MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, HRs & Optimal Picks

MLB DFS Tuesday brings a loaded slate that is split in different ways across the two major sites. DraftKings is taking the full 13-game main slate, starting with the four 6:40 games, and FanDuel sticking with the eight game slate that begins at 7:05. As such, there are different shapes and combinations available for lineup constructions across the industry. The home run picks below will include the full 13-game slate, while the stack analysis focuses on an under-owned option from among the eight games that are on the main slate for both sites. There is an interesting pitching selection in the main slate and a Coors Field game to contend with, not to mention a significant amount of weather, so there is a lot of ground to cover.

The Awesemo team will be here for all of it, including on the Strategy Show, which you can find on YouTube, and Live Before Lock this afternoon at 4:30. We will be constantly updating all the tools and content. Speaking of tools, if you aren’t visiting the Top Stacks Tool regularly, you’re just making your MLB DFS picks incorrectly. The Top Starters Tool is every bit as important in deciding who takes the hill for your daily fantasy baseball lineup.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Asdrubal Cabrera — 3.09

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 12.95

Baltimore Orioles: Maikel Franco – 7.93

Boston Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe — 11.83

Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 9.37

Cincinnati Reds: Jesse Winker — 7.61

Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 6.22

Detroit Tigers: Renato Nunez — 4.46

Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 8.58

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 5.29

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh – 12.65

Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 24.77

Milwaukee Brewers: Travis Shaw — 14.16

New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 11.42

New York Yankees: D.J. LeMahieu — 4.20 (Judge/Stanton both 8.0+)

Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 5.00

Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran — 11.42

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 2.42

San Francisco Giants: Evan Longoria — 2.29

St. Louis Cardinals: Tommy Edman — 4.90

Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 2.41

Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 10.78

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 12.15

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 11.97

Power Index (Main Slate)

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

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MLB DFS Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

For those playing the early afternoon MLB DFS slate, Luis Castillo stands out as the prime option among a weak group of pitchers. The Reds ace is only rivaled by Zac Gallen, who unfortunately is taking the mound on the other side of the same game. There is also weather to contend with in that contest, making the foundation somewhat shaky for both starters. Charlie Morton could mix into things as well given his matchup with the struggling, strikeout-heavy Yankees. Matt Harvey and Michael Fulmer are both targetable with bats, though Fulmer is pitching in a game with a significant chance of at least a rain delay and in 35-degree conditions, which could certainly deflate the upside in Pittsburgh’s bats.

Among pitchers available in the eight games on the main slate for both sites, Padres starter Chris Paddack looks like a bargain at just $6,900 on FanDuel, while he costs $10,000 on the DraftKings slate, an absurd imbalance. Paddack projects as the top starter overall in my personal model and ranks second on the Top Pitchers tool by probability of being the best option. Paddack has struggled early in the season, putting up just a 16.9% strikeout rate and a 10.2% walk rate with a 4.45 xFIP and a 1.46 WHIP in his 13 innings over three starts. Still, there is premium talent in his right arm, and he is in an excellent strikeout matchup with the Brewers in town. Last season, Paddack struck out 23.7% of hitters he faced in his 59 innings, that mark stood at 26.9% in 2019 over a 140-inning sample. Paddack’s main minor league experience was at a level too low to truly be relevant, but he consistently struck out more than 40% of hitters in A and high-A before his rapid acceleration to the majors. Since the start of the 2019 season, this year included, the Brewers active roster is fifth-worst in baseball with a team strikeout rate of 24.9% against right-handed pitching. They rank 20th out of 30 teams with a .173 ISO in the split and create runs two percent worse than the average as a team. This is a good spot for Paddack and the FanDuel price is absurd.

Angels starter Shohei Ohtani stands as a potentially underappreciated option on the board tonight, with public ownership trailing his probability of being a top starter by a significant margin. The right-hander is fully healthy, though the concern is the management of his fragile makeup. Ohtani has made just one start, pitching 4.2 innings and striking out seven, but walking five while giving up one earned run on two hits. Ohtani has elite stuff and is in an excellent strikeout matchup, the Rangers active roster has been the worst in baseball dating to the start of the 2019 season, with a 26.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and they create runs 16% worse than the league average in the split. The length would be the only concern with Ohtani, who is at an excellent price on DraftKings and a fair one on FanDuel.

