Daily Fantasy Baseball Top Starting Pitchers on DraftKings & FanDuel

MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.

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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 9

Zack Wheeler: PHI at ATL — DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $10,500

Zack Wheeler begins his second year with the Phillies following promising glimpses in the condensed pandemic season. Posting an 18.4% strikeout rate, 1.17 WHIP and .253 average against in 2020, Wheeler now has a full spring training behind him with Philadelphia. In his first start of 2021, Wheeler put on an impressive show, roasting the Braves to a 45.5% strikeout rate, 0% walk rate and .045 average against, cementing 39.2 DraftKings points and 61 FanDuel points. Heading into Atlanta, Wheeler faces a Braves team that plays into his ability to mitigate damage while putting up significant fantasy numbers.

According to the Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool, Wheeler is one of Friday’s main-slate top fantasy prospects, as he projects as a top-two pitcher on DraftKings at 21.4% and 10.8% top overall pitcher on FanDuel. With Awesemo’s fantasy point projections of 15.87 DraftKings points and 28.89 FanDuel points today, Wheeler’s inherent top-value projections of 13.5% on DraftKings and 3.1% on FanDuel are also impacted by his salary cost and forecasted ownership among the field. With Awesemo’s ownership projections of 26.5% on DraftKings and 8.1% on FanDuel, Wheeler’s popularity heading into Friday is to be expected following such a performance to open the season just days ago.

Wheeler is squaring off with the same Atlanta team he extinguished last Saturday. This time Wheeler will be called on to do so on the road in Truist Park, facing one left-handed hitter and one switch-hitter, and the 91% humidity will help batted balls carry. Yet the Braves have looked out of sorts to begin their new season, where their .323 BABIP against right-handed pitchers in 2020 (second best in majors) has degenerated to a .210 BABIP (27th) with a 30.9% strikeout rate in a small sample size against the split. Earning a 1.12 WHIP, .278 wOBA and .069 HR/9 against right-handed hitters through his career, Wheeler is slated to face seven Braves righties on Friday. He projects among the best starters on the mound for Friday’s six-game main slate.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value C

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value C

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Lance McCullers Jr.: HOU vs. OAK — DraftKings $9,100, FanDuel $9,000

Lance McCullers Jr. opened the new season by pitching five masterful innings on the road, striking out seven Oakland batters and allowing one earned run on just two hits allowed. He coasted to 24.3 DraftKings points and 39 FanDuel points. Taking a look at his 11 starts in 2020, McCullers was 3-3 record and had a 1.16 WHIP, 3.93 ERA, .218 average against, 24.7% strikeout rate and 0.82 HR/9. McCullers and the Astros welcome the same Athletics team they faced just days ago.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool projects McCullers for 22.3% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and 9.9% at being the top pitcher on FanDuel. He projects for 15.78 fantasy points on DraftKings and 28.22 FanDuel points. Awesemo projects McCullers for 24% ownership on DraftKings and 13.3% of the field on FanDuel. In addition to these factors, McCullers projects for 12.3% top-two value among starting pitchers on DraftKings and 5.8% top pitching value on FanDuel.

Facing a familiar Oakland roster, McCullers will be facing just two left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter. The righty-heavy Athletics lineup proves to be a tall order by the numbers, as McCullers has struggled with same-handed hitters through his career (.322 wOBA, 3.94 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 10.1% walk-rate). However, it’s worth noting that while the A’s had a 105 wRC+, .272 batting average, and .324 on-base rate against righty pitchers in 2020, the new season has not started on as high of a note. With a 28.1% strikeout rate, .229 wOBA, .063 ISO, and 49 wRC+ in 228 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season, the rematch for McCullers is all the more promising to repeat his 24.3 DraftKings points and 39 FanDuel points from last weekend.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value E

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value D

Latest MLB DFS Content

Tyler Mahle: CIN at ARI — DraftKings $7,500, FanDuel $8,400

The Reds have stridden to a surprising 5-1 start to the season, and starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has already made his contributions evident. Coming off a solid first start to his season, Mahle took down the Cardinals in a four-hit, five-inning, nine-strikeout outing. That led to 25.7 DraftKings points and 42 FanDuel points. In 2020, Mahle posted a 2-2 record, an 11.33 K/9, .255 BABIP and 3.59 ERA along with 1.13 HR/9 and a 29.9% strikeout rate in nine starts. On the road in Arizona, Mahle will need to be effective on both sites of the plate, as he’s forecast for an even-keeled opposing batting order.

Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool gives Mahle a 24.20% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 10.8% chance at top pitcher on FanDuel’s Friday main slate. With projections of 16.85 DraftKings points and 29.70 FanDuel points, Mahle’s mid-tier cost provides increased value, as he projects for 25.8% top-two starting pitcher value on DraftKings and 8.2% top value on FanDuel. Provided his affordability and ability to put up considerable fantasy numbers, Mahle’s ownership projections of 29.3% on DraftKings and 14.6% ownership by the field on FanDuel make plenty of sense.

Heading into Chase Field and facing a mixed assortment of hitters, Mahle is in for an interesting matchup of three right-handed hitters, four lefties (including opposing pitcher Taylor Widener), and two switch-hitters. While his career against left-handed hitters from a glance appears concerning (6.10 FIP, 5.39 xFIP, 2.10 HR/9), Mahle’s 2020 was his best season by far against left-handed hitters.. He surrendered a .285 wOBA, .176 average against and had 24.8% strikeout rate while stranding 85.3% of opposing lefties last season in 101 total batters faced. Last season’s struggles against right-handed pitchers have continued early into the 2021 Diamondbacks debut, as they are accounting for a .272 wOBA, .235 BABIP, .135 ISO and 71 wRC+. With all things considered, Mahle makes for an excellent value given his point projection and moderate price point.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value C

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value A

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Author

Chris Giordani

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.