MLB DFS: Monday, August 19th rings in a new week with a nine game “main” slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB picks, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
Trevor Bauer
What a great spot for Bauer. The Padres active roster has some struggles with righties. They have the second highest strikeout rate in the league to go with the fourth worst wRC+. Bauer’s only real struggle this year has come against lefty power. San Diego is a bit light on that sort of thing. The only real downside to Bauer is the park, but if the Reds can maintain an implied total at or below four runs, it really isn’t a worry to me. There are enough cheap-ish options that I have no problem spending all the way up on Bauer. He’s the clear top arm of the slate.
Kyle Gibson
Gibson isn’t normally the sexist DFS play, but a matchup with the White Sox makes a stud out of everyone. Today is no different. Gibson is $7400 on FD (crazy!), $10100 on DraftKings (reasonable) and $39 on Yahoo (better than reasonable). Chicago is very similar to the Padres in terms of their production versus righties, just with less power. Gibson doesn’t have the stuff like Bauer, but he gets the benefit of a better price. I’ll be using Gibson a lot on FanDuel, but he’s still a fantastic value everywhere.
Brendan McKay
Speaking of excellent strikeout matchups, we’ve got another one here. Seattle has the third highest strikeout rate against lefties. The truly surprising thing about the Mariners is their wRC+ against lefties. For a team that leans a bit heavy to the left side, Seattle has a 107 wRC+. I understand that McKay is young and unproven, but he is massively underpriced. On FanDuel, he’s equal to Gibson. I want to have 80%+ of exposure to these three guys. The fun part is he’s priced down on DraftKings, too. There is no doubt in my mind that McKay is my most exposed pitcher. He’s the best play of the day relative to salary.
