Tuesday, May 18, has a mega 14-game slate. There is no shortage of pitching to target with big bats, although weather in the Midwest is going to keep gamers on their toes. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for hitters and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Hitters and Stacks, Tuesday, May 18th
Yahoo Stack of the Day: New York Yankees at RHP Michael Foltynewicz — 4.7 implied runs
There is rain in the forecast, so it is likely that the roof in Arlington will be closed tonight. On the mound, the Rangers will be rolling with Michael Foltynewicz, who leads the league with 11 homeruns allowed this season, which works out to a 2.20 HR/9 rate. Foltynewicz has allowed multiple runs in all but two starts. Surprisingly, his 4.60 ERA is somewhat palatable, but the advanced metrics indicate he has been lucky with hit sequencing and an above-average 84% strand rate.
The Yankees are down several key batsmen, with Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks and Rougned Odor all on the injured list. Gleyber Torres is in the health and safety protocol, so all of this will result in the New York understudies seeing prominent placement in the batting order. Yahoo has done a nice job placing Aaron Judge at a hefty $23, which is appropriate for his 12 home runs. D.J. LeMahieu ($14), Luke Voit ($14) and Gio Urshela ($16) should round out the top of the order, and all have light-tower power in same-handed matchups.
Gary Sanchez ($9), Clint Frazier ($9) and Brett Gardner ($7) are likely to be rounding out the back end of the lineup, and they provide excellent salary relief with above-average upside against righties. Though the bullpen is a collection of unassuming names, they have actually performed in the upper third of the league by most metrics this year. However, looking at their recent history since the beginning of the 2019 season, they are a motley crew with middling results. The Yankees will be somewhat popular today with their weather safety and solid matchup, though there are plenty of ways gamers can differentiate the rest of MLB DFS lineups.
Evening Slate
Tampa Bay Rays at RHP Matt Harvey — 5.0 implied runs
Matt Harvey was unlucky last year, posting an astronomical .447 BABIP when the league average has been in the .285 to .296 range. Not much has changed over the last three seasons with his pitch mix or velocity, so he may actually have been the victim of variance. However, over his last 110.2 innings across three different organizations, Harvey has still posted 1.79 HR/9, a paltry 6.34 K/9 and a 43.1% groundball rate that is not going to be enough to consistently save him from crooked numbers.
The Rays go from one of the least hitter-friendly home parks to one of the more favorable today as the guests in Camden Yards. Temperatures will be approaching 80 degrees in Baltimore, and as the visiting team, Tampa Bay will be at the plate in all nine innings. One byproduct of having such a volatile starting rotation is that the Baltimore relievers have to absorb a lot of innings. Over the last three seasons, its bullpen has pitched the fifth-most innings in the league, and the teams ahead of them like the Blue Jays, Angeles and Rays have utilized the opener strategy while Baltimore has not, which inflates their totals.
The core four to target today will be Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena and the recently returned Ji-Man Choi. Over the last two-plus seasons, this quartet has averaged a .240 ISO against right-handed hurlers. They are they have similar salaries on Yahoo between $15 and $16, and they are comically discounted on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Meadows ($3,800) and Choi ($3,600) will help average down the group to a manageable $4,375, which provides plenty of flexibility.
Late Slate
Seattle Mariners vs. RHP Spencer Turnbull — 4.2 implied runs
Tonight it will be cooler in Seattle with potential rain in the forecast and a temperature in the low 50s. The game is not at risk with the retractable roof, but it is worth noting since it does give a slight downgrade to the hitters. The Mariners disappointed last night when they were picking up some popularity against Casey Mize, who allowed only one run across 7.2 innings.
On the late slate, most gamers are likely to turn to the Padres against southpaw Austin Gomber and the Dodgers against Merrill Kelly. This, combined with last night’s disappointing outing when the Mariners had garnered a fair amount of popularity, has them positioned as a nice contrarian stack. The top of the order is where interest should be concentrated, with Mitch Haniger and Kyle Seager leading the way with a combined 20 home runs. Then gamers can look to Kyle Lewis, who is coming at a discount across the DFS sites and will be in the cleanup spot. Though he has had limited playing time in The Show due to various injuries, he is on track to be a budding star. Then there is Jarred Kelenic, who is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, batting leadoff, which should all but assure him of five plate appearances. The Yahoo salary algorithm is the only one to appropriately recognize his potential upside, making him a steal elsewhere on all slates.
Final Thoughts for the Tuesday, May 18th MLB DFS Slate
Gamers will want to monitor the weather in the Midwest tonight, with potential weather risks in Minnesota, Kansas City, Chicago and Cincinnati. As always, keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a home run play on Yahoo may be a below-average MLB DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
