MLB DFS Tournament Picks & Home Runs 5/17/22

The MLB DFS main slates take up very different shapes from site to site on Tuesday. After last week’s fiasco with ownership being revealed early due to an afternoon game in a double-header scoring into the main slate, FanDuel has rightfully thrown up their hands and admitted they have no idea how to manage something that has been a baseball tradition for more than 120 years. The main slate on the blue site will therefore leave out the two evening games that make up the second halves of double-headers, opting instead for an eight-game slate. DraftKings includes all 10 evening games in their slate, with no concerns over scoring. The removal of those two games plucks two premium offenses in good situations from the board, both the White Sox and Dodgers are primed for big games, pending the confirmation of their game two lineups. The pitching situations in those games are primarily value-based, with the White Sox opting for a bullpen game instead of starting ace Lucas Giolito, there are potential DraftKings SP2 options in those games, but the important site-to-site differences are more about the available bats than they are about the pitchers. With a board that includes a ludicrously popular Coors Field game, a very small list of quality pitchers, and a number of positively leveraged premium spots for offense, this should be a fun slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions

Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte — 6.05

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. — 8.17

Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 7.97

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 10.00

Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 11.19

Chicago White Sox: Gavin Sheets — 5.96

Colorado Rockies: Randal Grichuk — 4.64

Houston Astros: Alex Bregman — 6.40

Kansas City Royals: M.J. Melendez — 7.90

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout — 12.08

Los Angeles Dodgers: Freddie Freeman — 7.70

Milwaukee Brewers: Hunter Renfroe — 10.69

Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton — 12.60

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 18.19

Oakland Athletics: Sheldon Neuse — 5.16

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 5.52

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford — 5.79

Seattle Mariners: Mike Ford — 6.71

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 10.40

Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 9.04

Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment

The weather forecast for Tuesday’s main slate looks non-threatening after a wet Monday. Hitting conditions remain positive in a number of parks as temperatures continue to rise around the country, watch for the status of the roof in domed stadiums with hot conditions when evaluating hitting.

MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The 10-game DraftKings pitching slate includes three playable starters who will not be available on the blue site. The Diamondbacks will have Merrill Kelly on the mound to face Tyler Anderson, and the Royals will be starting young Brady Singer against the White Sox, who will be running a bullpen game started by minor leaguer Davis Martin. The salaries for Kelly and Anderson are arguably too high, Kelly is a $9,400 option in a very difficult spot against the Dodgers, while Anderson costs a more affordable $8,700 but does not seem all that likely to pay off even that salary. Singer, meanwhile, sneaks onto the DraftKings board at only $4,800, albeit at nearly 20% popularity and in a terrible spot against the talented White Sox. Singer made three relief appearances in April, pitching a total of 5.2 innings and never throwing more than the 60 pitches he threw in his first outing. The righty is a well-regarded prospect who has talent and reasonably good stuff, as well as some experience at the Major League level, but he had just a 20.8% strikeout rate over three starts in triple-A since the end of April and was at 22.4% over 128.1 innings in the Show last season. Singer pitched to an effective 4.11 xFIP in that sample, but he walked 9% of opposing hitters and had an inflated 1.55 WHIP. The righty has reportedly been working on his developing changeup in the minor leagues, which would give him a far more dynamic arsenal if he is able to unleash it at this level. Singer has a 51.2% groundball rate over 198.1 Major League innings, and a 61.1% rate in the small sample from earlier this year, he could be an interesting play to suppress offense, at his cheap DraftKings price he will not need to rack up many strikeouts or pitch very deep into the game to provide a slate-relevant score.

