Daily Fantasy Baseball Top Starting Pitchers Projections & Ownership for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups on Monday

A six-game daily fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel could be just the remedy to a case of the Mondays. Utilizing Awesemo’s MLB DFS tools and projections, we will navigate an oddly interesting group of pitchers for Monday’s condensed itinerary, including San Francisco’s Alex Wood atop the pile. Coors Field is included in the mix as well, which is always a boon for MLB DFS lineups, with bargain options such as Mitch Keller helping get to those priced-up batters. Here are the Spotlight Pitchers for Monday, May 10.

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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | May 10

Alex Wood: SF vs TEX — DraftKings $9,800; FanDuel $8,900

Alex Wood draws start Rangers in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. In five starts, he has averaged 21.6 DraftKings and 36.5 FanDuel points per game, and Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Wood a 35.9% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings. He projects slightly slightly lower on FanDuel, at 14.2% of being the top pitcher. With Wood’s price points and Awesemo’s expert MLB DFS projections, he projects as a 22.2% top-two value on DraftKings and 9.5% top value on FanDuel. Of course, he will be very popular, projecting for well over 30% ownership on both sites.

The Rangers have six righties, and Wood is striking out right-handed hitters over 30% this season. His walks and home runs are down from his career average as well. Wood has some potential problems, with Nick Solak (second) hitting .331, Adolis Garcia’s (fifth) .278 ISO and Charlie Culberson’s 193 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since 2020. However, Texas is striking out 24.1% against lefties, and so long as Wood keeps up his career-best strikeout rate, he could coast to the slate’s highest fantasy total.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value C

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Tyler Mahle: CIN at PIT — DraftKings $9,400; FanDuel $8,900

Tyler Mahle starts on the road against the Pirates. Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool gives Mahle a 32.5% chance to be a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and 14% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, largely due to his 18.6 DraftKings and 32 FanDuel points per game at a discounted price. His top-value projections do not drop much, at 22.5% to be a top-two value on DraftKings and 9.4% to be No. 1 on FanDuel. As for his MLB DFS ownership projections, he may be a bit too popular on DraftKings to merit as much consideration, but at sub-15% on FanDuel, he offers enough differentiation.

Mahle will face six righties and one switch-hitter against Pittsburgh. In last season’s larger sample size, Mahle had 12.95 K/9, 1.11 WHIP and an 8% walk rate against righties. His matchup is favorable, with lefty Colin Moran on the 10-day injured list and switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds (third) potentially returning from it. As Pittsburgh has a .237 batting average, 22.3% strikeout rate, 8.8% HR/FB rate and 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, this matchup doesn’t get much better for Mahle.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value C

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value C

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Mitch Keller: PIT vs CIN — DraftKings $6,800; FanDuel $7,000

Mitch Keller draws the start for the Pirates at home against a potent Reds roster while providing some DFS salary relief. His 8.88 K/9 and 21.2% strikeout rate this season are fine, but Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool giving him an 18% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 9.6% chance of top pitcher on FanDuel makes him a worthwhile gamble on a discount. He jumps up to a 29% top-two value on DraftKings and 14.5% top value on FanDuel. As with the other two, however, his MLB DFS ownership projections of 28.6% DraftKings and 13.5% FanDuel could require a bit of differentiation with bats, depending on the site.

The Reds will have six righties and three lefties, including Jesse Winker’s .356 ISO against right-handers. Keller has a 26.9% strikeout rate and 1.42 WHIP against right-handed hitters in six starts this season. Cincinnati collectively has a daunting 16.7% HR/FB rate against right-handed pitchers, but they also have struck out a good amount this year. Keller is not the most confidence-inducing option at starting pitcher, but if stacking a string of expensive hitters, he provides the necessary savings to do so with some upside.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points D, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value B

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Author

Chris Giordani

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.