Wednesday brings some midweek madness to MLB DFS, with another slate that splits differently between DraftKings and FanDuel. The blue site gets going early with a 6:40 ET start that will catch both the Nationals vs Marlins and the Padres vs Phillies games before the DraftKings slate catches up with the 7:05 ET start for the remaining six games of the evening. The slate will be something of a fun sprint with no West Coast games, the final game of the night is between the White Sox and Royals in Kansas City with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 ET, The board is loaded with premium pitching and run totals are all between seven and eight, despite some resurgent power and better hitting conditions around the league. Targeting some of the high-end bats on the Top Stacks Tool will be the goal once again but some of the pricing set makes it difficult to get to the very best bats and arms in tandem, putting some of the value pitchers in play as well. On what has all the makings of a very fun night of MLB DFS, spreading out to a wide range of likely outcomes is the more appropriate approach than zeroing in on just one or two teams for lineup construction on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 8.71
Chicago Cubs: Frank Schwindel — 5.53
Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson — 6.89
Kansas City Royals: MJ Melendez — 8.04
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 7.70
Miami Marlins: Jorge Soler — 14.87
New York Mets: Eduardo Escobar — 8.49
New York Yankees: Josh Donaldson — 12.87
Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Schwarber — 10.60
Pittsburgh Pirates: Dan Vogelbach — 10.26
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 4.60
Seattle Mariners: Mike Ford — 5.87
St. Louis Cardinals: Juan Yepez — 7.64
Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 4.61
Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette — 10.26
Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 5.46
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
All eight games across the two main slates appear to be safe from inclement weather, there should be no risk of delays or postponement.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The eight-game FanDuel slate features a pair of interesting arms that are not available on the main slate, with Pablo Lopez taking on the Nationals and Zack Wheeler, who is facing the Padres. San Diego will counter Wheeler with the excellent Blake Snell, but the lefty will be limited to around 70 pitches in his season debut and he is mispriced for that pitch count. Lopez and Wheeler are both strong starters who should be considered on the FanDuel slate. Wheeler has a diminished 23.9% strikeout rate over his first 31.2 innings, but he is pitching to a 3.60 xFIP with a 1.26 WHIP and he has been good with a 3.4% barrel rate and 36% hard-hit. The righty is facing a Padres lineup that has a .121 ISO and has created runs eight percent worse than average with just a 1.60% home run rate against right-handed pitching. Wheeler seems like a safe landing spot for a high number of shares on the blue site, he is a strong pivot from more popular ace-caliber starters who are available on both slates. Lopez comes in at even less ownership than Wheeler on the blue site, despite a 28.4% strikeout rate and a 0.81 WHIP this season. The Marlins’ underrated righty has made seven starts, he is pitching to a 2.63 xFIP and he has induced a 14% swinging-strike rate while compiling a 33% CSW%. Lopez has limited premium contact to 32.4% hard-hit and a 5.6% barrel rate, his numbers rival some of baseball’s best early in the season and he is a proven commodity over time. The Nationals’ active roster has a .124 ISO and a 2.34% home run rate against righties so far this season, they have created runs one percent behind the league average in the split and they strike out at a ninth-ranked 20.8% rate. Lopez is talented enough to find additional strikeouts even against the stingy team, and there is not a major threat of power or run creation in the Washington numbers to this point in the season, the pitcher should be owned at more than a two percent rate.