Latest MLB DFS Content

(Quick note: if it says 1-5, it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5. Otherwise, I will specify spots)

BOS – 9-2-3-4-6 – Dalbec – Verdugo – Martinez – Bogaerts – Renfroe

Skipping the Coors Field game and looking for a little leverage on the field leads us to the Boston Red Sox, who are getting decent power indicators in my home run model, despite the matchup against a quality starter in Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Toronto lefty has a 26.0% strikeout rate and just a 2.7% walk rate so far this season, putting up a 2.59 xFIP over his first 19 innings. In another small sample last year, Ryu had a 26.2% strikeout rate and a 6.2% walk rate over 67 innings. Prior to those two short-sample results, Ryu had a 22.5% strikeout rate over a more robust and representative 2019 season. The Red Sox big bats primarily hit from the right side of the plate or handle lefty pitching quite well, so there is plenty of upside for the team in this spot while they will be lower-owned for the matchup at Fenway Park.

Leadoff man Enrique Hernandez has a .269/.306/.463 slash with three home runs in his 72 plate appearances early in the season, more than delivering on expectations so far in his first year in Boston. Hernandez has made a career feasting on left-handed pitching. He has a .211 ISO and just an 18.1% strikeout rate while creating runs 19% better than average in the split over the full career. Against righties he comes in with just a .165 ISO and a 22.9% strikeout rate with an 84 WRC+.

Alex Verdugo has been excellent since coming to Boston as one of the primary pieces in the Mookie Betts trade. Verdugo put up a .308/.367/.478 slash with six home runs and four stolen bases in his 221 plate appearances last season. The lefty is off to a .295/.357/.525 start to the season, hitting three home runs and putting up a .230 ISO in his 70 plate appearances. If that trend continues, we are witnessing the first steps of a major power outburst from the outfielder. Verdugo has been excellent with the stick against same-handed pitching so far in his career, posting a .303/.339/.436 slash, though his power dips to from a .191 ISO to a .133. Regardless, there is plenty of upside at low cost and low ownership here.

Slugger J.D. Martinez has most certainly seemed to have recaptured his form so far this year. Martinez has crushed everything he has seen this season, hitting a whopping six home runs in just 66 plate appearances. He has a stratospheric .417 ISO and a .383/.439/.800 slash to start the season. Martinez can be rostered with confidence as both a one-off and a part of Red Sox stacks, even in a matchup against a good pitcher.

Xander Bogaerts has been excellent at the plate for several seasons. Last year he put up a .300/.364/.502 slash with 11 home runs and a .202 ISO. The shortstop created runs 30% better than the average hitter last season, adding to his immense value in the middle of the order. Bogaerts’ hit tool and on-base skills have been hot to start the year, despite a lack of home runs he has an excellent .386/.435/.491 slash to start the season.

Third baseman Rafael Devers is a major power threat from the left side of the plate, but he has struggled more against same-handed pitching through his career so far. Devers has just a .149 career ISO against southpaws, compared to a killer .251 mark against the opposite hand. He still has a strong hit tool, putting up a .267/.318/.417 slash, but that pales in comparison to what he does against righties. Devers creates runs six percent worse than average for his career in the split. Devers should not be skipped in too many stacks, but the platoon issues give us reason to look elsewhere for some Red Sox builds. If too much of the public heads in that direction, Devers can provide sneaky under-owned value, particularly if the Red Sox can chase Ryu early.

Catcher Christian Vazquez and Hunter Renfroe should be hitting sixth and seventh, in an arguable order. Vazquez has excelled the last two seasons, giving the Red Sox surprise upside from behind the plate. He hit seven home runs in just 189 plate appearances last year, after blasting 23 in 521 chances in 2019. Renfroe came over from San Diego and has long been an excellent power bat against left-handed pitching. He has struggled to get started this season, putting up an overall slash of just .184/.233/.289 with a .105 ISO and a lone home run, but this is still a hitter with a bonkers .315 ISO for his career against lefties, creating runs 36% better than average in the same sample. Renfroe is an underrated bat who should hit higher in the Sox lineup in this spot.

Christian Arroyo does not offer significant MLB DFS upside, though he has managed a .316/.350/.474 slash to start the year. He has just a .158 ISO but has created runs 31% better than average to this point, giving him some utility from the bottom of the lineup. It is slugger Bobby Dalbec who draws the eye at the very bottom, however. Dalbec blasted eight home runs in his 92 plate appearances as a rookie last season, putting up a .338 ISO, though he is yet to connect on a long ball in 46 plate appearances this season. The slugger was a well-regarded power prospect on the way up, and nothing about that has changed. In traditional scouting he has 70-grade raw power, and he hit 26 home runs in high-A ball in 2018, with another 20 coming in just 439 plate appearances at AA in 2019.

HR Call: Adam Duvall – Miami Marlins

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.