Don’t forget to check out all our FREE MLB DFS offerings today. including Awesemo’s MLB projections, which he’s made available to everyone today. As well, EMac has you covered with his Spotlight Hitters.
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
|Daniel Ponce de Leon||$7700||25.7||1.6%|
|Daniel Ponce de Leon||$8400||12.8||1.6%|
What a fun slate. FanDuel let’s you skip the Coors craziness, while DraftKings is jamming it in as the afternoon hammer. It’s going to be a heck of a Sunday, and I can’t wait.
With FanDuel leaving the Rockies game off of the slate, we don’t have to worry about the decision to pay down for German Marquez. Right now, I see three key pitching options, depending on how much you’re looking to spend. Justin Verlander is at the top of the mountain, as per usual. This time, paying up is a little scary. The Red Sox are a difficult matchup. I actually have Trevor Bauer projected for more strikeouts than Verlander, by a hair (8.7 vs. 8.6). Bauer is my second favorite starter, but he has an equally difficult matchup against the Rays. While the Rays do strikeout a bit more than average, they’re a quality lineup from top to bottom with excellent balance on both sides of the plate. I’m going to have exposure to both guys, but there’s legit concern with both matchups.
If you need even more salary, Zack Wheeler has a date with the Tigers. This is the matchup that has the highest floor. I expect Wheeler to be incredibly popular because of his price and matchup, so he feels like the clear cash game play. Pay close attention to his ownership in GPPs, where you mind find a benefit in paying up to be contrarian.
DraftKings shakes out in a similar way. Verlander is at the top, but I expect his popularity to be muted due to his price, his matchup and the prices of some of the other high-end arms. Bauer comes in $1400 cheaper, with little difference in ceiling. Wheeler is at a ridiculous $8600. He’ll be the key piece of every pitching combo, either as a super cheap SP1, or as a high-end SP1. The guy I have a bunch of interest in is German Marquez. If his ownership is depressed because of pitching in Coors, I’ll take a massive stand.
The Orioles project for a monster strikeout rate, plus David Hess will be forced to bat. If people pay too much attention to the game total, Marquez will get ignored for Wheeler. That makes Marquez a fantastic GPP play. My favorite pay down option is probably Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff is a ridiculous $9000 on FanDuel, but a much more manageable $6600 on DraftKings. The matchup is difficult, but Woodruff should simply be higher priced due to his talent. He’s worth a flier, at the least.