There are excellent options among the starters available on both sites as well, the list is overflowing with premium arms from the top of rotations. The Yankees will have Gerrit Cole on the mound against the lowly Orioles, and Shohei Ohtani is taking the ball for the Angels in Texas to face an underperforming Rangers team. The pair of aces would typically top off any slate, but this list of pitchers stays on the upper crust with Lucas Giolito facing the Royals, Max Scherzer taking on the Cardinals, who have struggled for quality against right-handed pitching through much of the last two seasons, and Kevin Gausman in a matchup against a slumping Seattle lineup. A five ace day has pitching prices inflated across the industry, all of those options outside of Gausman are priced over $10,000 on FanDuel and most are priced up on DraftKings as well. Giolito is oddly listed for only $8,300 on the DraftKings slate, putting him $1,000 lower than most of the other top-end options. The top option from the value tier is likely Dane Dunning, even in a tough start against the Angels. Dunning has been solid through the early part of the season despite facing some of the best teams in baseball. He was dinged late in his last start after another strong performance through most of the game, which will probably keep some of the public away from the quality young starter, Dunning is one of the most positively leveraged selections on both sites. Other options at that tier are the less appealing Marco Gonzales, Jordan Lyles, or Drew Smyly who will be facing the Pirates, who yielded yet another excellent fantasy score to a low-end starter last night.
Among the five aces, it is Kevin Gausman who lands atop Awesemo’s probability board on the Top Pitchers Tool for DraftKings, but the gap between his 37.4% probability of landing as a top-two starter and the other four excellent options is relatively thin from the top to the bottom. The top three starters on the board are within six percentage points of one another by probability, but Gausman is the only option in the top five who also comes at positive leverage. On FanDuel, the Blue Jays starter ranks second by probability, he is 0.6 percentage points behind the slate leader on a razor-thin board that has seven starters between 7.3% and 11.8% likely to be the best option. Gausman comes at efficient ownership on the FanDuel slate, while the top option on the board and the third-ranked starter are both at negative leverage. The Blue Jays’ righty has struck out 30.9% of opposing hitters so far this season while walking just 1.1% with a 2.11 xFIP and a 0.98 WHIP. Gausman has induced a massive 18.3% swinging-strike rate and he has a 33.2% CSW% over 45 innings in seven starts, he is a strong bet for both strikeout upside and leverage, as well as a win and a quality start bonus in a matchup against a Mariners team that has been up and down to start the season. Seattle’s active roster has a .116 ISO and a 2.0% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season, but they have created runs 12% better than average and they strike out just 19.5% of the time in the split. At his ownership marks and leverage, taking bets on Gausman overcoming those positive qualities while suppressing the Mariners’ offensive upside is the right play for MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Cardinals are elite against lefties, but they have scuffled for power against right-handed pitching so far this season. St. Louis has a .135 ISo that ranks 13th and a 2.10% home run rate that sits 24th in the split so far this year, but they have still managed to create runs seven percent better than average by collective WRC+. The team is excellent at limiting strikeouts against both hands, they rank third against righties with an 18.6% strikeout rate so far this year, but they will be facing Mets ace Max Scherzer, one of baseball’s very best. Scherzer has a 32.5% strikeout rate and a 2.98 xFIP with a 0.91 WHIP over his first 44 innings in 2022. The excellent righty has limited hard hits to just 28% although that comes with a 10% barrel rate so far. Scherzer has induced a 14.1% swinging-strike rate so far this year, he should be able to find a few bonus whiffs even against this Cardinals team. The primary issue with Scherzer is his leverage, the elite option is extremely popular on the DraftKings slate, where he is pushing 50% ownership and a slate-worst leverage score. On the bigger FanDuel board, Scherzer is the top-ranked probability option, but he will be included in 32% of lineups at a -21 leverage score, while all of the other options are at similar prices and probabilities, with less popularity. Scherzer is an apex pitcher, but it makes sense to undercut his popularity on a slate loaded with excellence on the mound.
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole lands differently from site to site. On DraftKings, Cole is projected for 45% popularity and the second-worst leverage score on the board, while he is a more favorable play but still negatively leveraged at around 22% ownership on FanDuel. Cole has an excellent chance of posting the night’s highest score, he has a 30.3% strikeout rate over 36.2 innings with a 2.81 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP while inducing a 15.4% swinging-strike rate. The righty yields premium contact from time to time, his occasional mistakes have resulted in a 41.9% hard-hit rate with a 7.9% barrel rate this year, but Cole remains elite for MLB DFS scoring. The upside is increased by a matchup against an Orioles active roster that has a 22.8% strikeout rate that ranks 19th in the split, their best attribute against righties. Cole will be facing a team that has a .131 ISO and a 1.90% home run rate that sit 22nd and 26th against righties, and they have created runs six percent worse than average in the split. Cole is worth the weight of popularity, he is an excellent pitcher in a great spot, but he should be a part of a blended set of entries. Ultimately, undercutting the field or rostering Cole in line with the public would not be a mistake with many similar starters at positive leverage.
