelming Reds lineup, the team has one of the highest implied totals on the slate in their matchup against a contact-based pitcher. The ownership on the discounted team is currently not as high as one might expect, but they are already at negative leverage and it seems like they will get more popular as the public starts building lineups through the day. The rest of the slate includes a number of interesting mid-range pitching options in good spots, as well as a few top-end starters in tough matchups. Overall, the pitching slate is more balanced while there are a few clear spots for offensive upside and power at the plate. Getting different with lineup construction on a slate of this size is a fairly easy task, there are a number of pitchers who look similar at a range of prices, making it easy to mix and match for leverage and upside. Let’s get to the best MLB DFS picks today for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.

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Best MLB DFS Tournament Strategy & Picks Today

Top Home Run Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one or two out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, this will give each team one of the top choices. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

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Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Seth Beer — 5.83

Atlanta Braves: Adam Duvall — 8.52

Baltimore Orioles: Cedric Mullins — 6.31

Boston Red Sox: Trevor Story — 10.47

Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 5.84

Chicago White Sox: Gavin Sheets — 3.20

Cincinnati Reds: Nick Senzel — 3.33

Cleveland Guardians: Franmil Reyes — 8.70

Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 13.40

Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson — 8.36

Houston Astros: Chas McCormick — 6.72

Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. — 8.48

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 9.53

Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 10.35

Milwaukee Brewers: Hunter Renfroe — 9.90

Minnesota Twins: Ryan Jeffers — 4.14

New York Mets: Francisco Lindor — 8.04

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 13.43

Oakland Athletics: Seth Brown — 9.28

Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Schwarber — 14.01

San Francisco Giants: Darin Ruf — 2.24

St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 13.90

Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 6.94

Texas Rangers: Corey Seager — 5.62

Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 11.87

Washington Nationals: Maikel Franco — 4.46

Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

Free expert MLB home run picks and predictions today 4/29/22

MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment

Today’s slate looks like it will play fairly cleanly, with the lone exception of the game between the Yankees and Royals in Kansas City. That contest is facing rain in the forecast, but not until about two hours after the scheduled start time. The Yankees have a pitcher who loves to work at a fast pace on the mound tonight, so the teams could easily get through five innings before a significant amount of rain arrives. The forecast looks like the weather will remain playable into the evening, but the potential for a start and stop or a shortened game could put a ceiling on the projections for hitters and pitchers if things break the wrong way. Monitor the forecast going into lock and adapt accordingly.

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MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The fascinating Friday pitching slate has options of wide-ranging quality at prices that land all over the map from site to site. On talent and name recognition, Lucas Giolito and Aaron Nola are probably the top-two starters on the board, but they are both facing difficult matchups with Giolito’s White Sox hosting the Angels and Nola’s Phillies visiting Queens to take on the Mets. Giolito tops the probability board by a thin margin over the field, while Nola ranks more as one of the pack tonight. The slate includes veteran hurler Adam Wainwright in a home start against the lowly Diamondbacks, as well as Noah Syndergaard who will be opposing Giolito for the Angels and facing a somewhat depleted White Sox lineup. A potentially significant inflection point for the slate will be taking the mound in Yankees road grey this evening, as Nestor Cortes looks to continue his baffling run of quality at a dramatically inflated price across the MLB DFS industry. The crafty lefty is not drawing much belief from the public at his price, but his pace-and-timing-focused approach to pitching has kept hitters off balance for the better part of a calendar year now; Cortes may be worth the faith at low single-digit GPP ownership. After Frankie Montas, who is set apart from the field slightly in his matchup against the Guardians, a wide range of veteran quality exists on this slate, any of Corey Kluber, Alex Wood, Tyler Anderson, or Aaron Civale could believably deliver a relevant SP2 start, while young pitchers like Ian Anderson and Tylor Megill rank out similarly in tough matchups.