The options among pitchers who appear on both sites on tonight’s slate are somewhat lackluster. By pricing, and possibly talent as well, the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert is a leading contender for the top pitcher on the slate when ignoring the matchups, but Gilbert is facing a very tough Blue Jays team, while Dylan Bundy has a much softer landing against the lousy Athletics lineup for a lower price, despite obvious warts on the play when it comes to quality and popularity. Jose Berrios will be dueling with Gilbert on the other side of the Mariners vs Blue Jays game, Berrios leads the slate by his projected success rate, but he is also the night’s most negatively leveraged option. Jameson Taillon will be taking the ball for the Yankees and he has a strong opportunity to post the night’s best pitching score in a matchup against the Orioles, but he also comes at negative leverage on the slate, with almost every other option on the slate landing at positive leverage. Gilbert stands as one of the top leverage plays, but he is not alone; Adrian Houser will be starting for the Brewers against an excellent Braves lineup, and Nathan Eovaldi is facing the elite Astros, the field is leaving both pitchers very much on the table on both sites. Both James Kaprielian and JT Brubaker are playable at negative leverage, with Brubaker in a better matchup, but neither is an ideal decision on a slate where there are positively leveraged selections who are as good or better. Reid Detmers will be facing the Rangers coming off of his shocking no-hit performance in his last start, he is barely owned and positively leveraged, which is also true of Alex Cobb, who will be pitching in Coors Field, and Jose Urquidy who is facing the Red Sox. Not one of these options is spectacular tonight, on a slate where everything looks relatively the same, it makes sense to spread out to the positively leveraged options instead of overloading on one or two individuals.

The starter with both a modicum of talent and the best matchup of the day is clearly Minnesota’s Dylan Bundy. The righty is facing the Athletics in Oakland’s pitcher-friendly stadium, and he is arguably under-owned at just 18% popularity from site to site. Bundy costs just $7,000 on the FanDuel slate and $8,500, and he is facing an Athletics active roster that has a 29th-ranked .103 ISO and a 30th-ranked 1.63% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season. Oakland has struck out at a 23% rate, the 19th-ranked team in the league, and they are next-to-last in run creation in the split, with a collective WRC+ that sits 26% below league average. This is a fantastic matchup for any pitcher, we will be chasing starters against the Athletics and Pirates all season. Bundy has had a roller-coaster career, he is sitting at a 20.6% strikeout rate and a 3.52 xFIP over 25 innings this season, and he was at a 21.2% strikeout rate over 90.2 innings last year. In the shortened 2020 season, Bundy posted what may stand as his best season, he had a 27% strikeout rate and a 3.29 ERA with a 3.75 xFIP over 65.2 innings that year, but it is looking more like an outlier than a step forward at this point. The righty has yielded a bit of premium contact this season as well, he has a 37.5% hard-hit rate but a 13.8% barrel rate that is cause for concern even against a bad lineup. Still, there is clear upside in the matchup and Bundy is not popular to the point of being unplayable, he ranks third on the probability board on both sites, with efficient ownership on DraftKings and playable negative leverage with 18.4% raw ownership on FanDuel.

Mariners righty Logan Gilbert costs more than $10,000 on both sites in a matchup against the loaded Blue Jays. The second-year starter has a solid 27.5% strikeout rate with a 10% swinging-strike rate but just a 23.9% CSW% and a 9.2% walk rate this season, while pitching to a 3.33 xFIP over 38 innings in seven starts. Gilbert is a young pitcher long on talent, he had a 25.4% strikeout rate and just a 5.6% walk percentage over 24 starts and 119.1 innings last season, so it is reasonable to expect that he will harness his control once again and return to form in the free pass department. Gilbert has yielded a 46.9% hard-hit percentage but just a 5.2% barrel rate to opposing hitters this season, landing at an average launch angle of 11.3 degrees. Last year he gave up a 44.6% hard-hit with an 8.8% barrel rate at a 19.2-degree average launch angle, so the contact profile can be considered to have improved despite the additional percentage points of hard-hit balls. Gilbert is one of the best leverage plays on the board, he is projected for low single-digits ownership at his price in a matchup against a Blue Jays active roster that has been surprisingly average against righties this season. Toronto has a 13th-ranked .157 ISO and they have created runs exactly at league average in the split this season. Their 3.47% home run rate does rank seventh in baseball, but they have also struck out at a 23.1% clip that falls to 20th against righties. Gilbert could quietly be in a spot for success that is better than advertised, he is certainly worthy of more shares than what the field is allocating for him on this low-end pitching slate.

