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For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. In addition to using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel MLB
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings MLB
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo MLB
[table id=1201 /]
Trevor Bauer
This should be fun. Bauer has been a rollercoaster of emotions over his past few starts. Today, he’s simply too cheap. Let’s start with the good. The Mariners active roster has the fifth highest strikeout rate in the league against righties. They’ve been below average in wRC+. The game is in Seattle which is a much better environment than Cincinnati. Now, for the scary part. Bauer has had significant struggles against lefties this year. While his strikeout rate is still above average (23.7%), he’s allowed a .199 xISO and .347 xwOBA. Couple that with a projected lineup of six lefties, and you have the recipe for a scary start. I think the juice is worth the squeeze. Bauer is my favorite starter.
Mitch Keller
This one should feel way more comfortable. On FanDuel and Yahoo, Keller is aggressively underpriced. On DraftKings, he’s priced appropriately. First and foremost, he gets the benefit of pitching in San Francisco. Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a hitter’s haven, but Oracle Park is the best park in baseball. It’s an average strikeout spot, but the Giants have an 87 wRC+ against righties. Not exactly scary. Meanwhile, Keller has been nasty in 2019. He’s striking out 26.6% of lefties and 28.7% of righties. His wOBA against is off the charts bad, but his xwOBA is ~.310. He’s been incredibly unlucky with his batted balls, which makes him way more appealing to me.
Other Pitchers
If you’re looking to save as much money as possible on an SP2, Jose Suarez and Ivan Nova are the two guys I’m paying down for. Suarez has a date with Indians, which is not a great spot. He’s been good against lefties, but has struggled mightily with righties. It’s a high risk spot, but if the ownership stays low, I think it’s worth a shot. I expect Nova to get a little love considering his price. Plus, he gets to face the Royals. That’s a much better matchup than Suarez with Cleveland. If neither guy looks good, spend a few extra bucks and grab Chase Anderson. Anderson has been absolutely dreadful against righties this year, but the Marlins are the Marlins, so you have to pay attention. They’ll have eight righties in the lineup, so Anderson will have to work from start to finish, but I can’t get away from that at $6000 on DraftKings.