White Sox ace Lucas Giolito is drawing attention on both sites due to a relatively low price both for his talent and by comparison to other options on the slate. Giolito ranks as the only pitcher with better than a 20% probability of being a top-2 starter on DraftKings, where he is pulling in a 33.5% ownership projection. On the FanDuel slate, Giolito still tops the board, but it is with just a 7.4% probability of being the top individual pitcher on the single starter site. For comparison purposes, 12th-ranked Aaron Civale has a 4.0% chance of being the top pitcher. Giolito is projected for a 21.7% ownership share, while that is a playable level of popularity it is noteworthy that it sits at nearly three times his likelihood of being the best option on the large slate. Giolito is off to a strong start over his first eight innings this season, but he had a stint on the injured list in between his first and second starts after suffering an abdominal strain in his opening day outing. In that start, on April 8th, Giolito threw 61 pitches before exiting with six strikeouts. In his return last Sunday, the right-hander struck out nine Twins hitters but threw only 76 pitches in a four-inning stint. Between the weight of public popularity, the relatively flat pitching probability board and the potential for a limitation to around 85 pitches, there could be reasons to look around for other options. Giolito is inarguably worth the salary, even in a matchup against the breakout Angels lineup. The righty had a 3.75 xFIP and a 27.9% strikeout rate last season and he currently sits at a 44.1% rate over his first eight innings of 2022. The Angels lineup presents a threat, the team’s active roster has a .202 ISO and just a 22.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the early part of the season, ranking them in the middle of the league for strikeouts but at the very top for power output. Giolito is worth roster spots, but undercutting the massive popularity in favor of spreading out on a broad slate seems reasonable.

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Veteran Frankie Montas is taking the mound in his pitcher-friendly home park with the Guardians in town, he ranks second by his probability of success on either site, but he is crushingly popular. Montas is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, where he is still pulling in a 20.5% ownership share that sits by far the second highest on the site and nearly three times his likelihood of being the top starter. On DraftKings, Montas is projected to be nearly twice as popular as he is likely to land in the top-2 at the end of the night. The righty costs just $8,100 on that side of town, pushing his popularity to a slate-leading 42.7%. Montas has a 3.28 ERA and a very solid 2.67 xFIP with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 4.3% walk rate to start the season, picking up right where he left off with last year’s 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate over 187 innings in 32 starts. Montas posted a 3.64 xFIP last year while inducing a 13.7% swinging-strike rate, but he did allow premium contact at an inflated rate. Opposing hitters managed an 8.7% barrel rate with a 42.2% hard-hit percentage at an 11.6-degree average launch angle, but Montas’ yielded merely a 2.57% home run rate. He will be taking on a Cleveland Guardians squad that has been good at limiting strikeouts, including early this season. So far in 2022, the Guardians’ active roster is tied for fourth in the split with a 20.7% strikeout rate against righties, and they have a .181 ISO that sits fourth on its own. The team has created runs 31% better than average against righties so far this season as well, the third-best collective WRC+ mark in the league, all of which represent a big uptick from how this team performed in the aggregate last season. This same active roster compiled a .168 ISO with a still-good 22.6% strikeout rate against righties last year while creating runs 4% below average. The Guardians have over-achieved early on, but they could pose a threat to a negatively leveraged Montas. As with Giolito, the pitcher warrants ownership on talent alone, it would in no way be a surprise to see him as a top-2 option at the end of the night, but with so many similarly ranked choices at less popularity, an undercut to the public weight seems appropriate.

Enigmatic Nestor Cortes costs $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he will be under-owned on both sites. Cortes has molded himself into the definition of a crafty lefty, he sits in just the 92 mph range with his fastball, while focusing on changing the timing, arm angle, velocity and break on a variety of pitches that he can deploy in any count to either hand. Cortes has kept hitters off-balance to dramatic effect this season while finding a pitch mix that has been highly effective at finding strikeouts. Cortes has struck out 25 of the first 56 hitters he has faced this season, a ridiculous 44.6% rate. If you believe he is that pitcher, we have an NFT of a bridge to sell you. Cortes may have found something in his 108.2-inning tenure with the Yankees, the cutter that he added last year changed the entire nature of his pitch mix, but he is going to come back to Earth and settle into something in the range of 25-28% strikeouts if the Yankees remain lucky. Cortes’ stuff is generally not elite, he may get by all season with craft and guile, but it is difficult to justify the prices at which he is available on tonight’s slate. However, with just 1.9% of the public projected to roster him on FanDuel and 8.8% on DraftKings, Cortes is the top leverage spot on the mound and he looks worthy of inclusion in a wide range of MLB DFS lineup builds on today’s slate. The lefty is facing a Royals lineup that is very good at limiting strikeouts in the split, Kansas City has just a 16.7% strikeout rate this season and the active roster compiled a 3rd ranked 19.4% rate against southpaws last year. The Royals are not good at anything else at the plate. The team had a .147 collective ISO with a 2.97% home run rate and a 100 WRC+ against lefties last season and they have a collective .085 ISO while creating runs 22% worse than average in the small sample against lefties so far this year. Cortes may have a ceiling on the strikeouts tonight, but he stands a good chance of pitching through several innings without taking damage, and he could provide a slate-relevant fantasy score. All of this is, of course, with an eye on the weather report in Kansas City. With rain in the forecast several hours after game time, there is concern around an in-game delay capping innings.