On the other side of the same game, Jose Berrios is the top-ranked starter on Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool when sorting by the probability that he will be a top-two option on DraftKings or the top overall starter on the single-pitcher blue site. On that FanDuel slate, Berrios costs just $7,200 and he is projected for a whopping 26.1% popularity against a good Mariners team. Berrios is the most negatively leveraged pitcher on the FanDuel slate by a wide margin, he is also the most negatively leveraged DraftKings pitcher, but it is a closer race on that site. Despite his ranking, there has to be concern about the Blue Jays righty who has scuffled through the start of this season. Berrios has just a 15.3% strikeout rate with an 8.5% swinging-strike rate over his first 34 innings. pitching to a 4.80 xFIP with a 1.56 WHIP; his 5.82 ERA and 7.37 xERA are even uglier. The righty has not made noticeable changes to his pitch mix or quality, he is simply getting hit and failing to miss bats. Last season, Berrios had a 26.1% strikeout rate with a 9.9% swinging-strike rate, while pitching to a 3.59 xFIP and a 1.06 WHIP, but that pitcher is nowhere to be found this year. The premium contact numbers are up across the board as well, last year Berrios yielded a 38.3% hard-hit percentage and a 9.1% barrel rate, this year he is at a 49.2% hard-hit percentage and a 13.3% barrel rate, with hitters increasing their average launch angle from 12.4 degrees to 16 degrees. With a 30% popularity projection on DraftKings and a quarter of the field utilizing him on FanDuel, the struggling Berrios could be in line to swing the entire slate with his start tonight in a matchup against a Mariners team that has created runs 15% better than average against right-handed pitching this season. Seattle’s active roster has lacked power in the split, they rank 24th with a 2.08% home run rate and 27th with a .120 ISO, but the run creation mark ranks eighth best in baseball and their 19.7% strikeout rate in the split is the league’s fourth best. Berrios will be challenged in this spot. If he is as negatively leveraged as he currently stands, he should be targeted for an undercut to the public exposure in favor of a broader spread of options. Berrios is not a standout ace, nor is this a high-quality matchup, there is no reason to over-extend for this starter, even if he is the most likely of a list of bad options.

Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi is facing an Astros active roster that is one of baseball’s best against both hands. On this side of splits, Houston has created runs 25% better than average with a fourth-ranked 3.74% home run rate and a .185 ISO that sits third. The team also doesn’t help pitchers out in the split like other power-hitting clubs might, their 19.8% strikeout rate against righties ranks sixth in the split. With all of that in mind, Eovaldi is not someone the public is rushing to include in lineups, he is the top-ranked option that also has positive leverage on the DraftKings slate, where he sits third by his probability of being a top two starter. Eovaldi ranks second with an 8.7% chance of being the top FanDuel starter, and he is positively leveraged at low single-digit ownership on the blue site as well. Over 40 innings in seven starts, Eovaldi has posted a sterling 3.03 xFIP and a 3.15 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP, while striking out 25.8% of opposing hitters and walking just 4.3%. The strikeout and walk rates are almost identical to what the pitcher put up in 182.1 innings over 32 starts last season, and his xFIP and WHIP are both improved. Eovaldi is inducing the same swinging-strike rate as last year but his CSW% has dropped from 29.9% to 27.4% to little impact. He has yielded more premium contact this season, spiking from a 36.2% hard-hit percentage and a 6.3% barrel rate to a 43.4% hard-hit with a 12.4% barrel rate. With all of the pitcher’s other marks perfectly aligned to last season, much of the contact can likely be attributed to the small sample. Eovaldi will be hard-pressed to find strikeouts and it is a challenging situation for him to chase the win and quality start bonus, but he is more capable than the public is currently giving him credit for, he is a strong leverage play on this slate.