Shohei Ohtani lands at positive leverage and a low overall ownership total in the single-digits on the FanDuel slate, and he is an efficiently owned option at 30% popularity on DraftKings. Ohtani has a dominant 35.4% strikeout rate and a 5.4% walk rate so far this season. The superstar two-way player has induced a 16.7% swinging-strike rate and compiled a 36.2% CSW% while yielding just a 31.2% hard-hit percentage. Ohtani is matched up against a Rangers squad that has a 25th-ranked .120 ISO and a 22.1% strikeout rate that sits 15th in the split, which is the same level at which their 2.71% home run rate lands. The Rangers’ active roster has created runs 13% worse than average so far this season, third from the bottom of the league against righties. This is an excellent spot for Ohtani, even on the overloaded slate, it is surprising that he is not more popular in this spot, particularly on FanDuel, where pushing additional shares into the pot seems like a strong move. Ohtani is as good an SP1 as any starter on the DraftKings slate, and he comes at lower ownership.
In the final game of the night, Lucas Giolito is on the mound to take on the Royals, a team that has a WRC+ one spot above the Rangers against righties. The Royals active roster has created runs 12% worse than average with a .110 ISO and baseball’s worst home run rate in the split, a totally powerless 1.51% mark that seems likely to drop in the absence of elite catcher Sal Perez. Giolito will need to work for strikeouts in this matchup however, the Royals have a 20% strikeout rate that ranks seventh in the split, but the pitcher has more than enough upside and he is under-owned in MLB DFS contests. At just $8,300 on DraftKings, it is surprising that Giolito is not more popular than his projected 27% ownership, he is an excellent upside and leverage target on FanDuel for $10,300 and low single-digit popularity. The electric Chicago righty has a 35.2% strikeout rate this season. He has induced a 15.7% swinging-strike rate and a 35.3% CSW% so far this season while pitching to a 2.67 xFIP. Giolito has yielded some premium contact at a 40.7% hard-hit rate and an 11.9% barrel rate, but that seems unlikely to threaten him against this lineup. Giolito is a targetable starter on both sites tonight.
Rangers starter Dane Dunning will be very challenged by an elite Angels lineup, it is important to remember that Ohtani will be hitting against the pitcher, even if he is not available as an MLB DFS bat. Still, Dunning has upside at his price and lack of popularity, he is the most appealing of the low-end value options on this slate. The righty has pitched to a quality 3.26 xFIP, box score watchers may only see the bumpy last outing and a 4.06 ERA when evaluating the pitcher, but Dunning is a well-regarded young starter with upside, even against this lineup. The righty has a 23.1% strikeout rate with a 39.4% hard-hit percentage and a 7.3% barrel rate, but he has limited hitters to just a 4.3-degree average launch angle and allowed just a 1.87% home run rate with a 50.9% ground ball rate so far this season. Dunning cruised through five clean innings with six strikeouts against the Red Sox before running into a wall of earned runs, but outside of that blip, he has been stellar so far this season. The young starter has posted his quality numbers against baseball’s best, his list of opponents in reverse order features the Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, Astros, Mariners, Angels, and Blue Jays. Dunning struck out seven Angels hitters in just 3.2 innings in his first matchup of the season against this lineup, but that version of this lineup pales by comparison to what they have achieved over the season’s first month and a half. Los Angeles has a .199 ISO and a 4.16% home run rate that both rank second against righties, and they have created runs 34% better than average, the league’s best WRC+ in the split, but they strike out at a 23.8% clip, the 24th-ranked team on the board. Dunning is capable and potentially sneaky on a slate loaded with aces. His lower salary helps by a bat that cannot be reached when rostering aces on FanDuel, and he is a viable SP2 option at a very low price on DraftKings.
