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MLB DFS Tournament Picks & Home Runs 4/26/22

Terry McBride



An 11-game Tuesday main slate of MLB DFS action has a pair of games with ugly weather conditions, a few spots with premium starting pitching options, a broad mid-range and more than a few quality stacking opportunities against middling arms that should yield outbursts of offense. The slate includes a number of very low run totals where conditions and starting pitching are limiting scoring expectations, the highest run total on the board in Vegas is the 9.5 found attached to the game between the Astros and Rangers and also the contest between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The slate bottoms out with a lowly 6.5 run total in the late game, a matchup that sees the lowly Athletics taking on one of the top lefty starters in the league in a Bay Area battle in San Francisco. By utilizing the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers tool on a slate such as today’s, where a lot of spots look similar through the mid-range of both pricing and quality, one can find the best opportunities that are also not getting the attention warranted by the public. With an abundance of choices, it should be relatively easy to get away from the field while still rostering the upside of quality top-of-the-lineup bats, hitting the bullseye on the correct combinations is the trickier part.

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Top Home Run Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one or two out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, this will give each team one of the top choices. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

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Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Seth Beer — 5.03

Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 6.70

Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 11.13

Boston Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec — 7.13

Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 5.25

Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson — 5.41

Cleveland Guardians: Franmil Reyes — 13.17

Detroit Tigers: Javier Baez — 9.90

Houston Astros: Chas McCormick — 7.17

Kansas City Royals: Edward Olivares — 5.39

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout — 13.16

Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 10.67

Miami Marlins: Avisail Garcia — 12.48

Minnesota Twins: Kyle Garlick — 6.07

New York Mets: Mark Canha — 6.97

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 16.34

Oakland Athletics: Stephen Piscotty — 4.02

San Francisco Giants: Wilmer Flores — 7.81

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 5.59

Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun — 7.24

Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 14.04

Washington Nationals: Nelson Cruz — 7.43

Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment

The weather forecast could have an important impact on Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate. There is rain threatening the Orioles vs Yankees game and, more specifically, the Marlins vs Nationals game. Washington is one of the teams with a quick trigger finger when it comes to rainouts, so the situation in D.C. certainly warrants monitoring. The game at Yankee Stadium seems likely to start dry, with weather moving in during the contest. This could have a major impact on the depth to which newly rebuilt starter Luis Severino can pitch, the Yankees are very unlikely to allow him to retake the mound if he has to sit through an extended rain delay. There are postponement risks in both spots. The remaining games on the slate are clear from any extreme weather conditions.

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MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

With rain in the forecast in the Bronx, Yankees hurler Luis Severino could potentially be in for a short outing tonight, but ignoring that risk he projects as the second-most likely starter to land in the top-2 on DraftKings and he ranks second on the single-pitcher FanDuel slate as well. In both cases, the starter who lands above him – and by a fair number of percentage points from site to site – is San Francisco southpaw Carlos Rodon, an elite starter pitching against a bad lineup. After the pair of premium pitchers, the slate also includes strong options like Chris Bassitt, who will be facing a stout but heavily right-handed Cardinals lineup; Kevin Gausman, who will be challenged in his new hitter-friendly home park by no less a juggernaut of an offense in the Red Sox; and Max Fried will tackle the Cubs in a home start that is drawing a fair amount of public attention. The list of playable starters continues through the mid-range with riskier options like the eternally unfortunate Eduardo Rodriguez; Sandy Alcantara and Josiah Gray if their head-to-head matchup does not get rained out; and both sides of the Guardians vs Angels game as well. The bottom of the board is comprised of pitchers who are better to target with bats.

