Wednesday brings a split slate, with a four-game early set that has been covered elsewhere on the site. This space will focus exclusively on the main slate today, giving seven games from which to make MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. The slate is a bit rougher than previous days with third and fourth options in team rotations taking the mound, though there is just one concerning weather spot — Baltimore — on the board. With run totals up a bit from yesterday, expect some fireworks, although with some of the outbursts on what Vegas thought would be a calm day yesterday, it’s always good to remember the extreme variance in the sport.
The main slate kicks off at 7:05 p.m. ET on both sites. The Awesemo team will be here for all of it, providing updates to tools and data throughout, including the Strategy Show, which you can find on YouTube, and Live Before Lock at 3:55pm ET. Speaking of tools, if you aren’t visiting the Top Stacks Tool regularly, you’re just making your MLB DFS picks incorrectly. The Top Starters Tool is every bit as important in deciding who takes the hill for your daily fantasy baseball lineup.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home Run Ratings
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Ozzie Albies — 6.00
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 12.84
Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal — 7.37
Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 7.68
Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon — 8.50
Detroit Tigers: Wilson Ramos — 3.57
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 20.18
Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager — 9.99
Miami Marlins: Starling Marte — 4.03
New York Mets: Francisco Lindor — 2.88
Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 6.08
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 21.72
Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 10.86
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 13.11
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MLB DFS Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
(Quick note: if it says 1-5, it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5. Otherwise, I will specify spots)
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Today’s MLB DFS slate is dramatically different when it comes to players on the bump for their teams. The board yesterday was littered with ace-caliber options, while today looks far more pedestrian by comparison. The Top Pitchers Tool is a great way to parse through the available pitchers to find the day’s standout plays, ranking them by how likely they are to be the top pitcher on FanDuel or in the top two on DraftKings. Pairing that with the projected ownership is the best way to get a feel for where to get exposure in relation to the field on each pitcher.
Atlanta’s Charlie Morton is at a major discount on the DraftKings slate and is coming up as both the top ranked pitcher and by far the highest owned. Morton put up a good season last year, but the sample is microscopic at just 38 innings in nine starts. He struck out 24.7% of hitters and posted a 4.02 xFIP, though he had a bumpy 1.39 WHIP. The year before, Morton was a standout, putting up a 30.4% strikeout rate and a 2.81 xFIP with a 1.08 WHIP in 194 innings across 33 starts for the Astros. Going from that team to the Rays to the Braves keeps Morton among organizations with similar fundamental pitching philosophies, but it remains to be seen if he can perfectly recapture the form he flashed in the heavily spin-rate focused Houston organization. Still, at these prices and in a matchup against the (improved) Marlins lineup, Morton seems like good chalk on the DraftKings slate and a quality option on FanDuel.
Speaking of Astros pitching, Lance McCullers Jr. will be making his third start of the year. McCullers has gone five innings in each of his first two starts of the season as he slowly ramps up his work, yielding just one run in each game — one on a home run. He has struck out 13 of the 41 hitters he has faced so far, a 31.7% strikeout rate in the tiny sample, inducing a 10.9% swinging strike rate along the way. Sustaining that strikeout rate would be a strong increase from the 24.7% mark McCullers reached in 2020 in his return to action after missing the 2019 season. McCullers has an excellent arsenal of pitches and appears to be in solid form. He is pricey but ranks well in his probability of success when compared to his peers, though he will be highly owned across both FanDuel and DraftKings, particularly considering the matchup against the weak Tigers lineup. Over the past two seasons, the active roster for the Tigers has ranked 29th in the league with a .150 ISO, 27th with a 24.9% strikeout rate, 28th creating runs 14% worse than average and 21st with 170 home runs against right-handed pitching. This is a good pitcher in an excellent spot.
Mets starter David Peterson is in an interesting spot on the rankings board on both sites. At a fair mid-range price on DraftKings and a downright discount on FanDuel, Peterson ranks at the top of the second-tier starters available on this slate. After the obvious names, he stands out for providing both salary relief and leverage, as the public appears to be shying away from a somewhat unknown commodity in a relatively tough matchup against the division rival Phillies. Peterson is a soft-tossing, crafty lefty with some ability. He posted a 24.5% strikeout rate in AA ball in 2019 but just a 19.5% mark in the Show last season, albeit in a 49 inning sample. Peterson struck out five hitters in four innings in his first start of the season, showing that he could have some limited room for upside as a low-cost leverage play for GPPs. The Phillies active roster has demonstrable aptitude in the split, but over the past two seasons they rank fourth in baseball with a .218 ISO and 15th with a 22.3% team strikeout rate against southpaws.
