Wednesday, July 7, brings split-slate action on the first of two getaway days. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Wednesday, July 7
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Matt Harvey — 6.2 implied runs
In what must feel like a bad dream for Matt Harvey, he will be facing the Blue Jays for the third time in his last four starts. His one-game respite was in his last appearance when he squared off against the Astros in Houston. While he has suffered only two home runs in this trio of games, he has just nine strikeouts over the 14.1 innings and posted a 5.65 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. In six June starts he tallied 23.2 innings, an 8.37 ERA, 1.85 WHIP and a paltry 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
Thankfully, the Yahoo salary algorithm has recognized this juicy matchup for Toronto and has appropriately goosed the salaries for the key hitters. Gamers can mix and match the Blue Jays as needed since it is hard to go wrong with any of their hitters. The power against righties up and down this lineup is downright impressive. Outside of whoever is behind the plate, only Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.191) has a sub-.200 ISO over the last two-plus seasons against right-handed pitchers. Marcus Semien (.216), Bo Bichette (.214), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.228), George Springer (.308), Teoscar Hernandez (.209), Cavan Biggio (.202) and Randal Grichuk (.208) all have found sustained success, and with no easy outs in this lineup, it is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.
Awesemo’s MLB DFS experts have created a new MLB Home Run & Strikeout Player Prop Tool that can help when making MLB DFS picks and offer some action down in the sports betting market. This expert tool is designed to predict the probability of hitters hitting home runs and pitchers to reach a certain number of strikeouts.
Afternoon Slate
Atlanta Braves at RHP Wil Crowe — 5.2 implied runs
Shout out to Wil Crowe, who did not allow a home run in his last start after multi-homer games in four of his preceding six appearances. The strikeouts and walks have been all over the place, but the best way to summarize Crowe’s efforts is to just look at his career results. Across 8.1 innings last year and 50.1 this season, Crowe has a 7.06 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and 2.45 home runs per nine innings.
This game is going to be warm and humid with temperatures starting out in the mid-80s. While there is rain in the forecast, it looks like that will not be an issue until the early evening and well after the game. The DFS sites have done a nice job with the salaries for Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman. However, depending on the site, the salaries vary wildly for Ozzie Albies. Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson provide cap flexibility, and if he is in the lineup, Gil Heredia is a true discount dandy.
Late Slate
San Diego Padres vs. LHP Patrick Corbin — 4.9 implied runs
Patrick Corbin has allowed five home runs in his last three starts. On the season, 16 of his 17 have been the doing of opposite-handed hitters, and tonight he will be facing a veritable gauntlet of them at the top of the Padres order. Fernando Tatis Jr. (27), Manny Machado (15) and Wil Myers (10) are all going to be threats to take the ball out of the yard tonight. The Nationals starters have not done many favors for their bullpen, which has seen heavy work over the last five days. This bodes well for Trent Grisham (10) and Jake Cronenworth (12) to see some tired right-handed relievers, which in turn brings their power upside into the mix in the later innings.
The gift that keeps on giving when rolling with the Padres is that they have by far the most stolen bases in the league. Washington’s Yan Gomes has been run on frequently, allowing 27 of 42 (64%) base stealers to succeed. Teams are running on Gomes because he is mediocre at preventing thefts, and over the last three seasons he has allowed the sixth-most stolen bases in the league. In this same timeframe Corbin has allowed 22 steals, which is the 22nd most among pitchers.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP Zack Wheeler at Chicago Cubs — 2.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $55 | FanDuel $11,200 | DraftKings $10,300
This year has been a stellar one for Zack Wheeler, as he is on the short list for National League Cy Young. Across the board he is notching career bests; his 2.05 ERA ranks fourth in MLB, his 0.94 WHIP is ninth, and his 139 strikeouts top the list. The Cubs lead MLB with a 26.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and they are scoring nearly 10% less efficiently than league average. Keep an eye on the weather for any precipitation risks, but it is going to be in the upper 60s with a 7 to 10 mph breeze coming in from left field.
Secondary Target: LHP Alex Wood vs. St. Louis Cardinals — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $38 | FanDuel $8,300 | DraftKings $8,500
While he never fully realized and was able to sustain his early success, Alex Wood is still a solid pitcher. He does not consistently get strikeouts, but his 12.6% swinging-strike rate and 68.4% first-strike rate over his last 525 batters generally allow him to work ahead in the count and then induce groundballs with his sinker. The Cardinals are close to league average against lefties despite being dreadful against righties. However, Wood’s salary, game-time temperatures in the upper 50s and a decent chance to garner the win mitigate any concerns about the St. Louis offense.
Wild Card: RHP Chris Paddack vs. Washington Nationals — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $36 | FanDuel $7,600 | DraftKings $8,700
This recommendation is more about the reasonable salary for Chris Paddack than the fantasy upside. Everything is going to come down to how many strikeouts Paddack can coax from a depleted Washington offense. Though he has a 24.8% strikeout rate across his last 1,100 batters faced, he can be maddeningly inconsistent. Being in the same division as the Dodgers and making appearances in Coors Field does not help those with a selective DFS memory. What does help is the Nationals lineup featuring Alcides Escobar as the leadoff hitter and Gerardo Parra as the third outfielder. Neither of those players should be in the league, let alone actually starting and seeing regular playing time. If Paddack can successfully complete the fifth inning, there is a good chance the Padres will have the lead and put him in position to earn a victory.
Final Thoughts for the Wednesday, July 7, MLB DFS Slate
There are six games looking at potential precipitation. These include the Brewers – Mets doubleheader in New York and the games in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago, Kansas City and Pittsburgh.