San Francisco’s Carlos Rodon stands 18 percentage points above the second-most likely starter to land in the top-2 on DraftKings and he is more than six percentage points more likely to be the top option on the FanDuel slate. Rodon is projected for more than 60% popularity on the DraftKings slate and he will be in roughly 40% of lineups on the blue site, both marks far outstrip his probability number in a raw sense, but Rodon is a spectacular option on this slate and one for whom it may make sense to simply eat chalk and get different with bats. The outstanding southpaw’s only limitation in previous seasons has been his innings pitched totals, between injury and management of his precious left arm, Rodon typically falls short of the standards required for Cy Young Award contention, but he has all the requisite talent. Last season, Rodon threw 132.2 innings in 24 starts, pitching to a stellar 34.6% strikeout rate with a 3.17 xFIP and a 0.96 WHIP while inducing a 15% swinging-strike rate. He was quite good at limiting premium contact as well, hitters managed just a 6.6% barreled ball rate and a 36.1% hard-hit percentage against Rodon, his ability to avoid trouble, miss bats and generate strikeouts makes him an excellent option on any MLB DFS slate. On a slate where the elite pitcher will be facing an Oakland active roster that compiled numbers one would expect from a double-A squad facing a Major League lefty, he is the absolutely clear-cut best option of the day at any price and popularity. The active roster for the Athletics compiles what would be a league-worst .107 ISO against lefties in last season’s data, they hit home runs at a 2.06% rate in the split, 29th overall, and they created runs 34% worse than average against southpaws, by far the worst mark in baseball against either hand. The Athletics compiled WRC+ of just 66 sits 13 percentage points below the 29th-ranked Pirates in the split. This season, the same active roster has a 101 WRC+ that ranks 16th in the league, with the team creating runs 1% better than average, but in a smaller than average sample size against lefties so far. Oakland has a collective .162 ISO in the split so far this season and they have struck out at a 25.7% rate against lefties. There is very little to fear in rostering Rodon in giant proportions tonight, even with the bulk of the public on his shoulders, the lefty should post a dominant start this evening.

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Yankees starter Luis Severino has pitched well in 13 innings over his first three starts of the season, his first regular action since throwing 191.1 innings in 2018. The righty’s career has been mired with injuries, but when he is healthy he can be one of the better starters in the American League, boasting a 95-mph fastball with a nasty slider-changeup combination. Severino has a 2.08 ERA with a 3.26 xFIP and 2.99 xERA over his first three starts, and he has struck out opposing hitters at a 25% clip while walking 7.1%. The innings management path has been clear early on, Severino faced 14 hitters over three innings and 65 pitches in his first start, and he made it through five innings and 21 hitters in each of his subsequent two outings, throwing 83 and then 88 pitches. The starter should be expected to reach around a similar 90-pitch threshold with an upside to 100 if all goes perfectly, but the game will need to stay dry and he will need to dazzle to reach that level. If the rains come and there is an extended in-game delay, Severino could see his night end very early. The talented righty ranks second overall on both sites, he has a strong probability of being one of the top-scoring MLB DFS pitchers this evening, but he is not without a touch of risk. Despite those considerations, Severino is projected for ownership that lands higher than his probability of being a top-2 option on DraftKings and nearly double his probability of landing atop the heap on FanDuel. The matchup is a good one, with confidence that he will pitch deep into the game there would be little reason not to deploy the talented starter against an Orioles lineup that had a .173 ISO that ranked 15th, a 96 WRC+ that was 23rd and a 3.42% home run rate that landed 14th in baseball last season. Perhaps most importantly, the Orioles active roster struck out at a 25.2% rate against righties last year, the 27th ranked out of the sport’s 30 teams in the split. So far this year, the strikeout rate stands at 24.6% and the Orioles have created runs 21% worse than average, they pose less of a threat to Severino’s fantasy scoring potential than the raindrops do on tonight’s slate.

Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has so far proved the naysayers wrong, including this one. The righty signed with Toronto in the offseason, returning to the AL East division that gave him nightmares when he was with the Orioles, rather than re-signing where he found the most success in San Francisco. Gausman was excellent for the Giants last year, he made 33 starts and turned in a 2.81 ERA with a 3.28 xFIP over 192 innings. He struck out hitters at a 29.3% rate while walking just 6.5%, though he did yield premium contact with a 40.9% hard-hit percentage. So far this year, Gausman has made three highly successful starts, including one against this same Red Sox lineup. Gausman appears to be fully stretched out as well, he made it through eight innings and faced 28 hitters in that recent Red Sox game, striking out eight while allowing just one lonely run. The righty struck out nine Yankees over 5.2 innings the start before that and five Rangers in 5.0 in his first outing of the year, he is essentially in midseason form. Gausman has a 2.89 ERA and an excellent 1.82 xFIP so far this season, he has actually lost a bit of upside to bad defense and happenstance. He has boosted his strikeout rate to 30.1% in the small sample and he is amazingly yet to walk a hitter, with a perfect Dean Wormer 0.0% in the stat. Gausman is also yet to allow a home run this season, he has yielded just a 3.9% barrel rate although he does have an inflated 45.1% hard-hit percentage on a 10.3-degree average launch angle. Setting aside his recent success against this team, Gausman will be facing a loaded Red Sox lineup. The active roster struck out at a 17th-ranked 23.5% rate against righties last season, but they had a .192 ISO that ranked sixth, a 3.59% home run rate that was 12th-best, and they created runs 4% better than average in the split. The Red Sox are a tough opponent in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but Gausman has answered the doubters and he is deserving of lineup shares in the tricky spot. Finding the talented right-hander ranked third on the DraftKings slate by his probability of landing in the top-2 while also coming in under-owned makes him an interesting tournament play. The same is true on FanDuel, where Gausman ranks fourth with a 7% probability of being the top starter but projects for just 2.9% popularity. With Rodon and Severino slated for nearly 60% of the pitching ownership on FanDuel and an 85% share on DraftKings, making any other decision on the mound is a quick path to lineup differentiation.

