Friday has arrived with a slew of daily fantasy baseball in store for us on DraftKings and FanDuel to usher in the weekend. With 13 games on the MLB DFS slate, the plentiful pitcher assortment offers worthwhile options in each pricing tier. Like Clayton Kershaw at home against the Marlins down to David Peterson just above bargain-bin territory. Roster construction has a multitude of angles in lieu of the distinguished variety, so have fun with it and enjoy the weekend. Here are the Spotlight Pitchers for Friday, May 14.
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Clayton Kershaw: LAD vs MIA — DraftKings $10,000; FanDuel $11,000
Clayton Kershaw is having another noteworthy season. His strikeouts have declined slightly from last season, but so, to, have his home runs allowed. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Kershaw a 25.2% chance to finish as a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and an 8.2% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. Despite some of the slate’s best MLB DFS projections, his costly price point makes Kershaw a 7.5% top-two value on DraftKings and just 0.60% on FanDuel. MLB daily fantasy ownership projections forecast Kershaw for 33.3% on DraftKings while shedding some of the attention on FanDuel.
He’s due to face six righties, two lefties and one switch-hitter from Miami, and is currently sitting with a 26.4% strikeout rate, .256 average against and 0.88 HR/9 against right-handed hitters this season. Jesus Aguilar (second) is smashing a .313 ISO when facing left-handed pitching this season, raising concern to Kershaw’s 39.1% hard contact against righty hitters. However, Miami has just a .238 batting average and 25.9% strikeout rate while earning a 95 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season. Without dragging a ton of the field investment with him, Kershaw has a fantastic matchup and considerable ceiling with the ability to go over six innings.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
Joe Musgrove: SD vs, STL — DraftKings $8,700; FanDuel $8,000
Trying to find his recent no-hitter form while averaging 15.1 DraftKings and 24 FanDuel points Joe Musgrove draws the start against the Cardinals at home. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool projects Musgrove as a 25.5% top-two pitcher on DraftKings and an 8.3% chance to be top pitcher on FanDuel, a direct reflection of our expert MLB DFS projections. Given his significant discount, Musgrove stacks up as a 14.7% top-two value pitcher on DraftKings and a 5.3% chance as top value pitcher on FanDuel. MLB daily fantasy ownership projections insinuate a heavy portion of the field getting on-board with Musgrove’s discounted rate, particularly with Coors Field on the slate.
The unbalanced Cardinals batting order of seven righties and two switch-hitters greatly favor Musgrove’s splits, as he’s striking out right-handed hitters at 35.2% with just an 0.61% HR/9. Tyler O’Neill (seventh) is a potential threat late in the St. Louis order as he’s got a .311 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year. The Cards collectively have struck-out 24.3% of the time against right-handed pitching while earning a .221 batting average and 86 wRC+ against the split. Although the ownership is high, Musgrove is undeniably too cheap on both sites with a spectacular matchup at hand, oft forcing us to get different elsewhere in our roster construction.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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David Peterson: NYM at TB — DraftKings $7,400; FanDuel $6,600
David Peterson is another guy who is priced down considerably too much facing strikeout-happy Tampa Bay. The lefty is striking out 28.6% of hitters this season. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Peterson a 9.7% chance of reaching top-two pitcher status on DraftKings and a 4% chance to be top pitcher on FanDuel. With his attractive price point given his upside Peterson lands as a 10.7% top-two value on DraftKings and a 6.9% likelihood of being top value on FanDuel. Previous blemishes are likely keeping down his MLB daily fantasy ownership projections as Peterson’s 8.2% on DraftKings and 2.9% on FanDuel have him off of the field’s radar.
Due to face six righties and three left-handed hitters, Peterson’s striking out 27.9% of right-handed bats with an admirable 1.11 WHIP. Mike Zunino (seventh) and Willy Adames (eighth) could prove to be problematic toward the bottom of the Rays’ order, each boasting a .483 and .295 ISO against lefty pitchers respectively. As a whole, the Rays are striking out at a 31.9% rate against left-handed pitching, accompanied by a .215 batting average and 88 wRC+. So long as Peterson can mitigate the home runs allowed to righty hitters (2.08 HR/9), he can achieve value and then some considering the number of potential strikeouts in the Rays order.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value A
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