MLB DFS Preview: The Cubs Are Favorites To Rise Back To The Top Of A Mostly Improved NL Central

As part of our ongoing MLB DFS preview on Awesemo.com, we’re going division by division to tackle the key changes for each team in terms of notable additions and subtractions as well as the potential for each in the 2019 season. Follow along with us on the road to MLB Opening Day on March 28th, 2019 and check out our new MLB-focused Twitter @AwesemoMLB for more on the written and video MLB DFS content at Awesemo.com throughout the season.

Chicago Cubs (+200 to win the division, O/U 88.5 wins)

Notable Additions: Daniel Descalso (2B), Tony Barnette (RHP), Brad Bach (RHP)
Notable Subtractions: Daniel Murphy (2B)

Despite not much in the way of additions and the loss of one thought-to-be-big midseason acquisition in Daniel Murphy, Vegas expects the Cubs to be atop the NL Central after finishing second to the upstart Brewers in 2018. The Cubs were a top 10 team vs righties last season while just outside that mark vs lefties and the expected two through five of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and powerful but strikeout prone Kyle Schwarber can do some damage versus almost any opposing pitcher who gives them pitches to hit.

The starting pitching unit led by Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Cole Hamels is serviceable but not the most exciting group to roster for MLB DFS purposes while Yu Darvish could have some upside if he returns to his previous form rather than the injury prone and less effective version that Cubs fans were treated to in 2018.

Overall the Cubs feel steady but likely in need of new blood or increased health and production from their core players in order to keep up with some of the big additions in the division. However it seems like Vegas believes the Cubs will be in the hunt until the end so things could be looking up for the North side’s preferred team.

 

St Louis Cardinals (+225 to win the division, O/U 88.5 wins)

Notable Additions: Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Andrew Miller (LHP), Matt Wieters (C)

Notable Subtractions: Luke Weaver (RHP)

 

The Cardinals’ addition of Paul Goldschmidt, also the recipient of a new five-year contract, is a big one from both fantasy and real-life perspectives with Goldschmidt a true centerpiece order for the middle of the lineup. Goldschmidt isn’t a terribly huge upgrade over Jose Martinez from an offensive standpoint but the flexibility the move provides makes sense for the team with quality hitting depth a priority for many teams who consider themselves contenders. The Cardinals’ bats headlined by Matt Carpenter should be as prolific as ever while another year on the team will hopefully bode well for Marcell Ozuna’s adjustment from life as a Marlin. Much like the Cubs, the Cardinals remained consistent with a potent hitting core who should see improvement from Ozuna and younger hitters like Harrison Bader while also offering a good bit of matchup flexibility.

It’s arguable whether the pitching staff is any better with the loss of Luke Weaver in the deal for Goldschmidt, but there are some question marks outside of the steady hand of Miles Mikolas and intriguing fantasy play Jack Flaherty. Carlos Martinez is currently working through a shoulder problem which does not seem ideal to have to start the year and without him, the rotation looks much less certain. There’s some hope for Michael Wacha while Adam Wainwright’s best days are behind him and the battle for the 5th starter between John Gant and Dakota Hudson doesn’t offer a ton of upside. This is a team whose hitting success will drive them this year and the pitching could mostly stand to get out of the way.

Milwaukee Brewers (+325 to win the division, O/U 86.5 wins) 

Notable Additions: Yasmani Grandal (C), Corey Spangenberg (3B), Ben Gamel (OF), Alex Claudio (LHP)

Notable Subtractions: Keon Broxton (OF), Curtis Granderson (OF), Jonathan Schoop (2B), Erik Kratz (C), Gio Gonzalez (LHP)

While the Brewers do have a lot of turnover of some acquisitions who helped them over the hump to win the NL Central in 2018, they retained Mike Moustaskas, a clear priority among the free agent group. And more importantly, they still have reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich, quality bats like Lorenzo Cain and Travis Shaw, and power guys like Jesus Aguilar and Ryan Braun. The addition of Yasmani Grandal could be a big one after he was platooned as a Dodger but offers enough contact and power to be worth an everyday play (or at least more than Manny Piña who shared plate time with the departed Erik Kratz). The Brewers are a fun fantasy stack due to prodigious hitting capability in general — but especially at home at Miller Park — and there’s no reason to expect much of a backslide from that potential they showed last season with the core pieces returned.