Another starter who came to a new team after a successful year in the Bay Area is Chris Bassitt who was dealt to the Mets after posting a 25% strikeout rate with a 3.93 xFIP and 1.06 WHIP over 157.1 innings last year. Bassitt induced a 10.1% swinging-strike rate and he was excellent at limiting premium contact. Opposing hitters managed merely a 32.7% hard-hit rate with a 6.5% barrel rate against Bassitt last season, contact that the starter turned into just a 2.35% home run rate allowed. Bassitt has thrown 18 innings so far for his new team, pitching to a 3.00 ERA with a 2.90 xFIP and an increased 28.6% strikeout rate in the small sample. He has continued the trend of limiting premium contact, so far this year Bassitt has allowed just a 31.1% hard-hit percentage and a 6.7% barrel rate in 45 batted ball events, and hitters are managing just an 83.5 mph average exit velocity against the righty. Bassitt is facing a St. Louis roster that gets a lot of their production from the long ball, which could make for an interesting meeting of roads. The heavily right-handed Cardinals’ active roster had a .162 ISO and a 3.21% home run rate against right-handed pitching last season, they are already somewhat limited in the split and now they will face a pitcher who excels at keeping the ball in the yard on weak contact. St. Louis had a 20.5% strikeout rate against righties last season, a mark that lands third best in baseball in the split, they are not easy to sit down with strikes, but Bassitt may have a clear enough path to a safe start and he has pitched six innings in each of his three starts, so the depth should reliably be there to chase a win and quality start bonus in the contest. Bassitt ranks fourth on the DraftKings slate and third on FanDuel, and he is under-owned on both sites. Bassitt makes for an interesting tournament pivot, both he and Gausman are criminally under-owned as compared to their potential, the Mets’ righty can be deployed with confidence in all formats.

