MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks

The Monday main slate is a seven game set on both sites, with the MLB opting to schedule a handful of early evening starts in their drive to reduce viewership. The teams that are playing at a normal start time bring us an interesting set of options, with Mets starter Jacob deGrom standing alone among a group of third and fourth starters as the Mets finally open their season. With the team’s weekend set against the Nationals postponed after that team had COVID exposures, deGrom was pushed back for this start against the rival Phillies. He is a no-brainer lock-and-load play, but he is pricey. Landing on the right value stack is going to be critical.

The slate kicks off at 7:05 p.m. ET on both sites. The Awesemo team will be here for all of it, providing updates to tools and data throughout, and Live Before Lock airs from 4 to 5 p.m. ET. Speaking of tools, if you aren’t visiting the Top Stacks Tool on a regular basis, you’re just making your MLB DFS picks incorrectly. The Top Starters Tool is every bit as important in deciding who takes the hill for your daily fantasy baseball lineup.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I am going to give one of the top choices from each team, though it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: n/a

Atlanta Braves: n/a

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 15.30

Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 7.64

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 7.46

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: n/a

Colorado Rockies: n/a

Detroit Tigers: n/a

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 8.56

Kansas City Royals: n/a

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 5.98

Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager — 12.55

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: Jackie Bradley Jr. — 11.35

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 15.66

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Matt Chapman — 10.51

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 7.48

Pittsburgh Pirates: n/a

San Diego Padres: Wil Myers — 9.18

San Francisco Giants: Wilmer Flores — 8.51

Seattle Mariners: Evan White — 6.03

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 14.67

Texas Rangers: n/a

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: n/a

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MLB DFS Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I will specify spots)

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

HOU 1-2-3-4-6: Altuve — Tucker — Bregman — Alvarez — Correa

The Astros suffer somewhat from their tarnished reputations after the cheating scandals of the past few seasons. A down year across most of the lineup in the shortened 2020 season didn’t help sell the narrative that the cheating didn’t have an impact in seasons prior, and some of the team’s stars have a lot to prove in 2021. As the top-ranked team in Awesemo’s stack rankings, however, the Astros are simply not getting enough respect from the public tonight, and they should be more owned than they are.

Leadoff man Jose Altuve had an atrocious 2020, putting up a career- low triple slash of .219/.286/.344, a .125 ISO and a WRC+ 23% below average. Cheating or not, Altuve is much closer to the dynamic hitter with the career .311/.361/.458 slash. Altuve has created runs at a 25% better clip than league average across the course of his entire career; he is simply not as bad as last year.

Kyle Tucker is a name from prospect lists of years past. Finally arriving for real in 2020, Tucker had one of the few good seasons for the Astros, putting up a .268/.325/.512 slash with nine home runs in his 228 plate appearances. There is power and speed here, as evidenced by the eight stolen bases in that short season. Tucker should be hitting second behind Altuve in what could be a dynamite combo for MLB DFS all year long.

With star third baseman Alex Bregman protecting Tucker in the lineup, there is plenty of firepower to take advantage of the speed up top. Bregman had a down season in 2020 but still managed a .209 ISO and created runs 22% better than league average. If his slash marks return to the .296/.423/.592 levels from 2019 — with the 41-home-run power as well — Bregman will be in the running for the MVP discussion.

Yordan Alvarez is back in the Astros lineup after missing all but nine plate appearances last season with an injury. Alvarez exploded onto the scene in 2019, hitting 27 home runs in just 369 plate appearances as a rookie. He isn’t an all-or-nothing power bat; he put up a robust .313/.412/.655 slash in the sample, showing a great hit tool and ability to get on base. Alvarez’s .342 ISO in that 2019 sample speaks for the power available here. This is the best cleanup hitter on the board, and he is underpriced.

Another Astros regular who is supposed to be returned to good health is veteran Yuli Gurriel. He brings a ton of experience and ability to the plate, and he is at a low price, coming in at just $2,800 on the FanDuel slate. Gurriel had an off year in 2020, hitting just six home runs and putting up a weak .152 ISO and WRC+ 21% below average. The year before he was more himself, going .298/.343/.541 with a .243 ISO. Gurriel is one of the older players on the team, but he is a lineup regular and should be a very productive MLB DFS option this season, particularly when he is too cheap.

