Monday, June 28, brings an afternoon adventure in Coors Field before settling in with a nine-game main slate. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Monday, June 28
Yahoo Stack of the Day: New York Yankees vs. RHP Dylan Bundy — 5.6 implied runs
The last time Dylan Bundy visited an American League East park, he was hammered by the Red Sox for seven runs, 10 baserunners and two home runs in four innings of work. Having spent the first five seasons of his career in Baltimore, Bundy is all too familiar with plying his trade in Yankee Stadium. While his 4.45 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky on his way to a 1-7 record and a 6.68 ERA, the 1.39 baserunners per inning and .230-plus ISO to batters from both sides of the plate are indicators of continued dismal performance.
Somehow New York is lacking left-handed batsmen, though that should not be an insurmountable issue tonight. Of the 14 home runs allowed by Bundy, eight have been to righties. None of the Yankees are going to break the bank with their very reasonable salaries. Look to Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez as the DFS core four. D.J. LeMahieu has been in a season-long slump, though he is showing signs of life with a .385 wOBA and a .183 ISO in his last 65 plate appearances against righties. The bottom of the lineup can be sprinkled in for differentiation at a discount, with Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres and Brett Gardner being the preferred pecking order.
Awesemo’s MLB DFS experts have created a new MLB Home Run & Strikeout Player Prop Tool that can help when making MLB DFS picks and offer some action down in the sports betting market. This expert tool is designed for predicting the probability of hitters to hit home runs and pitchers to reach a certain number of strikeouts. According to the Home Run Prop Tool, Stanton has an expected 25% odds to win the “to hit a home run” prop bet tonight, which is the highest on the slate.
Main Slate
Kansas City Royals at RHP Garrett Richards — 4.7 implied runs
Yesterday Hector Santiago of the Mariners became the first pitcher ejected for the potential use of foreign substances. The punishment is a 10-day suspension, with pay. While the team will have to carry the suspended player as part of the active roster, that does not seem like it is really that much of a penalty. However, pitchers will be checked every game, with starters being inspected at least twice and relievers once either at the end of an inning or when they leave the game, whichever occurs first. This seems to be the bigger deterrent than the actual punishment.
The purpose of bringing this up is, Garrett Richards has seen a dramatic drop in his fastball spin rate of nearly 20% over his last two starts, and his vaunted curveball has gone from a high of 3,477 rpm on June 1 to 2,751 rpm in his last outing. Even more telling is that he used it just 11 times in his last two starts combined, whereas he is typically in the 18- to 22-pitch range. Across his last two starts, Richards has managed just 5.2 innings, five walks, 11 runs, three home runs and only three strikeouts.
Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier and Ryan O’Hearn are cheap across all the DFS sites today. They should be in the middle of the order, and their propensity for striking out likely will be mitigated by the suddenly hittable Richards. Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield are prime MLB DFS picks, though there are no salary discounts today.
Late Slate
Houston Astros vs. RHP Tom Eshelman — 6.2 implied runs
Out of the frying pan and into the fire is how the Orioles pitchers must be feeling with a three-game series in Houston. Their last 10 games have been against the Blue Jays and Astros, which doesn’t seem fair. Today marks the 11th career start in the majors for Tom Eshelman, who has been a very hittable pitcher. Across his 79.1 career innings over three seasons in various roles, he has a 5.45 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while being hammered by lefties (.244 ISO) and righties (.268 ISO) alike.
With Alex Bregman on the injured list, Abraham Toro is seeing regular time at the hot corner and is a steal of a deal on DraftKings and FanDuel. Look to the usual suspects with Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. When Eshelman is run from the game, they will all be feasting on the beleaguered Baltimore bullpen.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP: Trevor Bauer vs. San Francisco Giants — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $53 | FanDuel $11,000 | DraftKings $10,900
While Trevor Bauer has been unapologetic about his stance on sticky stuff, he is relishing the MLB approach of checking everyone. This season Bauer has been challenging hitters more than ever, and though he leads MLB with 17 home runs allowed, he is third in strikeouts while posting a 2.57 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP.
Despite dealing with a constant stream of injured players, San Francisco has quietly been an offensive force. The Giants rank fourth with a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which indicates they are scoring runs 11% more efficiently than league average. While they are fifth with a 25.8% strikeout rate, they also have a nearly double-digit walk rate. Bauer’s salary today accounts for this risk, though he still grades out as the top pitching option. Lucas Giolito is a close second, but there are weather concerns in Chicago.
Secondary Target: RHP Freddy Peralta vs. Chicago Cubs — 3.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $56 | FanDuel $9,500 | DraftKings $10,500
Freddy Peralta is putting it all together in his fourth season. He is eighth in MLB with a 2.11 ERA, sixth with a 0.86 WHIP, and his 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings ranks fourth. The Cubs lead the league this season with a 26.5% strikeout rate against righties, though they are in the top third from a power perspective. This will be the fourth time Peralta has faced Chicago; the other three starts were in a two-week span back in April. It is a close call between Peralta and Bauer, and both are excellent choices as the ace of MLB DFS rosters.
Wild Card Option: RHP Anthony DeSclafani at Los Angeles Dodgers — 4.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $37 | FanDuel $8,300 | DraftKings $7,300
Getting a fresh start with the Giants seems to have paid off for Anthony DeSclafani, who is turning in the best performance of his seven seasons. The book on DeSclafani is that he should be targeted early and often with left-handed hitters. However, this season he seems to have mitigated that weakness and has held the opposition in check with a .297 wOBA and a .175 ISO. For comparison, the prior two seasons in 459 left-handed matchups he posted a .350 wOBA and a .221 ISO. This play is not for the faint of heart given the Dodgers are loaded with lefties, missing only Corey Seager from their regular lineup. The only implosion DeSclafani suffered was by the hands of this Los Angeles squad, who knocked him around for 10 earned runs in 2.2 innings just over a month ago. That was the only time DeSclafani allowed more than three runs, and that outing actually accounted for over a third of the 27 runs he has allowed this year. This is a tournaments-only play, but going over the field will be one way to gain differentiation tonight.
Final Thoughts for the Monday, June 28, MLB DFS Slate
Keep an eye on the weather forecasts leading up to first pitch in the Midwest. Chicago, Cleveland and St. Louis all have precipitation risk to varying degrees. As always, be mindful that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a home run play on Yahoo may be a below-average MLB DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