A few starters benefit from strong matchups on this slate while landing at a variety of quality points, depending on what one is seeking. The top-ranked starter against a bad lineup is New York’s Jameson Taillon, who will be facing an Orioles lineup that has a 22.9% strikeout rate and a 95 WRC+ against righties with no real power displayed in their 1.83% home run rate and .128 ISO in the split. Taillon has struck out 19.4% of opposing hitters with a 2.3% walk rate this season, limiting premium contact to 35.4% with a 7.1% barrel rate. The righty is projected for just 9% ownership on FanDuel, where his technically negative leverage is easy to play. On DraftKings, Taillon costs $9,300 and he is drawing a 26.8% popularity share that has him negatively leveraged as the second-most popular pitcher on the slate. Pirates righty J.T. Brubaker, meanwhile, checks in at negative leverage but a slightly lower raw ownership total in a start against the mediocre Cubs. Chicago’s active roster has a league-worst 26.4% strikeout rate against righties with just a 1.90% home run rate, but they have created runs 2% better than average in the split. Brubaker has maintained a roughly 24% strikeout rate over the last two seasons, he stands a chance to post a strong start against this lineup at efficient ownership and fair-to-cheap pricing, but he is neither sneaky nor fully reliable. In addition to his 24.3% strikeout rate, Brubaker also has an 11.8% walk percentage and a 4.36 xFIP while allowing a 40.7% hard-hit rate this season. On the other side of that game, Cubs quad-A righty Keegan Thompson will be taking on a Pirates team that has managed just one hit over their previous two games, including a matchup against lowly Wade Miley who dominated them for a huge value performance for MLB DFS gamers last night. Thompson is no Wade Miley. The righty pitched primarily out of the bullpen last season, his first in the Majors at age 26, and he posted a 3.38 ERA but a 4.72 xFIP and a 5.33 xERA. Thompson struck out 22.6% for the season while walking 12.8% over his 53.1 innings, but he struck out a mere 17.1% in his six starts. Thompson walked 13.4% in those outings while pitching to a 5.51 ERA and a 5.60 xFIP. This season, Thompson has functioned as a multi-inning reliever, until his most recent outing, a four-inning 61 pitch start against the Padres. Thompson yielded a home run and two earned runs with just one strikeout and a pair of walks in that outing, but the Padres are not the Pirates. This is an ugly situation on both sides, but there is a world in which Thompson picks up a handful of strikeouts while pitching cleanly for five or even six innings in this spot. He is an extremely unlikely and unnecessary FanDuel play, the notion of him reaching the quality start is a major longshot, but for $6,800 and just 2% popularity, it may be worth a few additional shares on the DraftKings slate as a sneaky SP2 who offsets an additional $1,000 in salary from the most popular value plays on the board while pitching against the worst lineup in baseball. This is a play that must be made with the understanding that it is very unlikely to work out, and that it requires hitting the correct bat(s) with the additional $1,000 afforded to the rest of the lineup. In the event that more expensive value pitchers fail and Thompson posts even a modestly good start, there is value to be had. Of course, the extreme contrarian end of the board is targeting Alex Cobb in a start at Coors Field, which less than 1% of the public is projected to do this evening. Cobb has a 31.5% strikeout rate over his first 20.1 innings this season, pitching to a 2.27 xFIP with a 14% swinging-strike rate. He walks too many but has given up almost no premium contact this year. Over his first five starts, Cobb has yielded just a 28.3% hard-hit percentage with 85.5 mph of exit velocity on average. The formerly targetable righty has a perfect 0.0% barrel rate and opposing hitters are averaging a negative-2.7-degree average launch angle against him this season. With no one projected to roster him, Cobb is loosely in play at $8,100 on DraftKings and $7,100 on FanDuel on a day where much of the pitching looks the same.


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Coors Field

On the opposite end of the Cobb value equation, the Rockies lineup will be facing him at Coors Field and is not drawing enough popularity, making this a firm “both sides” situation for anyone typically inclined to target Coors Field games. All of Colorado’s bats are projected for single-digit ownership in this contest, with the top three projected hitters all at salaries above $5,000 on DraftKings. On the FanDuel slate, slugger C.J. Cron costs $4,000 as the most expensive hitter on the team, and he is carrying a 17.8% ownership share as its most popular bat as well. Every other hitter costs $3,700 or less, and only Ryan McMahon joins Cron in double-digit popularity. Targetable bats on both sites include the pair of power hitters as well as Connor Joe, Randal Grichuk, Charlie Blackmon, and Brendan Rodgers. Lefty power hitter Samuel Hilliard is likely to hit late in the lineup, he has two home runs and a .154 ISO over his first 78 plate appearances this season, but his contact profile looks terrific at 50% hard hits with a 12.5% barrel rate. Hilliard is an excellent option at a low price and no popularity in MLB DFS’ highest-scoring ballpark.

