Welcome to Roses of the Day!
My name is Chris Randone and If you ever watched The Bachelor or The Bachelorette, then you know getting a rose means everything. It symbolized that the guy or girl giving them out likes you. Getting a rose means you survive to keep fighting for love. Well in daily fantasy sports it’s no different. We go through a list of players deciding who will survive and make the cut into our lineups. These players fight to help us win. A true definition of love. I’ve learned being on the show that you never give out roses just for fun, there has to be a meaning behind it. We’ll take that same approach here. For tonight’s rose ceremony I’ll be giving my Top Stack, Top Pitcher, Surprise Stack, and Surprise Play of the main slate.
Astros, will you accept this rose?
Houston is one of hottest teams in baseball at the moment. In their last 10 games the Astros have outscored their opponents by 46 runs. Tonight, they’ll face Dylan Covey who’s giving up a .472 wOBA and .358 AVG to hitters this season. Covey has never pitched well on the road through his three year career thus far. His command has been shaky which explains the 8.1% strikeout rate in 2019. The Astros rank fourth best in the league in strikeouts (114) versus right-handed pitching at home (18%). Covey’s command issues can provide huge upside for the Astros bats who have discipline at the plate. Covey will come into Minute Maid Park facing a team who ranks 2nd in HRs (34), first in wOBA (.373), first in wRC+ (143), second in ISO (.234), and first in AVG (.295) versus right-handed pitching at home. With a 5.9 implied run total, single-digit ownership projections, and a favorable matchup, the Houston Astros rank as my top stack of the night.
Justin Verlander, will you accept this rose?
No surprise here. We’ll keep things going in Houston where Justin Verlander takes the mound against the Chicago White Sox. Verlander is Tuesday’s top pitching option, facing a Chicago team that ranks top-10 in strikeout rate (24.8%) against right-handed pitching on the road. In fact, the White Sox have 11 guys who possess a strikeout rate of 21.3% or higher. Verlander holds a 31.0% K rate this season and is walking only 6.5% of batters. He’s been unstoppable this year. The Houston ace has struck out 77 batters in just 64 ⅓ innings and has a ridiculous 0.79 WHIP. He’s a -360 ML favorite at home and the White Sox own the lowest implied run total on the slate (3.5).
Top Surprise Play
Minnesota Twins, will you accept this rose?
The Twins are a low-owned, high potential team tonight. Minnesota is the second best team in baseball against right-handed pitching on the road. Currently, Twins rank second in HRs (42), first in AVG (.287), second in team ISO (.252), second in wRC+ (130), and second in team wOBA (.366). They’ll take these numbers into Anaheim against Trevor Cahill whose 2019 campaign has been awful. Cahill is getting crushed by left handed hitting giving up 28 hits (.350) and five HRs, across 80 ABs this season. Jorge Polanco (2.0% projected ownership) owns a .394 ISO and .481 wOBA versus right-handed pitching on the road this season. Jonathan Schoop has a .406 ISO and .448 wOBA this year on the road versus righties. Minnesota brings power across the lineup with four guys (Rosario, Schoop, Garver, Polanco) all hitting over 6 HRs against RHP on the road so far this season. Over his last five starts, Cahill has given up 27 ER, 11 HRs, and 33 hits. Minnesota will have a ballpark downgrade, but with low ownership, a solid pitching matchup, and a track record of road success this season, Minnesota will be a team to consider in tonight’s main slate.
Washington Nationals, will you accept this rose?
With a 3.9 implied run total, Washington shouldn’t be owned much (projected 2.0%) on tonight’s main slate. The Nationals don’t rank atop the league against RHP on the road but they face a pitcher who they’ve dominated this year. In three games, Zack Wheeler has given up 17 earned runs, 21 hits, and 2 home runs over 15.2 innings pitched against the Nationals. I don’t buy into narratives too often but this is a surprise stack that could bring upside in tournaments.