Veteran Adam Wainwright is drawing efficient ownership on the DraftKings slate tonight. He sits at $9,400 with popularity in line with his probability of being a top-2 option. The ageless righty drops to an $8,500 price tag on the FanDuel slate, pushing his popularity to around double his probability of being the highest-scoring pitcher. Wainwright is facing a Diamondbacks active roster that is second worst in baseball with a 26.1% strikeout rate against righties so far this season. Arizona compiled a 23.6% rate to rank 20th in last year’s numbers, and the team’s active roster was largely powerless, with a 29th-ranked .143 ISO and a last-place 2.25% home run rate in the split. The Diamondbacks compiled a WRC+ 16% below average against right-handed pitching last season, and the team has been 13% below average so far this year. Wainwright is in an excellent spot against this team. The righty has made four starts already this season, putting together a 3.11 xFIP and a 24.2% strikeout rate in 21 innings. Wainwright threw more than 90 pitches in each of his last two outings, so he is essentially fully stretched out and should pitch deep into the game while challenging for both the win and a quality start in a matchup against Madison Bumgarner, who this space still believes in as a starter, but not in this spot against the Cardinals’ loaded righty bats. Extending to around or even slightly above the field, even at negative leverage on FanDuel, seems reasonable with Wainwright in this matchup.

Cleveland’s Aaron Civale is one of the slate’s less expensive options at just $6,900 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel. He lands around the middle of the board by his probability of leading the slate in scoring while landing at positive leverage on both sites. Civale will be opposing Frankie Montas in the pitcher’s park and he will have the added benefit of facing a weak Athletics lineup. Civale is not typically a premium option, he had just a 19.9% strikeout rate last season while pitching to a 4.32 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP with a limited 9.4% swinging-strike rate. So far this season, the righty is at about his career average with a 20.4% strikeout rate over 10.1 innings in three starts. He has a ridiculous 9.58 ERA and a bad 5.29 xFIP, though much of that came in a three-inning shellacking at the hands of the Yankees in his most recent outing. Prior to that 61-pitch start, Civale threw 74 pitches in each of two outings, striking out five Giants hitters over four innings in the middle game. Civale is not a comfortable play to make, it seems unlikely that he will be worthwhile on FanDuel, but he is the lone value starter at positive leverage on both sites tonight and he is facing an Athletics active roster that has created runs 7% worse than average while striking out at a 24.9% rate against righties so far this year. Oakland has a .121 ISO in the split so far this season, but the current active roster was better in the split in last year’s collective numbers. Civale is in no way safe, he has a low ceiling but the floor should be relatively reliable and he is a low-cost low-owned option.

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Coors Field

The Coors Field game was mentioned in the introduction to this article as potentially the critical inflection point for the entire slate this evening. While that is frequently true about Colorado’s home games, the absurd pricing from site to site tonight makes it even more dramatic. The easily affordable Reds are leading the slate by both their probability of being the top-scoring stack and the top value stack of the night. Cincinnati is at a -5.1 leverage score on DraftKings and a -1.2 on FanDuel, for these salaries they are arguably not popular enough. While the inclination is often to get away from chalky Coors Field bats, the value ratings of Reds bats simply cannot be ignored on this slate, even at popularity getting to a $2,800 Joey Votto, $2,700 Tommy Pham and $2,900 Tyler Naquin in the heart of the order in a Coors game against contact-based Antonio Senzatela is difficult to bypass. Jonathan India is the most expensive Reds bat at just $3,500 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel, he is easily worthy of inclusion in most Reds stacks. The second baseman hit 21 home runs and stole 12 bases in 631 plate appearances last year while creating runs 22% better than average. The back end of the lineup should include options like Nick Senzel, a post-hype upside player who costs just $2,600 on both sites. Mike Moustakas and Colin Moran are familiar veterans who hit from the left side of the plate for a fair amount of power when healthy and going right. Moustakas costs just $2,100 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel, though it has been a long minute since his lefty thunder could be referred to as reliable. The Reds are popular and likely to gain ownership as the day goes on, the most reasonable approach is still to leave their significant value on the table in favor of the gigantic field, but they help pay for essentially any other lineup construction one may desire. On a 13-game slate, it is easy enough to click the Cincinnati value into the same lineup as premium options while still getting away from public ownership.

