Sunday, July 4, has wall-to-wall baseball, with most DFS sites offering four or five different holiday slates. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Sunday, July 4
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Milwaukee Brewers at Tyler Anderson — 4.7 implied runs
While PNC Park tends to favor pitchers, lefty Tyler Anderson will be doing his darnedest to dispel that truth. Over his last eight games, Anderson has ceded 12 home runs across 44 innings. In this span he has a 5.53 ERA and just over seven strikeouts per nine innings. Across his last 500 matchups against opposite-handed batsmen, Anderson has allowed a .350 wOBA and a .225 ISO. Unfortunately for him, Milwaukee can easily roll out a lineup loaded with righties.
The Brewers have stormed to an eight-game lead in the National League Central with their 11-game winning streak. The Yahoo DFS salary algorithm is providing several discount dandies who will facilitate a full stack while still allowing for some batters in Coors Field. Avisail Garcia ($13) has absolutely raked in his last 300 plate appearances against southpaws, with a .350 wOBA ad a .200 ISO. Manny Pina ($7) should be in the lineup, and while he is likely to be at the bottom of the order, home runs hit from those slots count for just as many fantasy points. In his last 141 righty/lefty matchup he has a sterling .368 wOBA with a .238 ISO.
While there is no salary break for Luis Urias ($18) and Willy Adames ($19), they are at the top of the order and all but assured of five at-bats in this game. Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura have both had mixed results this season. Hiura has been excellent since returning from a minor league stint, and he has hits in eight of his last nine games, including a double and three home runs. Yelich seems to be harboring some sort of core injury (back or potentially oblique), though he now has hits in 15 of his last 20 games. In this stretch he has just seven extra base hits, though five have been in the last 10 games. With the hot-hitting lineup around him, Yelich has scored in each of his last eight games, notching 12 total runs.
Awesemo’s MLB DFS experts have created a new MLB Home Run & Strikeout Player Prop Tool that can help when making MLB DFS picks and offer some action down in the sports betting market. This expert tool is designed to predict the probability of hitters hitting home runs and pitchers to reach a certain number of strikeouts.
Afternoon Slate
Minnesota Twins at RHP Brad Keller — 5.5 implied runs
In his first three seasons Brad Keller essentially curtailed the power stroke of opposing batters. In 771 righty/lefty matchups he allowed just 0.68 home runs per nine innings and a .100 ISO. During that same timeframe he was even better in 736 same-handed matchups, allowing just 0.53 home runs per nine innings and a .102 ISO. The results this season have been markedly different, with 1.25 home runs per nine to lefties and a .170 ISO to lefties 1.43 home runs per nine and a .196 ISO to righties.
Even with several key hitters on the injured list (Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Kyle Garlick, Rob Refsnyder) and Josh Donaldson (hamstring) and Andrelton Simmons (ankle) being dinged up, the Twins still have a stacked lineup. Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are the trio to target first. Then look for a full stack by including Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach at a discount. Though Donaldson is 50/50 to play, he profiles well against the current iteration of Keller.
Late Slate
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. RHP Tom Eshelman — 6.2 implied runs
Game-time temperatures will be approaching 80 degrees in Anaheim for this 1:07 p.m. local start. On the afternoon slate the pivot away from the Angels will be the Mariners against Michael Foltynewicz and then the Rangers against Chris Flexen in the same game.
Today will mark the 26th appearance in the majors Tom Eshelman. While he was trending in the right direction last year, in his three outings this season he has been an unmitigated disaster on the mound. He has completed 12.1 innings in those starts, allowing a 6.57 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. The bigger issue is that he has tallied just four strikeouts and just one in his last 9.1 innings.
Shohei Ohtani leads the way and is closely followed by Jared Walsh, who has a very quiet 20 home runs and 60 RBIs that rank seventh and fourth, respectively. Anthony Rendon is finally getting back to a reasonable level of production, and David Fletcher and Phil Gosselin provide salary relief on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP Freddy Peralta at Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $58 | FanDuel $9,900 | DraftKings $9,700
This has been a phenomenal season for Freddy Peralta, continuing the success he found last season. His 2.17 ERA ranks ninth, his 0.87 WHIP is fifth and his 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings rank fourth. Pittsburgh has a bottom-three offensive efficiency, creating 18% runs less than league average against right-handed pitchers. While they generally limit strikeouts with a 22.5% rate, there is a massive tradeoff with their .123 ISO, which is 10% below the next worst team in the league.
Secondary Target:
RHP Lucas Giolito at Detroit Tigers — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $49 | FanDuel $9,600 | DraftKings $8,900
Today marks the fourth time this season that Lucas Giolito has faced the Tigers, and they certainly have had his number. In the prior 19.2 innings against him, Detroit has accounted for seven of the 18 home runs allowed by Giolito and handed him two of his five losses. They have also fanned at a high rate of 11.4 times per nine innings, so all is not lost. While this short-term success is unlikely to be maintained, it is just enough to drop Giolito form the top pitching recommendation. However, on the two-pitcher sites he should still be in close to half of lineups at the minimum.
Afternoon Target: RHP Charlie Morton vs. Miami Marlins — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $50 | FanDuel $9,000 | DraftKings $7,800
Forget about Charlie Morton on Yahoo and instead look to Blake Snell ($36) or Patrick Sandoval ($37), who both have favorable salaries. If straying away from Peralta or Giolito in tournaments on FanDuel, then Robby Ray ($10,800) or Snell ($8,100) would be the preferred pivots. However, on DraftKings Morton is quite intriguing for those fishing for savings.
The heavy ground ball tendencies of Morton should help mitigate the power potential of Adam Duvall and Garrett Cooper. Starling Marte has been in a slump this season while dealing with injuries, though he is showing signs of life, as is Jazz Chisholm. However, after that the Marlins lineup falls off a cliff, and there is even some strikeout upside for Morton.
Final Thoughts for the Sunday, July 4, MLB DFS Slate
Once again, keep an eye on the weather in New York and Philadelphia heading into the first pitch this afternoon. As always, be mindful that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a home run play on Yahoo may be a below-average MLB DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
