MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks for Monday, July 26

Monday, July 26, brings a staggered seven-game slate with a plethora of pitchers to target. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Monday, July 26

Yahoo Stack of the Day: Toronto Blue Jays at RHP Nick Pivetta — 5.1 implied runs

This has been a perfectly respectable season for Nick Pivetta, who has top-50 marks with a 4.37 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. However, this will be the fourth time he has faced the Blue Jays, and they have had his number. Across 16.2 innings they have rocked him for a 7.56 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and five home runs.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($25) has the third-highest salary on Yahoo, which is appropriate. This season he is second with 32 home runs and 79 RBIs, while his .326 average ranks third. George Springer ($19) has a reputation of being a lefty masher, but in his last 281 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers he has a .382 wOBA and a .291 ISO.

Marcus Semien ($21), Bo Bichette ($19) and Teoscar Hernandez ($21) all have ISOs over .200 against same-handed pitchers. Randall Grichuk ($14) is just a tick behind, but he is a steal with his discounted salary. Cavan Biggio will be one of the few lefties in the lineup, and while it is a small sample size, he has four hits, a double and two home runs in eight at-bats against Pivetta.


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Evening Slate

Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Matt Manning — 5.4 implied runs

In a bit of a twist, the oddsmakers are not feeling the love for rookie Matt Manning. Minnesota dealt Nelson Cruz last week, Jorge Polanco is day-to-day with a sore back, and Byron Buxton and Kyle Garlick are still on the shelf. Yet somehow the Twins are leading the slate with a 5.7 implied run total. Tonight game -time temperatures will be approaching 90 degrees with 50% humidity and  a 9 to 11 mph breeze out to left field.

Manning has 364 innings in the minors, but only 32.1 are above Double-A. While he has notched an impressive 11 strikeouts per nine innings, that skill has not been evident in MLB. In 28 innings against MLB hitters, Manning has posted a lowly 4.2 strikeouts per nine.

Even though they are mailing in the rest of the season, the remaining Minnesota batsmen are still loaded with power. Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach are definitely top targets as the likely leadoff and cleanup hitters. Josh Donaldson is finally healthy and raking to all fields. If Manning’s strikeout stuff continues to be missing, this is the perfect matchup for Miguel Sano. In limited action, Sano has a 40.4% strikeout rate against same-handed pitchers this season. However, he also has an uber-elite .265 ISO.

Mitch Garver has been activated from the paternity list and has a .328 ISO in 76 same-handed matchups this year. Finally, gamers can also look to recently promoted prospect Brent Rooker, who homered Sunday and is coming in with a bargain salary on most DFS sites.

Late Slate

Houston Astros at RHP Darren McCaughan — 5.0 implied runs

Rookie Darren McCaughan made short work of the Rockies last week in his MLB debut, allowing one run in five innings on 61 efficient pitches. McCaughan is more of a control pitcher who tends to limit hard contact and gets by on a low-90s fastball. It needs to be pointed out that when he was drafted he had a fastball that topped out in the 85 to 87 mph range. McCaughan profiles best as a multi-inning reliever to get through the top of the opposing order. He also had only one swinging strike against Colorado.

Despite all of their notoriety for being the best offense against southpaws the last three seasons, Houston has quietly assumed the role as the best offense against righties as well, with a 117 wRC+ this year. This aligns with Houston having the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers (19.8%) while being in the top 10 for walks and power.

The top six in the order will once again be the priority targets. Look to Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker as a trio of lefty outfielders. Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve all have sustained success in same-handed matchups. Aledmys Diaz is underrated against fellow righties, and he provides a nice source of salary relief on DraftKings ($2,100) and FanDuel ($2,000).

Spotlight Pitchers

Top Target: RHP Luis H. Garcia at Seattle Mariners — 3.8 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: Yahoo $48 | FanDuel $10,000 | DraftKings $10,400

This is a good matchup today for Luis H. Garcia, who will be taking on the luckiest team in baseball. This year the Mariners are 23-8 in one-run games, which has allowed them to be eight games above .500 despite a negative-52 run differential. Seattle is striking out 25.5% of the time against right-handed hurlers, which is the fifth highest in the league. They also have below-average power and are creating runs 9% less efficiently than league average.

Though this is a lofty salary on FanDuel, keep in mind that Houston is nearly 2-to-1 favorites to garner the win. Additionally, Garcia has posted a quality start in six of his last nine outings, which is well rewarded in the FanDuel scoring system.

Secondary Target: RHP Shohei Ohtani vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.6 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: Yahoo $45 | FanDuel $11,000 | DraftKings $9,200

Even with the lofty salary on FanDuel, Shohei Ohtani is still in play. He is unlikely to go beyond the sixth inning, having done so only twice this season, but he has collected a quality start in six of his last eight appearances. The strikeout upside is tantalizing on DraftKings and Yahoo, as Ohtani has averaged 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings during this stretch. The Rockies have an abysmal offense, scoring 38% less than league average on the road and 31% less against righties, both of which are last in MLB.

Wild Card: RHP German Marquez at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim — 4.4 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: Yahoo $46 | FanDuel $10,200 | DraftKings $8,400

Today it seems that, rather than fixing the salaries for their hitters, FanDuel has decided to launch the most productive pitchers into five-figure territory. The best discount option on the blue site will be Kyle Hendricks at $8,700, and his 15 quality starts trail only Walker Buehler.

Strikeouts are the currency of the realm for MLB DFS, and German Marquez averages just over one per inning. Despite 13 of his 20 starts taking place in Coors Field, he is 31st in MLB with both his 3.50 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Aside from Ohtani, Justin Upton and Jared Walsh, the remainder of the Angels lineup is not particularly fierce. The tradeoff of facing a designated hitter instead of pitching in Denver is still an upgrade for Marquez.

Final Thoughts for the Monday, July 26 MLB DFS Slate

Nearly half of the teams on the docket have a five-run implied run total. There are no worrisome weather issues, and there are just enough pitching options to keep things interesting from a decision-making standpoint. This all lines up to a phenomenal tournament environment, which is great considering there are no other DFS sports competing with baseball, and Monday’s increased prize pools are reflective of this.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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