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Miami Marlins

Were it not for the concerns about the weather impacting the game, Miami would potentially have been today’s main featured stack of the day. The team is facing quality young righty Josiah Gray, who has a solid 3.14 ERA and a 3.58 xFIP over his first three starts of the season. Gray has struck out an excellent 31% of opposing hitters, but he has also walked 12.1% and has an inflated 1.33 WHIP. Gray also allows a massive amount of quality contact, which is eventually going to catch up to him again. Last season, the righty yielded a 12.2% barrel rate, this year that sits at a similar 12.5% so far, but the hard-hit percentage has jumped from a good 36.2% to a very bad 50% and his average exit velocity allowed has increased from 88.3 mph to 90.9 mph. This is all in a very small sample, but it can raise concerns around a young starter who already had issues with the long ball. Gray gave up 19 home runs to 307 hitters faced last season, a 6.18% rate that is wildly unsustainable if Gray is going to succeed in the league. Home runs are fickle and can vary wildly from year to year even on similar contact metrics, but a pitcher like this remains targetable until he gets the walks and power under control. The Marlins are an interesting lineup from day to day, they are typically cheap and low-owned, and they have talented players who provide quality in DFS-relevant aspects of the game. If they manage to play this game at all, the Marlins are an under-owned opportunity for stacking. Miami’s projected lineup includes excellent infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., who will be one of the most popular Marlins at less than 7% popularity on both sites. Chisholm hit 18 home runs and stole 23 bases in just 507 plate appearances last season, he is an excellent young player who is under-owned in this spot. The infielder is followed by several power bats, including Jesus Aguilar and Jesus Sanchez, who hit second and fourth, bookending the herculean pop of Jorge Soler in the three-spot. Soler mashed 27 home runs with a .209 ISO last season, and his 48-home-run season with a .304 ISO in 2019 is not that distant a memory. That trio is followed by highly capable veteran Avisail Garcia and a list of options that gets somewhat thinner as the lineup continues. There are targetable discounts in both price and popularity among a group of players who feature multi-position eligibility on both sites at the bottom of this lineup, so they should not be entirely discarded. Garret Cooper, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings are semi-capable from day to day, while Jon Berti provides a more limited bat at the team’s lowest price. The quality comes from one through five in this lineup, if this game looks like it will play, the Marlins stack is worth rostering, they rank seventh with a 4.7% probability of being the top stack and with positive leverage on DraftKings and they look almost exactly the same on the blue site. This could be a sneaky low-cost way to unlock combinations of premium bats and pitchers that will access the top of MLB DFS tournament standings tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are ranked as by far the most likely team to be the top-performing stack on both sites. On FanDuel, their probability of success lands at a 15% mark, with every other team below 10%, they have a 16.2% chance of being the top DraftKings choice with every team again under 10% popularity. The Dodgers will also be crushingly popular, they rank as the worst leverage position on both sites, landing with a 25.8% ownership share and a -9.6 leverage score on the DraftKings slate and a 19.3% popularity projection with a -4.3 leverage score on FanDuel. The Dodgers are drawing down on righty Zach Davies who had a 17.1% strikeout rate and a 5.03 xFIP with a 1.60 WHIP while allowing a 42.8% hard-hit percentage and a 9.1% barrel rate. Los Angeles may as well be facing a flashing “hit it here” sign, this loaded offense is very likely to explode for runs tonight. The question largely comes around the affordability and popularity of the Dodgers’ projected lineup. On DraftKings, every hitter in the lineup is projected for more than 15% popularity, with many pushing into the mid-twenties and beyond. Their popularity is similar at the top of the lineup on FanDuel, but there is a small opportunity to get different at the backend of the batting order on that site. Overall, the Dodgers are a negative leverage play but one that comes with quality, the decision to undercut the field’s ownership will allow the opportunity to roster premium bats and arms in better combinations from virtually every other situation on the board. A full Dodgers stack will largely preclude the possibility of using a high-end second stack or two top-notch pitchers, which could hamper the MLB DFS point-scoring of a lineup despite the presence of five excellent bats. Those deciding to deploy the Dodgers tonight can do so from one through nine in the batting order, there are literally no soft spots in this lineup.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves are at home to face Marcus Stroman, who is not the most targetable pitcher on this slate. Stroman is more talented for real-life baseball than MLB DFS scoring, but he is able to limit some of the best offenses in baseball when he is going right, which is the situation in which he will find himself this evening. The righty has struggled with misfortune out of the gate with his new team, he has an 8.78 ERA but a 3.29 xFIP and a 4.36 xERA. Stroman has yielded three home runs for a 4.83 rate in the far too early sample. That would represent a dramatic uptick from last year’s 2.32% rate and his career 2.25% rate, but the 54.8% hard-hit percentage and 93.1 mph average exit velocity that Stroman has allowed in his 13.1 innings this year are not encouraging early marks for a starter who allowed a 41.8% hard-hit rate in a good season last year. Stroman has the Braves pushed down to the ninth-ranked stack on DraftKings and the eighth spot on FanDuel, but they have major appeal in going positively leveraged across the industry. Atlanta’s loaded lineup can typically be utilized against most pitchers, they are power-packed and had a .205 ISO with a 4.35% home run rate against righties last season, the second-best and top marks, respectively. Atlanta is under-owned on this slate, despite facing a relatively good pitcher, they should be weaponized in tournament play on both sites.

Second baseman Ozzie Albies costs $5,200 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel and he will be owned in the single digits on both sites. Albies hit 30 home runs and stole 20 bases in his 686 plate appearances last year while slashing .259/.310/.488 and creating runs 7% above average. So far this year, the star infielder has hit six home runs in just 77 plate appearances, he is off to a .242/.325/.576 start with a .333 ISO and a 153 WRC+. Albies can be deployed in any configuration of this Braves stack.

Slugger Matt Olson comes in sporting a fantastic .355/.461/.581 triple-slash over his first 76 plate appearances in 2022. The first baseman has hit just two home runs so far for his new team, ringing up a .226 ISO, but he has been fantastic in creating runs 98% better than average by WRC+. Olson is one of the league’s premier power bats, but he also has a strong hit tool and a very good eye at the plate, he is not a three-true-outcomes hitter by any means. At just $4,500 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, Olson is an easy click at the top of Braves stacks on this slate.