On the other side of this contest, the Rockies are dramatically under-owned as the third-ranked stack on both sites. Colorado is facing rookie Hunter Greene, an undeniably talented young pitcher who has a plus-plus fastball and an aggressive approach on the mound. Greene is out to a good start over his first three Major League outings, he has a 5.27 ERA but a 4.02 xFIP and a 3.84 xERA. Greene has racked up a 26.2% strikeout rate but he has also allowed a 9.8% walk rate to opposing hitters, which has been an issue throughout his minor league career as well. The 22-year-old has a 1.39 WHIP and he has allowed a 10.5% barrel rate and a 39.5% hard-hit percentage in 38 batted ball events so far this season. Greene will be making his first appearance at spacious Coors Field, a park that can be murder on a pitcher who allows too many opportunities, simply by virtue of its dimensions, let alone the impact on vertical movement that may wreak havoc on a young starter who has trouble finding the zone at times. Greene could mow down Rockies hitters with his heat, but there is little justification for the Rockies to all be at single-digit ownership on this slate. Playable Rockies bats include Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron from atop the lineup. Three of those four hitters are pulling above-average marks in the power index, and they all come at less than 10% ownership for typical Coors Field prices. Lefty Ryan McMahon has multi-position eligibility on the blue site and he is underpriced at $4,300 on DraftKings. McMahon and fellow lefty Samuel Hilliard are interesting power options from later in the lineup in the split, Hilliard costs less than $3,000 on both sites and he is not projected for significant popularity. The rest of the Rockies lineup is filled out by price and positional offsets that can be used in a limited capacity. The focus is on the known commodities from the top through the middle of the lineup.

New York Yankees

The unchanging assemblage of some of the league’s best power bats is going to keep the Yankees DFS-relevant on almost every slate this season. In the interest of time, this space is going to be limited to merely mentioning that they are on the road in an excellent matchup for power against Kris Bubic, a soft-tossing lefty. If the game plays, the usual suspects from the New York lineup are all in play for stacks on both sites, they will be popular but worthwhile with price and popularity discounts available on players like Joey Gallo, who never suffers against lefties, and Gleyber Torres, if he is in the lineup. Overall, the Yankees are not nearly as popular as their upside suggests they should be, only Aaron Judge is pulling aggressive popularity ratings.

Atlanta Braves

Did you see the return of superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. for Atlanta last night? If not, you will have to wait another day because he is not playing tonight. Regardless, the Braves bats look to be in a good spot, they are pulling in positive leverage on FanDuel but they slip badly into negative leverage on DraftKings, where all of the team’s top hitters are at or around 10% popularity. That ownership is playable as long as the focus remains on differentiation in other lineup spots, but it is not ideal. The Braves are easy to roster at these list prices in a matchup against Garrett Richards though, the pitcher had a 4.71 xFIP and just an 18.6% strikeout rate last season, and he allowed a gargantuan 47.1% hard-hit rate. To a power-focused club like Atlanta that could be a major target for tonight’s slate. The Braves lineup plays well from one through eight, with options like Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna up top and lower-owned power from Adam Duvall, Travis d’Arnaud and Dansby Swanson late in the lineup.

Houston Astros

With a touch of positive leverage and generally low raw individual ownership totals up and down their loaded lineup, the Astros look like a strong spot to get sneaky with premium bats on tonight’s slate. Houston is facing lefty Yusei Kikuchi in Toronto’s homer-happy park tonight. The lefty allowed a 47% hard-hit rate with an 11% barrel rate and a 4.0% home run rate last year and he has yielded a 44.7% hard-hit rate this season while pitching to a 5.33 xFIP over his first three starts. Kikuchi elevated his strikeouts to 24.5% over the last year and the short 2020 season, but he was at just 16.1% as a rookie and he has slipped back to a 15.8% mark early this year, he seems very targetable for a team like Houston that excels in the split.

Projected leadoff hitter Chas McCormick has been featured in this space several times, he had an under-appreciated 48.7% hard-hit percentage with a 10.2% barrel rate while slashing .257/.319/.449 with a .190 ISO over 320 plate appearances last year and he is off to a .278/.304/.407 start to this season while creating runs 14% above average in his 56 plate appearances. McCormick has not flashed his power upside yet, he has hit just one home run while making hard contact in 41.9% of his batted ball events, but he has cut his strikeouts from an aggressive 32.5% last year to just 19.6% so far. At the top of the lineup, McCormick makes for a great correlation piece with individual upside.

