I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers. Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
Spotlight DFS Pitchers
This is going to be fun. The pitching pricing across both sites will make for some interesting decisions that greatly shape your lineup construction.
On FanDuel, I have interest in four guys. Luckily, they have very different price tiers, which should allow for unique stacks. Patrick Corbin is at the top of heap, but he doesn’t have the same crazy ceiling as other aces have seen recently. While Corbin has my highest strikeout projection, it’s still sitting below 7.0 strikeouts, which shows me that no one is pulling away from the pack. You can also spend $500 less to go to Chris Paddack and less than half of the ownership. I see Corbin and Paddack as similar options, so in large field GPPs, I would prefer to pivot to Paddack.
If you’re not looking to spend all the way up, I would recommend taking a look at $8800 Mike Minor. Because the game is in Texas, he’s going overlooked, but there are a ton of strikeouts in the Mariners lineup, and it’s not a particularly scary crop of hitters in the projected lineup. I like using Minor as a low-owned pivot. But wait, there’s more! If you need to save lot’s of money, Brad Peacock is chilling at $7800. Peacock is already getting some ownership, but that’s to be expected when someone is priced incorrectly. Most starters look good when they get to face the White Sox, and I expect Peacock to get the same boost.
Now, DraftKings looks a bit different. Corbin is in the same spot at the top. I like him, but he’s not breaking from the pack as much as I would like to see from the most expensive pitcher. Mike Minor is the second most expensive pitcher, which oddly makes me like him more. He’s going completely overlooked because of his price/matchup, but I see this as an opportunity to get to a pitcher that projects as my second best option. I actually prefer him to Chris Paddack given the ownership projections. Unfortunately, value is a bit more difficult to find. Peacock and Weaver both look good in the $8K range, but if you need to pay down even further, the pickings are slim.
I anticipate having a few shares of Mike Leake at $6600 to try and open up some additional bats, but my assumption is my pitching ownership gets concentrated to J.A. Happ and above.