On the other side, the visiting Giants are spectacularly popular once again. Make no mistake, San Francisco is easily the team that is most likely to score the most runs tonight, but with 25 to 30% of the field on every single hitter in the projected lineup, the only play for MLB DFS lineup construction is to bypass them, if not in full then with a dramatic undercut to the field’s projected ownership. There is simply no advantage in rostering hitters who are that popular, the hope in bypassing the excellent opportunity for bats like LaMonte Wade Jr., Joc Pederson, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, Evan Longoria, and Brandon Crawford is that those excellent options will only combine for six or seven runs without standout individual scoring, while under-owned stacks hit the jackpot. Differentiating from the field in those situations pays gigantic rewards, whereas simply being right about which team will score the most does not.

New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox

Both of yesterday’s featured teams are near the peak of the Top Stacks Tool on both sites once again today. The White Sox are facing Brady Singer in a game that is only on the DraftKings slate, while the Yankees will be available on both sites in a targetable spot against flailing righty Spenser Watkins. Chicago’s bats are pulling in a fair amount of popularity and Singer is not a bad pitcher, but the overwhelming talent in Chicago’s lineup is appealing and their popularity is a third of what the Giants are pulling in atop the board. Pending the confirmation of the lineup for the second game of a double-header, Chicago bats that should be featured in stacks include Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, and Yasmani Grandal, while Gavin Sheets can be targeted as a price and popularity offset with other mix-and-match options from the bottom of the batting order.

New York has been featured in this space several times already this season, despite making the author seem like he simply favors home cooking. The truth of the matter is that the Yankees lineup has been one of the best in baseball and features an overloaded stack of power hitters on any given slate from multiple angles into the batting order. There is premium chalk available at the top of the lineup with D.J. LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton that anyone can spot, but the quality runs one from top to bottom. Josh Donaldson is too cheap for his talent, but he is drawing popularity, while Joey Gallo is even less expensive but equally rostered. The low-owned low-cost option hiding at the bottom of the batting order is Aaron Hicks. The switch-hitter has an odd-duck triple-slash at .212/.358/.259 triple-slash .047 ISO while still creating runs 3% below average this season. The on-base skills are what saved Hicks’ run creation stat so far, he is walking at an 18.7% rate while striking out 20.6% of the time. The outfielder has failed to make much premium contact this season, but he wraps around beautifully to the top of the lineup as an on-base speed and correlation play. Hicks is not without individual upside as well, he hit 27 home runs in 2018, the lone season on his resume in which he receive more than 500 plate appearances in an injury-marred career. At very low popularity, Hicks should be targeted for additional shares in conjunction with his more popular teammates.

Houston Astros

The Astros are facing a quality opponent with Nathan Eovaldi on the hill, but they are one of baseball’s best lineups against both hands, as mentioned in the breakdown of the Red Sox pitcher. Houston is projected for positive leverage and a mid-range probability of being the top stack on the DraftKings slate, and they come in as both more probable and more positively leveraged on the blue site. The Astros star-laden lineup is carrying single-digit ownership marks from top to bottom, including for spectacular hitters like Jose Altuve, who sits at .259/.348/.531 with a .272 ISO and seven home runs while creating runs 63% better than average. Altuve is followed by lefty Michael Brantley, a hit-tool and on-base specialist who is always too cheap, third baseman Alex Bregman who has scuffled for power but still has created runs 38% better than average over his 145 plate appearances this year, and Yordan Alvarez, who is simply one of the best sluggers in baseball. Alvarez has 11 home runs and a .321 ISO while creating runs 72% better than average this season, he will be owned by less than 5% of the field tonight. Kyle Tucker had almost as good a year as Alvarez last year but has not gotten out of the gate quite as strong in 2021, he is a terrific option at low ownership and a cheap price. Yuli Gurriel, Jeremy Pena, and Chas McCormick would be a good top-three for a lot of teams in baseball, they can all be included in Astros stacks with enthusiasm.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves are the featured stack of the day because they are another supremely talented team that lands at positive leverage, and because no one wanted even more details about the Yankees today. Atlanta is taking on righty Adrian Houser, who has an 18.7% strikeout rate with an 11.2% walk rate and a 1.42 WHIP this season. Houser has not been good and the Braves are excellent, but everyone not named Acuna is projected for low single-digits ownership. The slate is leaving the Braves on the table in a very good spot, take advantage where possible.