Lefty Michael Brantley historically suffers somewhat in the split against same-handed pitching, but he is likely to be in his customary spot in this lineup and he is projected for virtually no ownership across the industry. Brantley would be a reasonable correlation and differentiation play, for his career he is slashing .269/.324/.367 against lefties with just a .098 ISO, but he is not entirely inept. In 28 plate appearances against lefties this season, Brantley is slashing .250/.333/.375 with a .125 ISO while creating runs 19% above average. That limited sample is not at all real, but it serves to illustrate that in any given matchup this hitter is not someone for whom total abandonment based on platoon splits truly makes sense.

Alex Bregman is a $4,900 third baseman on DraftKings and a $3,700 option at the position on FanDuel, he is pulling in less than 5% popularity on both sites tonight. Bregman has hit three home runs in his first 77 plate appearances of the season, posting a .188 ISO along with his .250/.364/.438 triple slash while creating runs 44% above average by WRC+. Bregman has matching 15.6% walk and strikeout rates so far this year, he is an excellent hitter who is finding his way back to his old power stroke. In 2019 this hitter blasted 41 home runs with a .296 ISO, he had 31 home runs with a .246 mark the year before, he is an elite bat when all is well.

The Astros have an annoying habit of ducking bad lefties with Yordan Alvarez from time to time, but he is in the projected lineup and should see action with star power missing in the form of Jose Altuve. Alvarez is one of the league’s top young power hitters, he knocked 33 long balls out of the yard last season, putting up a .253 ISO in his 598 plate appearances and he posted a 15.9% barrel rate with a massive 54.2% hard-hit percentage. Alvarez has hit four home runs in 58 plate appearances already this season. He has a .275 ISO and he has created runs 48% better than average while walking 12.1% of the time and striking out just 13.8%. If the strikeout and walk rates are somehow sustained, Alvarez becomes Juan Soto with these numbers. While that is less than likely, this hitter does have more to give than the already excellent season he provided in 2021. Alvarez belongs in the Astros lineup in every matchup and he should be in most Astros stacks for MLB DFS at low ownership if he is.

The always underrated Yuli Gurriel hits from the right side of the plate and costs just $3,600 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel. Gurriel is slashing just .203/.217/.322 to start the season, the power and productivity have been out so far, but he has just a 13.3% strikeout rate and a 1.7% walk rate, so the ball is constantly in play. Gurriel is suffering from a .235 batting average on balls in play, last year he benefitted from a .336 mark, but the truth is likely to settle around his career .291/.334/.464 triple-slash. For no ownership and little salary, Gurriel is fine to build into MLB DFS stacks against a middling lefty.

The best part about struggling stars is rostering them at discounted prices and ownership while the field complains about them. Outfielder Kyle Tucker hit 30 home runs and stole 14 bases while slashing .294/.359/.557 with a .263 ISO in 567 plate appearances last year. This season, Tucker is off to just a .191/.257/.382 start and he has created runs 10% below average, but he has four home runs, two stolen bases and a .191 ISO. Tucker will absolutely be fine, a turnaround is on the way and it pays to be early, particularly when the player can still provide power on any slate. Tucker costs just $4,100 on DraftKings, where he is projected for 2.5% ownership against a same-handed pitcher, he has a 4.4% ownership projection for a mere $3,000 on FanDuel, he is better than all of these marks.

Flexible infielder Aledmys Diaz has been a useful piece in spots early this season, particularly with his triple-position eligibility on the FanDuel slate. Diaz is a second baseman on DraftKings, where he costs $3,500 and is rightly just 1.3% owned. On FanDuel, he adds second and third base eligibility and costs just $200 over the minimum. Diaz is slashing just .156/.240/.244 with one home run and he has created runs 48% below average, but he makes things work in differentiated combinations in a variety of stacks, which keeps him in play on the blue site. He is a better hitter than that in general, last season Diaz turned in a .259/.317/.405 triple slash and created runs 1% below average.

Young Jeremy Pena has three home runs and a .222 ISO to start his career replacing Carlos Correa in the middle of the infield for the Astros. Pena is slashing .238/.319/.460 and he has created runs 34% above average while hitting in a variety of spots in the lineup. The young infielder has the power and upside to push a stack over the top from wherever he is hitting, yet he is projected below 1% popularity on DraftKings and he costs just $2,900 on FanDuel. Pena can be added to a wide array of Astros lineups as needed.

Catcher Martin Maldonado is inexpensive and low-owned where the position is required, he is not a standout player on most slates.

Home Run Prediction Today: Kyle Schwarber — Philadelphia Phillies

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Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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