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HOU — 1-7 Dealer’s Choice
The Astros project to be one of the best spots for offense on Awesemo’s Top Stacks Tool today. The team is in a great spot backing up McCullers against the Tigers and their right-hander Michael Fulmer. In a few short seasons, Fulmer has gone from a well-regarded prospect to an utter disaster on the mound. In his first full action in 2016,he put up a solid 159 inning season, going 11-7 with a 3.95 xFIP and a 20.4% strikeout rate that gave the Tigers the idea they had something on which to build. The foundation has been in question ever since, with Fulmer unable to complete full seasons and posting bumpy numbers along the way. In 2018 he pitched 132.1 innings, putting up an OK 4.29 xFIP, but allowed a targetable 19 home runs, for a 1.29 HR/9 mark. Fulmer missed all of 2019 and when he returned in 2020 he yielded eight home runs in just 27.2 innings, losing about 4 mph off his fastball. He showed some regained velocity in three appearances this season, pitching 7.0 innings and striking out 10 hitters, though he has allowed two home runs already.
The Astros loaded lineup should have an opportunity to feast, they are excellent at limiting strikeouts and they should give Fulmer fits with their ability to get on base and drive in runs. Starting off the projected lineup with Jose Altuve is always a good-looking spot. He is off to a good start this spring, going .318/.380/.455 over his first 50 plate appearances, with one home run but just a .136 ISO and a .342 BABIP that shows some luck. Altuve is more affordable on FanDuel at $3,900 than on the DraftKings slate, where he costs a whopping $5,800, far more than any teammate.
Outfielder Michael Brantley is often overlooked in all situations, in a lefty-lefty matchup this could be the case again tonight. Brantley has held a respectable line against same-handed pitching through his career, though he is markedly better on the other side of splits. His strikeout rate jumps from 9.2% to 14.3%, while his ISO drops from .164 to .103 and he creates runs 4% below average rather than 27% above. Still, if he is hitting second in this lineup for a somewhat discounted price and low ownership, it makes plenty of sense to work in a fair share of Brantley in Astros stacks.
Alex Bregman is a star third baseman with a mighty bat. In his 180 plate appearances in 2020 he hit just six home runs, putting up a disappointing .242/.350/.451 slash with a .209 ISO, but the year before he was at a stellar .296/.423/.592 with a .296 ISO and 41 home runs. Getting that production for a discounted $3,800 on FanDuel and $5,100 on DraftKings is well worth the effort.
Lefty outfielder Yordan Alvarez has gigantic power and is highly rated in my home run model today despite the same-handed matchup. Alvarez has faced lefties for 162 plate appearances in his short career, hitting 11 home runs. He has a ridiculous .324 ISO in the split, trailing his .329 mark against right-handed pitching only slightly. Alvarez strikes out less against same-handed pitching, with a 22.8% mark compared to a 26.4% against righties. There is every reason to get to him in this spot, he has an excellent chance of putting up a big number and bending the slate to his will.
Shortstop Carlos Correa costs just $3,300 on the FanDuel slate, but comes in at $5,000 on DraftKings. Still just 26, Correa is off to a good start in his career reclamation year, putting up a .295/.354/.568 slash with three home runs in his 48 plate appearances so far. In 221 opportunities last season, Correa hit just five home runs, so the early fireworks are nice to see from a player who has been at an All-Star level in the past.
Yuli Gurriel should not be left out of Astros stacks. He still has substantial power, though he had a down year at the plate in 2020. In 2019, Gurriel put up 31 home runs in his 612 plate appearances, and he has an excellent .410/.521/.564 slash over his first 48 plate appearances this year. The sites have not caught up to Gurriel’s current year production in the short sample, he remains underpriced.
Kyle Tucker is a talented hitter to get as late as seventh in the lineup. He is a very high-end prospect who has both power and speed. Tucker flashed both in his 228 plate appearances last season, hitting nine home runs and swiping eight bases. He has significant upside on most slates and could go under-owned by the field in a same-handed matchup.
Myles Straw can be rostered in spots as a wraparound option for his speed and ability to get on base, but he is not the strongest of options from the bottom of the lineup. Catcher Martin Maldonado should be reserved for lineup differentiation purposes.
HR Call: Yordan Alvarez — Houston Astros
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