Ronald Acuna Jr. is being managed carefully in his return from an extended injury absence. He was not in last night’s lineup, but he should be back at it in the leadoff spot again tonight. Over his first 46 plate appearances, Acuna has slashed .282/.391/.487 with two home runs and a .205 ISO while creating runs 50% better than average. Most encouragingly, given the nature of his injury, the superstar outfielder already has five stolen bases in his young campaign. This is a player who was slashing .283/.394/.596 with 24 home runs and a .313 ISO in just 360 plate appearances before he was felled last season. Acuna is the most popular Braves bat at 10.8% on FanDuel and 6.5% on DraftKings, but he warrants more popularity.

Matt Olson has hit just four home runs but he is still creating runs 30% better than average in the two-hole for the Braves. The first baseman is under-owned for his talent at 2% on DraftKings and 5.1% on FanDuel. Olson has a 48.5% hard-hit rate with a 10.9% barrel rate this season. The home runs are coming, and he is a spectacular option in the heart of this lineup.

Third baseman Austin Riley is one of the best options at the hot corner. He is lashing .244/.333/.467 with seven home runs and a .222 ISO and he costs just $3,400 on FanDuel at nearly no ownership. The righty masher has a 51.6% hard-hit percentage and a 15.8% barrel rate this season, though he strikes out at an aggressive 26.1% rate. Riley should be included in lineups; he creates runs 27% better than average and very few MLB DFS gamers are playing him in a great matchup.

With a .210/.260/.355 triple-slash, it is coming on time for Marcell Ozuna to put up numbers or take a seat. The outfielder has a quality 11.8% barrel rate and a 46.4% hard-hit, but he has created runs 27% worse than average over 150 plate appearances, dragging down the middle of the Braves lineup. Ozuna is cheap and underutilized, he can be included in Braves stacks based on previous quality and strong leverage.

Catcher Travis d’Arnaud is a quality option at his position on the DraftKings slate, he is somewhat playable as a differentiation piece on FanDuel, where quality catchers tend to go under-used. d’Arnaud has hit three home runs with a .156 ISO this season, but he strikes out at a 26% rate, which is something to consider when choosing value and popularity picks from an already low-owned stack.

Ozzie Albies offers far more capable MLB DFS scoring potential, the second baseman hit 30 home runs and stole 20 bases last season, but he is off to a slow start in 2022. Albies is slashing .227/.287/.397 with six home runs and three steals over his first 157 plate appearances. His run creation has dipped from 7% above average to 8% below, but he is a safe bet for the long-term turnaround and for the short-term performance upside.

Outfielder Adam Duvall has just two home runs this year, but he hit 38 last season and is a long-established power bat who is priced down dramatically. Duvall warrants attention at just $2,300 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, with less than 1% of the field rostering him on either site. He is another aggressive free swinger, but that price and lack of popularity is not justified by a lousy short-term run of performance.

A former first-round pick, Travis Demeritte has grabbed a job with this team in the absence of Eddie Rosario, he offers second base eligibility on FanDuel for $2,800 and no popularity and he is a $2,500 outfielder on DraftKings. Demeritte has hit in the leadoff spot when Acuna sits, but he should be in the late part of the lineup today. He is slashing .281/.338/.453 with three home runs while creating runs 22% better than average, don’t miss him when stacking multiple Braves lineups.

Dansby Swanson has a 42.5% hard-hit rate and a 15.1% barrel rate this season, which he has translated into four home runs and a .223/.296/.397 triple-slash while creating runs 4% below average. Swanson is a cheap unpopular shortstop who is better than those numbers on any given night, given his contact profile. He is a fine addition to any Braves stack.

Home Run Prediction Today: Patrick Wisdom — Chicago Cubs

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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