MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks

What a day of MLB DFS on Opening Day. From home runs that weren’t, to huge home run blasts and unexpected crooked numbers from bad teams, to reminders why the runner on second base to start extra innings rule is so terrible; the day had a bit of everything. Friday’s slate is a tame-by-comparison six-game affair, with the Orioles and Red Sox making up their game in the afternoon and disconnected from the main slates on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The six games to work with include the Dodgers at Coors Field once again in something of an obvious smash spot given the matchup. There are several other interesting stacking opportunities and some clunky pitching going today, so there should be a lot to work with in building high-quality lineups that have a chance at being the optimal constructions for the night.

The split-slate kicks off at 7 p.m. ET on both sites, the Awesemo team will be here for all of it, providing updates to tools and data throughout, and we have Live Before Lock from 5pm to 6pm ET. Speaking of tools, if you aren’t visiting the Top Stacks Tool on a regular basis, you’re just making your MLB DFS picks incorrectly. The Top Starters Tool is every bit as important in deciding who takes the hill for your daily fantasy baseball lineup.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I am going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte – 9.03

Atlanta Braves: n/a

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: n/a

Chicago Cubs: n/a

Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert – 8.26

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: n/a

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story – 9.50

Detroit Tigers: n/a

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker – 8.91

Kansas City Royals: n/a

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout – 4.63

Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager – 9.55

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar – 5.01

Milwaukee Brewers: n/a

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: n/a

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 16.30

Philadelphia Phillies: n/a

Pittsburgh Pirates: n/a

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 12.15

San Francisco Giants: Wilmer Flores – 3.13

Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger – 7.91

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Yoshi Tsutsugo – 4.36

Texas Rangers: n/a

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: n/a

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MLB DFS Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays | DraftKings & FanDuel

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I will specify spots)

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

LAD at COL — LAD – Pick ‘Em

There isn’t much call to spend a lot of time on this one. The only debate is whether to be above or below the field on the best lineup in baseball going up against a bad pitcher in Coors Field. This is a no-brainer of a spot for the Dodgers terrific lineup, and the entire lineup is playable. The team as loaded as they are expensive and popular. It is difficult to differentiate roster construction within the Dodgers lineup, so focus on pairing the team stack with more offbeat second stacks or pitcher selections. The Dodgers will receive massive ownership shares on both sites, so be sure to refer to the Top Stacks Tool for the latest leverage updates as lock approaches later today.

To add some context to the matchup with Antonio Senzatela, the starter threw 73 innings last season, putting up just a 13.5% strikeout rate, which was up from his 13.1% rate in 124 innings the year before. Senzatela managed to cut his walk rate nearly in half to 5.9% but still ended the year with a 4.82 xFIP and a 1.21 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Dodgers active roster is first in baseball with a .233 team ISO against right-handed pitching dating back to the start of the 2019 season. They have hit 230 home runs in the split (fifth as a team), their 126 team WRC+ ranks first, and their team 19.8% strikeout rate in the split ranks second in the sample. This is an excellent lineup in a fantastic spot, though everyone in the DFS industry will be on them in varying degrees.

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SFG at SEA – SFG

The last game of the night has the potential for some fireworks from the value end of the player pool. The matchup between the Giants hitters and the Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi will be an interesting study in what, if anything, can be gleaned from last year’s small sample experiment of a season. For Kikuchi’s part, he made massive strides last year, adding a cutter to his repertoire and throwing it 40% of the time, which completely changed the way his pitch mix functioned. Kikuchi improved from a disastrous 5.71 xFIP in 161 innings in 2019 to a 3.78 mark across his 47-inning sample last season. He bumped his strikeout rate by an even more impressive margin, leaping from 16.1% to a robust 24.2%, though he did walk more hitters in the exchange. Overall, Kikuchi was a different pitcher; he allowed just three home runs in his 47 innings while inducing 52.0% ground balls. His ability to continue the performance will be the major question mark coming into this season. He can suppress power and generate strikeouts, but Kikuchi will have to continually prove it.

