Tuesday, May 11, has a robust 12-game main slate. There is no shortage of pitchers to target against, which will make tournaments decisions very interesting tonight. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for hitters and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Hitters and Stacks, Tuesday, May 11th
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Philadelphia Phillies vs. RHP Erick Fedde — 4.8 implied runs
When in doubt, stack against the Nationals’ Erick Fedde. Across his last 675 batters faced, Fedde has an abysmal 14.4% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate, well above league average. Generally he tries to survive with a 52.9% ground-ball rate and untimely hitting or double plays to get him out of jams. While he does strikeout same-handed batsmen at a 16.4% rate, they have power upside, posting a 1.63 HR/9 rate. Fedde doesn’t strike out lefties often (12.1%), but he has been lucky with a 4.46 ERA against an xFIP of 5.02 while allowing 12.4 HR/9.
Bryce Harper will be facing the franchise that drafted him, and he has been amazing this season in lefty/righty matchups, recording a .433 wOBA and a .301 ISO. At $25, and with a game in Coors Field among the dozen on the slate, Harper will likely be eschewed by most gamers. Jean Segura is back off the injured list, and he has a long history of success in same-handed matchups. This is also true for J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins has been in a slump and may be in the bottom half of the order, though do not let that dissuade from rolling him out in stacks. Didi Gregorius and Alec Bohm are solid choices to fill out a full stack and could find upside against a mediocre Nationals bullpen.
Evening Slate
Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Dylan Cease — 3.7 implied runs
It is going to be cold and miserable in Chicago tonight, with game-time temperatures in the upper-40s and a 6 to 9 mph breeze blowing across the field from third to first base. The masses will be flocking to the Rockies game, and gamers should not eschew those players either if the weather cooperates. But where is the fun in saying to take batters in the most hitting-friendly park?
While Dylan Cease may be having a breakout season, he is just two years removed from his disastrous 2019 debut. Nothing jarring has changed in his pitch mix, and most projection systems still have him as a middle-of-the-rotation starter with above-average strikeouts, though he also allows above-average power and a few too many walks. That can be a recipe for disaster if his excellent fastball is not being located where he intends.
Despite playing in the same division, the active Twins hitters have just 34 collective plate appearances against Cease. Max Kepler is the top Twin of the day, and Jake Cave makes for an excellent discount MLB DFS pick. However, this lefty duo is not likely to be close to each other in the batting order. With Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez and Alex Kirilloff all on the injured list, the Minnesota lineup is not at full strength. However, that will open up opportunities for salary saving options such as Miguel Sano and Trevor Larnach, who can also be utilized as cheap one-offs to facilitate other premier stacks. Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson and Jorge Polanco are solid plays on any slate, and Mitch Garver can be a nice way to account for the backstop on sites that require a catcher.
Late Slate
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi — 4.3 implied runs
While southpaw Yusei Kikuchi will be facing the pitcher instead of a designated hitter tonight, the Dodgers are a formidable lineup. In his first season, Kikuchi focused his pitch mix on his fastball, slider and curveball. Beginning last year, he has not thrown a curve and instead unveiled a cutter that he uses to great success. However, the Dodgers are the target because this game is on the late slate and the Mariners’ bullpen is awful.
Tonight should be a pleasant evening in Chavez Ravine with game-time temperatures right around 70 degrees and a 7 to 9 mph breeze out to right-center field. Mookie Betts is the top priority, though kudos to Yahoo and DraftKings for getting ahead of the salary. Will Smith is excellent against opposite-handed hurlers and will provide a productive bat from the catcher position. Justin Turner and Chris Taylor also have a history of success against lefties. For differentiation, Corey Seager and Max Muncy are both well above average in same-handed matchups. Tonight a three-man stack feels most appropriate, and gamers can use the aforementioned group to create trios that are adjacent to each other in the batting order for maximum synergy.
Final Thoughts for the Tuesday, May 11th MLB DFS Slate
Coors Field is dealing with cold weather, though it looks like things will clear up around first pitch. Also monitor the games in Atlanta and New York, though at this time they are only at risk of a delay and not a postponement. As always, keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a home run play on Yahoo may be a below-average MLB DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.