The pitching rotation helmed by Jhoulys Chacin is far more of a question mark. Youngster Freddy Peralta showed strong potential last season and 24-year-old Corbin Burnes could have fantasy upside with his addition to the rotation and a solid 15.4% swinging strike rate. Without much in the way of a shutdown pitcher, it’s very plausible to see some high scoring battles emerge from the Brewers and their opponents but they do have some players in the rotation who could be popular in MLB fantasy when the matchup aligns.

Cincinnati Reds (+700 to win the division, O/U 79 wins)

Notable Additions: Yasiel Puig (OF), Matt Kemp (OF), Jose Iglesias (SS), Derek Dietrich (UTL), Tanner Roark (RHP), Alex Wood (LHP), Sonny Gray (RHP), Zach Duke (LHP)
Notable Subtractions: Billy Hamilton (OF), Matt Harvey (RHP), Homer Bailey (RHP)

The Reds lost some noteworthy prospects in the offseason to pick up the talent they did but in terms of major leaguers, they didn’t lose much in the way of talent outside of iffy speedster Billy Hamilton. The batting order should be improved by the additions of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, though Kemp may be in a platoon depending upon how the Reds approach things. Adding Puig alone to the order after Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto makes for a potent grouping of hitters and one that could offer the Reds upside if the weaker parts of the order play up to their best. A freak groin injury to Scooter Gennett — never a sentence any one wants to wish upon anyone — will sideline Gennett for the first few months of the season so the Reds will need to a lot with what they have to have any hopes of keeping afloat.

Though Matt Harvey made some strides compared to the end of his Mets stint (enough to somehow get another major league deal with the Angels), the losses of Harvey and Homer Bailey may actually make the Reds a less appealing team to target from a fantasy perspective. Luis Castillo is likely the Reds’ nominal ace while the middling and occasionally bad respectively Tanner Roark and Sonny Gray should fill roles in the rotation that might be better served with existing younger arms Anthony DeSclafani and Tyler Mahle. Alex Wood could be a sneakily huge addition with the lowest WHIP of the group outside of Castillo, though Wood is currently hurt and seems likely to be sidelined until mid-April. Addition by subtraction is in play for Cincinnati and if their younger arms improve, they could be more competitive than it seems even if they’re still unlikely to rise to the level of the Cubs, Cardinals, or even the Brewers.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+700 to win the division, O/U 77.5 wins)

Notable Additions: Melky Cabrera (OF), Lonnie Chisenhall (OF), Jung Ho Kang (3B), Erik Gonzalez (2B/SS), Francisco Liriano (LHP)

Notable Subtractions: Jordy Mercer (SS), Josh Harrison (2B), Pedro Alvarez (UTL)

Some tinkering around the edges of the Pirates’ batting order is unlikely to materially add much value to them with how Vegas currently grades the Pirates out but the team could have some interesting options. Corey Dickerson and Josh Bell are expected to hit 3rd and 4th in the order and both showed upside from a fantasy perspective for parts of last year. The addition of Jung-ho Kang after visa troubles kept him mostly out of the majors over the last few seasons could be a benefit if he returns to form in a meaningful way. His addition moves steady hitting catcher Francisco Cervelli down the lineup and might make the team slightly more compelling as a stack along with Adam Frazier and Starling Marte at the top of the order. New additions Erik Gonzalez and Lonnie Chisenhall aren’t likely to add much meaningful at the back of the order but they are in fact warm bodies available to roster.

The pitching rotation is likely more interesting with Jameson Taillon having shown sporadic glimpses of ace potential. A full season of former Rays arm Chris Archer will also give a better read on where he stands with some previous success in real life and fantasy that didn’t fully materialize in an injury shortened post-trade run. Trevor Williams is more of a “don’t get destroyed” pitcher than one of real upside but Joe Musgrove and Nick Kingham are fairly solid for back of the rotation guys for a team slated to finish last in their division. None of the Pirates pitchers are likely to blow you away but the team may be in position to dig out from their Vegas projected win total after barely finishing above .500 last year.

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and keep your eyes peeled for a lot more from me and our bang-up MLB DFS team here at Awesemo.com this season.

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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