Saturday, July 17, has six different slates to play, along with weather to be monitored in multiple cities. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Saturday, July 17
Yahoo Stack of the Day: San Diego Padres at LHP Patrick Corbin — 5.1 implied runs
Last night, the Padres dropped 24 runs on the Nationals, including Jake Cronenworth hitting for the third cycle in franchise history. It took seven Washington pitchers to get through nine innings, though with the All-Star Break, they will still have plenty of arms backing up Patrick Corbin. Of course, that is a good thing for San Diego, as the Nationals’ bullpen is a mess. Speaking of messes, Corbin has made quite a few of them in his 17 starts this season. Inconsistent strikeouts and 18 home runs — seventh-most in the league — have been the biggest contributors. Over his last four starts, he has allowed six round-trippers across 22.2 innings with just 18 strikeouts. Additionally, he has allowed seven steals this season, which is not particularly great with the Padres leading the league in that category.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($25) and Manny Machado ($23) are commanding top salaries, however, they are worth it. Plus, with a game in Coors Field, they should be less popular than the Dodgers at similar salaries, which makes them excellent tournament options. Wil Myers ($15) and Tommy Pham ($17) are the other right-handed batsmen that we will want to target tonight. Trent Grisham ($17) and Eric Hosmer ($12) are fine MLB DFS picks to differentiate your lineups, as most gamers will shy away from lefty/lefty matchups. This season, this duo each boast a .190-plus ISO against same-handed hurlers and the Washington bullpen is mostly righties so they should have the platoon advantage for the back half of this game.
Not to bury the lede, there is a chance for thunderstorms in the area during the late afternoon and early evening. This weather is unlikely to result in a postponement and it should not adversely impact the hitters.
Awesemo’s MLB DFS experts have created a new MLB Home Run & Strikeout Player Prop Tool that can help when making MLB DFS picks and offer some action down in the sports betting market. This expert tool is designed to predict the probability of hitters hitting home runs and pitchers reaching a certain number of strikeouts.
Afternoon Slate
Oakland Athletics vs. RHP Cal Quantrill — 5.0 implied runs
The last four starts for 26-year-old Cal Quantrill have been quite fruitful for opposing hitters. In these outings, he has allowed four home runs with just nine strikeouts across 19 innings. All told, in this stretch, he has suffered a 7.57 ERA with 1.63 baserunners per inning. Temperatures will be in the low- to mid-70s for this one 1 p.m. local start with an 8- to 10-mph breeze out to right field.
Matt Olson, of course, is the primary target and he has been sublime with a .260 ISO in 206 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season. In tournaments, we can easily differentiate our lineups by looking to Mitch Moreland at the same position along with a solid salary discount. Matt Chapman looks to finally be turning things around after a sluggish start to the season and he has been moved up in the batting order. Ramon Laureano, Elvis Andrus and Jed Lowrie are fine MLB DFS picks to round out full stacks in the afternoon contests.
Late Slate
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi — 4.5 implied runs
Absolutely look to the Dodgers in Coors Field, however you do not need me to reaffirm that strategy. Let’s see what we can conjure up from the other late-night matchup. In a fun twist, both Yusei Kikuchi and Shohei Ohtani attended the same high school in Japan. Kikuchi graduated the year before Ohtani enrolled so they did not get the opportunity to take the field as teammates. During their time in the Nippon Professional Baseball League, they squared off twice, with Ohtani going 2-for-5 with a double and three strikeouts. So far in The Show, Ohtani has had the upper hand going 4-for-9 with two home runs, a double and three strikeouts.
Prior to suffering five earned runs in five innings against the Yankees in his last start, Kikuchi had put together a marvelous stretch of four games. In each of these outings he notched six strikeouts and in three of them he completed the seventh inning. He ceded just three runs across 26.2 innings with two of them coming on solo home runs. While this is not likely to be a high-scoring game, the Angels are an intriguing option, particularly if they can get to the Mariners bullpen.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP Anthony DeSclafani at St. Louis Cardinals — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $48 | FanDuel $9,900 | DraftKings $9,400
This has been one heck of a season so far for 31-year-old Anthony DeSclafani. Currently, he has the third-best record and 10-3 with his 2.68 ERA and 1.00 WHIP — both ranking in the top 15 of the league. Lefties have always been the bane of his existence, but he seems to have mitigated that weakness. Opposite-handed power has always been at the heart of the problem, though this year DeSclafani has cut his home run rate in half compared to his last three seasons. Switch-hitters Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman are likely going to be the only lefties in the order for St. Louis, which makes this an intriguing spot to employee DeSclafani on Saturday.
Secondary Target: RHP Alex Cobb vs. Seattle Mariners — 4.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $34 | FanDuel $8,800 | DraftKings $8,200
On FanDuel, Alex Cobb will be the preferred pitcher on the late-slate, however, there are several other options that are preferable on the main slate. Yahoo is giving us a nice discount, which makes Cobb an easy choice there and with all of the weather issues, the $8,200 for the veteran hurler on DraftKings seems reasonable in retrospect.
Cobb has had some mercurial results this season. In his last six starts he has allowed at least five runs in three of them. However, across his last nine appearances, those three outings were the only time he has ceded more than one run. Even more impressive is that Cobb has suffered only three home runs in 66 innings. Seattle has a 25.5% strikeout rate against righties this season, which is the fifth-highest in the league. They are average at best from a power perspective and 10% below average when it comes to scoring runs. Aside from Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager and the recently recalled Jarred Kelenic, there is no hitter that should be striking fear in the heart of any opposing pitchers.
Wild Card: RHP Tylor Megill at Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $27 | FanDuel $6,500 | DraftKings $8,000
While the walks are somewhat concerning for rookie Tylor Megill, the 26 punchouts in just 18 innings more than offset that weakness. Saturday marks the fifth start for the 25-year-old, as well as the second straight outing against Pittsburgh. Yahoo has Megill at a rock bottom salary of $27 and even on FanDuel he is quite intriguing since he will facilitate the strategy of loading up on Padres and Dodgers. The wildcard will be the $8,000 salary on DraftKings. We should see Megill approach 90 pitches and while the strikeout upside is there, he has completed the fifth inning in just two of his four games. This means he likely will not qualify for the win and has somewhat curbed upside in the 20 DraftKings fantasy point range.
Final Thoughts for the Saturday, July 17, MLB DFS Slate
Once again we have half a dozen games that are dealing with potential precipitation. It is hard to make judgement calls several hours before first pitch, so keep an eye on everything leading up the various lock times.