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New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox
Tonight’s main slate does not feature Coors Field on either site, but the frequently covered Yankees and White Sox are the top two stacks on the board on both sites. While we will not dive into full coverage, both teams are worth mentioning, the Yankees lead the power index above as well as the stacks tool in a matchup against Jordan Lyles, who has an 18.5% strikeout rate and a 39.5% hard-hit percentage with an 8.1% barrel rate on a 13-degree average launch angle, there should be some fireworks in Baltimore but the Yankees are pricey, popular, and negatively leveraged. The White Sox are facing the drone that was left behind several years ago when the real Zack Greinke was abducted by aliens. This version of the righty has an 8.9% strikeout rate and a six percent swinging-strike rate while yielding a 42.4% hard-hit percentage. Grienke is a target for White Sox bats, but they will also be extremely popular. Both teams can be played, but it is important to focus on rostering them in tandem with lower-owned options from the mound or in secondary stacks.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are facing limited lefty Marco Gonzales who has a 15% strikeout rate and a 4.82 xFIP so far this season while inducing just a 6.5% swinging-strike rate. Gonzales is as targetable as Greinke, but the Blue Jays will come for slightly less ownership than the White Sox, at more affordable pricing. The loaded Blue Jays feature George Springer atop the lineup for around 15% popularity on both sites. Springer is slashing .268/.329/.504 with a .236 ISO and seven home runs to start the season, he is a worthy start to Toronto stacks. Elite first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a different play from site to site, he is drawing more than 20% ownership for just $3,600 on FanDuel, where he should never be priced below $4,000. On DraftKings, Guerrero is at an appropriate $5,900 price and drawing single-digit ownership, he is a spectacular play where he can be afforded. Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette, and Santiago Espinal are playable bats through the middle of the Toronto lineup, and Matt Chapman adds underappreciated thunder from the right side of the plate, despite his ongoing struggles with his triple-slash. Chapman has hit six home runs with a .183 ISO so far, but he is slashing just .183/.273/.365 while creating runs 14% worse than average. Lourdes Gurriel, Alejandro Kirk, and Ramiel Tapia can be deployed as needed from the bottom of the batting order. Of the late lineup players, Gurriel is the best option, despite just a .231/.277/.338 with two home runs and two stolen bases.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins land in the middle of the board on the FanDuel slate and they do not exist on DraftKings. The team is matched up against Nationals righty Josiah Gray who has walked 11.5% of opposing hitters while yielding a 43.9% hard-hit percentage and a 15.3% barrel rate over 37.1 innings this year. Gray has yielded a 5.1% home run rate so far this season, following up an even uglier 6.2% last season. The Marlins are drawing some popularity, the stack is technically at negative leverage, but they rate extremely well for power and potential run creation upside, and most of the public ownership is concentrated on the best player in the lineup, Jazz Chisholm Jr. The infielder has been elite this season, slashing .292/.328/.566 with a .274 ISO and six home runs and six stolen bases while creating runs 52% better than average, which is why he will be owned by nearly 20% of the field. The rest of the lineup peaks at the 14% popularity of Jesus Aguilar and finds Garrett Cooper and Jesus Sanchez in the 13% range. Offsets to the popularity exist in the form of cleanup hitter Jorge Soler, who is projected for just 4.4% popularity. The slugger has hit seven home runs and has a .195 ISO, but he is slashing just .195/.287/.391 over his first 151 plate appearances. Later lineup bats including 5.6% popular Avisail Garcia, Brian Anderson, and Jacob Stallings can provide a bit of sneaky power upside, and even Miguel Rojas can surprise from time to time as a low-owned addition to stacks.
New York Mets
The Mets rank well in the power index in their matchup against Jordan Hicks, who allows too many opportunities with his 13.5% walk rate and has struck out hitters at just a 23.6% clip over his first five starts this season. Hicks has yielded an 11.3% barrel rate but it has come on just a 1.3-degree average launch angle with a 58.5% ground ball rate. If the Mets hitters can elevate the ball and take advantage of the barrel rate allowed, they stand to post a strong score at fairly low ownership and positive leverage on both sites. The team ranks in the middle of the Top Stacks board when sorting by probability, they are a clear target on this slate.