Austin Riley had a breakout season last year, slashing .303/.367/.531 with a .227 ISO and a run creation mark 35% above average. Riley had a 13.3% barrel rate that was second highest on this powerful team, he outpaced the 12.7% rate set by Olson last season, though he fell short of the star’s 48.4% hard-hit percentage, landing instead at a still-good 45.6%. Riley struck out at a 25.4% clip last season, both of the previous hitters were below a 20% rate, but he more than makes up for it in the quality of his contact. Riley will be a popular bat in this lineup, but that is a relative term when his 8.9% mark is the highest on the team on DraftKings where he amazingly comes at a $3,800 price. For $3,700 on FanDuel, Riley is projected for less than 2% ownership. The prices and lack of popularity might lead one to leap to the conclusion that Riley has not had a good start to his season, but he is slashing .295/.394/.590 with a .295 ISO, four home runs in 71 plate appearances and a 183 WRC+, he has been fantastic in the early part of this season. Riley’s DraftKings price is broken, he should be more popular on that site and on FanDuel where they at least put a reasonable sticker on the excellent player.

Outfielder Marcell Ozuna may not be a good person, but he is usually a good bat when he is in the lineup. Ozuna was limited to just 208 plate appearances after his despicable domestic violence suspension last season, and he was not good in those opportunities, slashing just .213/.288/.356 with a .144 ISO. In his return to the team this year, Ozuna is off to a scorching start, he has four home runs in 71 plate appearances, with a .258 ISO and he has created runs 39% better than average so far. The outfielder is slashing .273/.310/.530, a return toward his career averages of .273/.333/.462, he costs just $3,500 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel but is not drawing more than 5% popularity on either site.

Catcher Travis d’Arnaud has a good enough bat that he can be used in limited shares even where the position is not required. On DraftKings, he is always a quality catcher option, and he will be the second-most popular Braves bat at 8.8% ownership. d’Arnaud was limited to just 229 plate appearances last year, hitting seven home runs with a .167 ISO. Over his first 46 plate appearances this season, the talented backstop has a .178 ISO and is slashing .311/.326/.489 while creating runs 35% better than average. d’Arnaud has found the barrel 11.1% of the time this season, but he has just a 30.6% hard-hit percentage, he could potentially be doing more considering his 40.1% career hard-hit mark. If he is in the middle of this lineup, the catcher can be used anywhere in any format.

Outfielder Adam Duvall has long been one of the better power bats in the sport. Duvall hit 38 home runs with a .263 ISO last season, creating runs 3% better than average on the whole. He had a 16.1% barrel rate and a 43.9% hard-hit percentage last season, though he did strike out in 31.4% of his plate appearances while walking just 6.3% of the time. Duvall slashed .228/.281/.491, he is a home run or nothing option most of the time, but he can deliver that upside with more frequency than most players in the league. At just $2,800 on FanDuel for 0.5% popularity and $2,500 with a 5% ownership share on DraftKings, Duvall is worth roster spots in an array of Braves stacks.

Left-handed Alex Dickerson hit 13 home runs in just 312 plate appearances last year. He has just 28 opportunities so far this season and is off to an anemic .080/.179/.200 start with a run creation mark 86% below average. That is a wildly unfair sample to point to for a career .255/.325/.462 hitter who has been 10% better than average creating runs since 2015. Dickerson is cheap and unpopular and can be utilized with caution.

Anyone who has read this space regularly over the past few seasons knows what we think of shortstop Dansby Swanson and his underappreciated quality. Swanson costs just $2,500 on DraftKings and he is at the same price on FanDuel, making him a strong contender for late lineup wraparound plays at a premium position. Swanson hit 27 home runs and had a .201 ISO last year, making hard contact 42.4% of the time with an 11.4% barrel rate. This year, the former first overall pick is slashing just .172/.250/.276 with a .103 ISO and no home runs while creating runs 46% worse than average, which is precisely why he is virtually unowned for such a low price. Bet on a return to last year’s numbers in the long term, the 28-year-old shortstop is just hitting his stride in the league. For tonight, he is a potentially sneaky tournament winner.

Finally, Orlando Arcia occupies the nine spot in the batting order. Arcia hit 15 home runs and stole 14 bases over 548 plate appearances for the Brewers as a 22-year-old in 2017 and he hit 15 home runs with eight steals in 546 plate appearances in 2019, but he has been below 400 opportunities in every other year of his still-young career. Arcia was a well-regarded prospect on his way up, he simply has not completely clicked, but with 32 plate appearances under his belt for his new team, Arcia is slashing .269/.375/.346 while creating runs 13% ahead of the curve. He is a low-priority option from the bottom of the lineup but he can be utilized as a wraparound back to the top.

Home Run Prediction Today: Jorge Soler — Miami Marlins

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Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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