The Giants active roster is a tale of two seasons against left-handed pitching. Over the full sample dating back to the start of the 2019 season, they rank 26th with a .166 team ISO in the split, a number that leaps to .223, second best in baseball, if considering only the small 2020 sample. Similarly, their team WRC+ jumps from a 20th-ranked 100 to a second-ranked 127 against lefties. They also hit a league-best 33 home runs in the split last season but rank 18th across two years with just 68. The team does not strike out much in the split regardless of the season, coming in third in the extended sample with a 20.7% strikeout rate (fourth in 2020 at 20.4%). Ultimately the Giants bats seem like the choice if viewing this as an either-or question for one lineup. The upside of the bats simply outweighs what Kikuchi can provide in a less-likely strikeout spot.

Austin Slater was a popular selection going into last night’s game, and he will be in a significant number of public lineups on the FanDuel slate once again tonight at just $2,500. His popularity drops on DraftKings, however, where he is priced up to $3,500. Slater hit five home runs and stole eight bases in his 104 plate appearances last season while posting a solid .282/.408/.506 slash. He stands out as a strong leadoff man for Giants stacks given the propensity for getting on base and the speed.

Likely the Giants’ best hitter at this point, Mike Yastrzemski came through with a .297/.400/.568 slash, leading the team throughout the odd season last year. Yastrzemski hit 10 home runs and stole two bases while posting a monster .271 ISO and creating runs 60% better than league average over the course of the season. For his career, Yastrzemski has handled same-handed pitching to the tune of a .270 ISO and a .303/.376/.572 slash while creating runs 50% better than average. There is no reason to shy away from platoon splits here — let others make that mistake.

Second baseman Donovan Solano hits third for this team and slots in at a discount on both site, making him an integral part of early lineup stacks. Solano is more of a hit tool specialist; he posted a solid .326/.365/.463 slash last season but just a .137 ISO and three home runs in 203 plate appearances.

Following him in the lineup are four familiar veteran bats with some reliable history despite advancing ages. Evan Longoria and Buster Posey had flashbacks to nearly a decade ago in yesterday’s opener, and both players could be primed to perform again tonight.

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Longoria made 209 plate appearances in 2020, hitting .254/.297/.425 in a down year. He managed to hit seven home runs but posted a disappointing .171 ISO and created runs at a pace 5% below league average. He will look to bounce back this year. Protecting Longoria in the lineup is Wilmer Flores, who has a robust history as a platoon specialist and did well in a full season of 213 plate appearances last year. Flores hit 12 home runs in the sample while putting up a strong .247 ISO and 121 WRC+.

First baseman Brandon Belt had a strong year at the dish in the short season, going .309/.425/.591 in his 179 plate appearances a year after posting a .234/.339/.403 mark in 616 opportunities. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle, but Belt has reliable pop from the left side of the dish and put up a .282 ISO and nine home runs in last year’s return to form.

Posey announced his presence with authority to those who stayed up to watch the late game. Posey’s return to action after opting out of last year’s COVID-related fiasco of a season could not have gone better, and it is just good to have Posey back on the field. Posey put up a .257/.320/.368 mark in 445 plate appearances in 2019, hitting just seven home runs in a down season, so hopefully the year off did him well and he can parlay a quick start into a strong season. For tonight’s purposes, Posey is affordable at $3,300 where catchers are necessary and in the mix as a $2,500 piece of a stack on FanDuel.

Brandon Crawford and Mauricio Dubon round out the Giants likely lineup, with the former running a decent track record in same handed matchups earlier in his career but trailing off in recent seasons. Crawford made 193 plate appearances last year, putting up a .256/.326/.465 slash and slugging eight home runs. His .209 ISO was solid for an afterthought of a DFS middle infield option, making him a somewhat sneaky weapon to deploy in the right spots. Diving to the bottom of the lineup sacrifices a plate appearance, but there are worse hitters in those spots than Crawford. Dubon is not a great option, but his pricing will help round off a desperate lineup build.

HR Call: Matt Olson – Athletics

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.