Tuesday, June 29, has all 30 teams in action, including a game in Coors Field, which should make for a wild tournament environment. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Tuesday, June 29
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Chris Flexen — 5.6 implied runs
It is going to be warm and humid in Buffalo as the Blue Jays host the Mariners. Each weather metric is approaching 80, which is a nice combination to keep fly balls in the air a little longer than usual. There is also a chance of showers, so be sure to keep tabs on the forecast leading up to first pitch.
Chris Flexen has somehow been surviving after being given a second chance by Seattle, who is desperate for starting pitchers. Remember that Flexen washed out of the league with the Mets and spent time honing his craft in the KBO. Though he has allowed more than four runs just three times through 13 starts, he is continually living on the edge. The strikeout rate is too low and the walk rate too high, and it is only a matter of time before this manifests in a spontaneous combustion.
Yahoo has favorable salaries for all of the Toronto hitters, pricing all of them but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($27) between $17 and $20. Just pair Guerrero with Randal Grichuk ($12) or Lourdes Gurriel ($13), and that will average down the salaries to a palatable level.
Grichuk and Gurriel both are approaching .200 ISOs in same-handed matchups looking at the last two-plus seasons, so they are by no means just a throw in for rosters. George Springer is back, and he makes this already impressive lineup even more dangerous. Finally, Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez and the bat boy are all viable options tonight.
Awesemo’s MLB DFS experts have created a new MLB Home Run & Strikeout Player Prop Tool that can help when making MLB DFS picks and offer some action down in the sports betting market. This expert tool is designed for predicting the probability of hitters to hit home runs and pitchers to reach a certain number of strikeouts. According to the Home Run Prop Tool, New York Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton has an expected 30% odds to win the “to hit a home run” prop bet tonight, which is the highest on the slate.
Evening Slate
Arizona Diamondbacks at RHP Carlos Martinez — 4.1 implied runs
Absolutely play the Rockies against Chase De Jong on the main and evening slates. Now that that has been covered,, it is time to look for some differentiation. This will be the sixth June start for Carlos Martinez, who only feels like he has been in the league for 100 years. After a solid turn as the Cardinals’ closer in 2019, he has been a disaster since returning to the starting rotation last season. In those five June starts, Martinez has managed only 19.2 innings, a 13.73 ERA and 2.44 baserunners per inning. Surprisingly, home runs have not been his downfall, allowing only four in this dreadful stretch.
The Diamondbacks are not getting any love from any of the DFS salary algorithms, though considering they have only one victory in their last 27 road games, there is not a lot to work with here. However, realize that this is not entirely the fault of the offense, as the 4.2 runs per game for Arizona is better than 11 other teams in the league.
Looking to the players with power first, David Peralta, Christian Walker and switch-hitter Eduardo Escobar should be the primary MLB DFS picks. Stephen Vogt is also a nice punt catcher.
Late Slate
Oakland Athletics vs. RHP Michael Foltynewicz — 5.0 implied runs
The two California games are among the coolest on Tuesday, particularly in Oakland where the game time-temperatures will be in the low 60s. Michael Foltynewicz will be looking to take back the league lead for home runs allowed, as he is trailing Kyle Hendricks by two. Of course, Hendricks has a better strikeout rate and an ERA that is a 1.4 runs below Foltynewicz in 12 more innings. Of Foltynewicz’s 18 home runs, seven have been to righties and 11 to lefties.
Even with Mark Canha on the injured reserve, the Athletics still can run out a gauntlet of power bats from both sides of the plate. Matt Olson is the priority play, and that is where the field will land as well given his .378 wOBA and .276 ISO over the last two-plus season against opposite-handed pitchers. Fortunately, gamers can turn to teammate Mitch Moreland, who is nearly as effective from the left side of the plate, with a .364 wOBA and .258 ISO in the same timeframe. Righties Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy also boast .220-plus ISOs in same-handed matchups during the same time period.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP: Brandon Woodruff vs. Chicago Cubs — 3.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $57 | FanDuel $11,400 | DraftKings $11,000
While this is an apex, ace-like salary for Brandon Woodruff, he has certainly earned it given his sterling results. On the season Woodruff is third in MLB with a 1.89 ERA and second with a 0.76 WHIP. Though he has allowed five home runs in his last three starts, two of those came at Coors Field. Woodruff is also striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings, which is a top-20 rate among starters. The Cubs lead Major League Baseball with a 26.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and while they are in the top third from a power perspective, they are scoring 7% less runs than league average.
Secondary Target: LHP Robbie Ray vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $41 | FanDuel $10,800 | DraftKings $10,500
While it can be an adventure rostering Robbie Ray, he has tremendous strikeout upside. Never one to shy away from attacking hitters, Ray allows his fair share of long balls. The biggest difference for him this season is curtailing his walks. Over his last four starts, even though he has allowed one home run in each, Ray gave up just six earned runs while keeping the bases clear. His 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings are seventh in the league. Seattle is a bottom-five team against southpaws by most metrics, and other than Mitch Haniger and Ty France, there are not too many trouble spots for Ray to navigate.
Wild Card Option: RHP J.C. Mejia vs. Detroit Tigers — 4.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $27 | FanDuel $6,200 | DraftKings $6,100
Today’s lucky pitcher facing the Tigers is J.C. Mejia. While converting from reliever to starter, in his last three outings Mejia has seen his pitch count increase from 55 to 77 to 96, making him a viable punt play as the second pitcher on Yahoo and DraftKings.
Final Thoughts for the Tuesday, June 29, MLB DFS Slate
Keep an eye on the weather forecasts leading up to first pitch in the Midwest and the East Coast. It is going to be hot and humid with the chance of evening thunderstorms in a variety of locations. As always, be mindful that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a home run play on Yahoo may be a below-average MLB DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