Shortstop Carlos Correa has seen his overall stock fall over the last two seasons, though at his price he is very capable of delivering significant value from the back end of an Astros stack, and at an important position. Correa has hit 26 home runs in his 542 plate appearances across the past two seasons combined, which would be a respectable year if it had come in a single season. He needs to be in the lineup to remind everyone how good he is. Still just 26, Correa has ample time to get back on track with a career that started hot when he blasted 22 home runs in 432 rookie plate appearances in 2015. He followed that with 20 in 660 opportunities the next year, but then things went downhill. Correa has not cracked 500 plate appearances since that 2016 season. He hit 24 home runs in just 481 chances in 2017, only 15 in 468 the following season before coming back with the quality combined two years. With many people believing the talent and power are gone, Correa is a sneaky piece on the board.

Myles Straw is a name to know for MLB DFS purposes as well. He is not a power bat; he was never close to even a .100 ISO across five minor league seasons. What Straw brings to the lineup is a reasonably well regarded hit tool and 70-grade speed. Across AA and AAA in 2018, Straw swiped 70 bases in his 598 plate appearances. In 2019 he added 19 in 313 plate appearances at AAA, then eight more in 128 at the major league level and six in his 86 plate appearances last year. He is an interesting mix-in as a wraparound back to the skill atop the lineup or as a potential one-off.

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OAK 1-5: Canha — Laureano — Olson — Chapman — Moreland

Both sides of this game are interesting for bats. The Dodgers are coming out of Coors field, they are expensive, and the public is tired of paying up for them, leaving the supremely talented lineup a bit under-owned on tonight’s main slate. The matchup is not the greatest with talented right-hander Frankie Montas on the hill, but there is still a lot of opportunity when this lineup is low-owned. On the other side, the Athletics are coming in about half as likely to be a top stack as their opponent, but they provide significantly more value for their pricing and will also be under-owned, making them our value stack.

The Athletics are matched up against dynamite young pitcher Dustin May, who has been a social media sensation with clips of his ridiculous two-seam fastball making the rounds. May pitched primarily out of the bullpen last season, coming into high-leverage spots and facing several hitters or throwing a couple of innings at a time. He is a starter by trade and won the fifth starter role coming out of camp with the Dodgers, but be wary of the leash on a valued young arm in this situation early in the season.

The Athletics lineup is capable against right-handed pitching despite trending somewhat righty-heavy. They lead things off with Mark Canha, a popular option for his on-base skills and mix of mid-range power and ability on the basepaths. Canha hit 26 home runs in 497 plate appearances in 2019, following that up with just five last year in 243 opportunities. The truth likely lies in the middle. Canha did manage a .387 on-base percentage a year after putting up a .396, so he is very much the discerning hitter he seems to be and is well worth a spot in Oakland stacks.

The speed and pop trend continues with Ramon Laureano, the rangy outfielder who is a low-key 20-20 threat. In 2019, Laureano had a .288/.340/.521 slash with a .233 ISO, hitting 24 home runs and stealing 13 bases. That makes for a dynamite combination for MLB DFS, particularly on a slate where he is currently projected for less than 1% ownership on both sites.

Big lefty first baseman Matt Olson is a pure slugger. Olson blasted 36 over the wall in 2019, posting a .277 ISO along the way. He hit another 14 last season, with a .229 ISO. Part of the seeming dip in power was an inability to generate many other hits, as Olson’s slash cratered to a .195/.310/.424 mark. Olson stands out as the team’s leader in my home run model today.

Matt Chapman also has a terrific mark for power in the model and was the choice for this team in the previous section. Chapman is a star caliber defender and a good hitter, he also hit 36 homers in 2019 and also had a down season in his triple-slash in 2020, though he saw just 152 plate appearances. Chapman did manage a .232/.276/.535 slash with a .303 ISO and 10 home runs, however, so the power stroke was present all year, it just did not translate to as much production, limiting him to a 116 WRC+, still well above average.

Veteran lefty thumper Mitch Moreland brings his platoon skills to Oakland this year. He is always a good option against a right-handed pitcher, and he has a solid home run mark as a first baseman on both slates. Moreland his 10 home runs in just 152 plate appearances last year, matching Chapman’s totals exactly in both categories. He surged ahead of his new teammate however, with a .265/.342/.551 slash and a WRC+ 35% above average. Moreland makes an excellent option in this stack, and he could be a sneaky one-off at extremely low ownership.

HR Call: Corey Seager — Dodgers

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.