Friday, May 14, brings us a host of new matchups with the majority of the league heading into their weekend series. There should be fireworks in Coors Field, along with several other juicy matchups we can target. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for hitters and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Hitters and Stacks, Friday, May 14th
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Coors Field Extravaganza — 10.5 implied runs
Generally, I forgo the analysis for Coors Field games since we are all aware of how hitter friendly the Mile High City can be. However, tonight, Yahoo has given us some wildly expensive options along with some hidden gems. I would be remiss in not pointing these players out as they are likely to by the keys to success on Friday.
Southpaw Wade Miley will be taking the hill for the Reds tonight. While he is a sneaky good pitcher, who, of course, is on everyone’s radar after throwing a no-hitter last Friday, we can still target against him with some selective bats. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, Miley has allowed more than four earned runs in a game just twice. DFS gamers are still harkening back to a two year stretch from 2016-17 when the lefty turned into a pinata across 19 starts for Seattle and 43 for Baltimore. That is why I am recommending we look to the discounted Rockies bats while letting other gamers take the salary cap hit on the spendy options. Rookie Connor Joe ($10) will be wildly popular, as will teammate Josh Fuentes ($9), however, I am willing to ride with The Masses for the discounted entry into the fun. For me, no other Colorado players are priorities with their appropriate salaries and of course the tricky matchup against Miley.
From the Reds, Eugenio Suarez at just $12 is a steal. He is eligible at the hot corner, as is Josh Fuentes, so gamers will have to choose and in this dilemma, my priority will be Suarez. Nick Senzel left Thursday’s game early after hurting his foot when running into the wall. This will open up the opportunity for Jonathan India ($8), who somehow is $4 less than he was Thursday when he was 2-for-4 with a homer, three RBIs and two runs scored — this is another time to just follow the crowd. Mike Moustakas ($16) is the other Cincinnati hitter I am considering, though on Yahoo he is only eligible at first base, so my guess is that he will be less popular than Connor Joe, which actually makes him my favorite play in a not so easy matchup against German Marquez. With two solid pitchers on the mound and a lofty 10.5-run total, a lot of the damage may be inflicted on the bullpens in the later innings. This will be a fun chess match tonight!
Main Slate
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Vince Velasquez — 5.5 implied runs
Keep in mind that the Blue Jays are back “home” at their spring training facility. TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida, which is also the home of their Single-A club, as well as the Dunedin High School Falcons. The point is that this is a very hitter-friendly environment and is a perfect countermove against the Coors Field crowd.
Vincent Velasquez does have strikeout upside, however, he also has homerun issues. In his last 443 same-handed matchups, he has a 27.8% strikeout rate, but is allowing 2.14 HR/9 with a .240 ISO. In this same timeframe, lefties are striking out at a 25% clip with a 1.58 HR/9 and a .208 ISO
Literally, the entire Toronto lineup is in play with our first priorities being Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien and Cavan Biggio. Both Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk have tremendous power upside against fellow righties. Finally, we can also work in the bottom-third of the order to differentiate our MLB DFS picks and for salary relief.
Late Slate
Cleveland Indians at RHP Chris Flexen — 4.0 implied runs
Here is a nice spot that should allow us to differentiate from other gamers on the main slate as well as the evening action. From 2017-19 across 68 innings in The Show for the Mets, Chris Flexen managed to pitch himself out of the league. Flexen spent the 2020 season pitching in the KBO for the Doosan Bears. After a successful season, Seattle decided to take a chance on the 26-year-old righty since its rotation was pretty thin.
This year across six starts and 33.1 innings, Flexen has compiled a solid 3.78 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP, though he still has a low 6.2 K/9 rate. The one thing that has changed since he was last in the league is his pitch mix. Compared to his time with New York, Flexen is using his fastball half as often while increasing the volume of his slider, curve and changeup. Hitters are going to figure this out soon enough and that is when we are likely to see regression.
In his previous stint, Flexen was hammered by same-handed hitters, allowing a 2.37 HR/9 with a 15.3% strikeout rate that did not erase his unsightly 11.1% walk rate. Lefties had their fun as well, and though they managed only a 1.20 HR/9, he could not get them out allowing a 21.6% walk rate and plenty of extra-base hits as evidenced by his .184 ISO.
The trio to target tonight will be the switch-hitting Jose Ramirez, right-handed super slugger Franmil Reyes and lefty Eddie Rosario. On the late slate, we can look to Josh Naylor or Jake Bauers for a full stack, though they are pinch-hit risks if a lefty reliever enters the game.
Final Thoughts for the Friday, May 14th MLB DFS Slate
Today, there are no weather trouble spots, and there are several teams with implied run totals over five on the main slate. As always, keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a home run play on Yahoo may be a below-average MLB DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