The Mets have one of baseball’s best leadoff hitters in outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who is getting on base at a .397 clip over his first 143 plate appearances this season, almost exactly at his .394 career average. Nimmo is slashing .292/.397/.458 with a .167 ISO while creating runs 53% better than average, he has hit three home runs and he makes for a terrific individual or correlation play from the top of the lineup at single-digit ownership across the industry.
While he scuffles to just a .228/.315/.393 triple slash, Francisco Lindor has seen his price dip to just $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel. The Mets have not gotten their money’s worth from the former star so far, he has hit six home runs and stolen four bases this year after a disappointing first season in Queens, but he is creating runs just nine percent better than league average, a very good mark but less than what the team expects from one of baseball’s formerly elite bats. Lindor has plenty to offer on any given MLB DFS slate, he is owned in the six to seven percent range and warrants additional shares in Mets stacks.
Jeff McNeil has been well covered in this space, as long as his seeing-eye hits are finding their way through the infield or dropping in, he will look strong in the stat lines. McNeil is slashing .312/.370/.424 but he has just a .112 ISO and one home run, he is somewhat miscast if he hits third, but he has appeared in a number of places in this batting order so far this season. McNeil is creating runs 34% better than average between the hit tool and on-base skills, he can be included in Mets stacks as their most popular DraftKings bat with multi-position eligibility for just $3,700. On FanDuel, McNiel is less popular for $2,900 while maintaining his eligibility between second base and the outfield.
First baseman Peter Alonso is projected for less than two percent popularity on both sites, he is dramatically under-owned on this slate as one of the leading home run candidates in a target stack, this is a bat to pay up for, not one to avoid when stacking this team. Alonso has hit eight home runs and he has a .208 ISO while creating runs 30% better than average over his 163 plate appearances. The slugger is slashing .257/.331/.465 and he has a 45.4% hard-hit percentage with a 13% barrel rate. Alonso is a fine choice for power on any given slate, he is among the top few choices in the home run model tonight and he makes a spectacular one-off at microscopic popularity.
Lefty Dominic Smith is in the projected lineup against a righty. The first baseman has made 75 plate appearances and he is slashing just .197/.280/.258 with no home runs and a .061 ISO. Smith has created runs 33% worse than average so far this season, he has not proven himself worthy of the spot in the lineup and the team may move on sooner than later. Still, if he is hitting fifth or sixth for this team, there is minor value in including him in stacks. Smith does have a 47.9% hard-hit rate this season, but he has barreled just 2.1% of those batted balls, the contact profile needs to improve in a hurry for the home runs to emerge.
Mark Canha may find his way into the lineup if the Mets do not go with lefty Travis Jankowski in a platoon-focused decision. Canha is the better player, Jankowski is slashing .243/.333/.243 while creating runs 18% worse than average. Canha has made 107 plate appearances and he is slashing .287/.364/.394, Canha is a target if he is in the lineup, and Jankowski is a bolt-on mix-and-match option.
Switch-hitting Eduardo Escobar has hit just two home runs in 149 plate appearances this season, but he had 28 in 599 opportunities last year. Escobar is slashing .217/.322/.354 but he has still created runs seven percent ahead of the league average. Escobar has a low-end contact profile so far this season, he has just a 30.1% hard-hit percentage and a 4.3% hard-hit rate that need improvement.
The back end of the lineup seems likely to include catcher Tomas Nido, who is a low-end bat that is not overly relevant for MLB DFS but can be included where the position is needed. Luis Guillorme is another lefty bat who may work his way in against a mediocre righty, Guillorme has a WRC+ 30% above average over his 60 plate appearances, with one home run but just a .118 ISO, he is a minor mix-and-match target.
Home Run Prediction Today: Peter Alonso — New York Mets
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