Wednesday, July 28, brings split-slate action with the first of two getaway days this week. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Wednesday, July 28
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Arizona Diamondbacks at RHP Jordan Lyles — 4.5 implied runs
While the roof will be closed in the Texas heat, this is still a great matchup for the Arizona offense. Jordan Lyles is currently second in MLB with 24 home runs allowed, trailing only teammate Mike Foltynewicz, who somehow has allowed 11 more home runs in one fewer inning of work.
Lyles has been pitching batting practice over his last two games, ceding seven home runs in 11 innings against the Blue Jays and Tigers. The advanced metrics are even less flattering, and he has been crushed by batsmen from both sides of the plate. The top of the order will be the best source of production, and Kole Calhoun ($7) is a steal at the Yahoo minimum salary. Christian Walker ($10) and David Peralta ($7) are also cheap, and they should be providing power upside in the heart of the lineup.
Switch-hitters Eduardo Escobar ($17) and Asdrubal Cabrera ($12) are solid plays. Finally, whoever has the better slot in the batting order between Josh VanMeter ($11) and Pavin Smith ($15) is also in play. The Diamondbacks have been better recently, but they are still one of the more anemic offenses in the league, so keeping things to a four-man complementary stack is the savvy play. The salary flexibility they provide will prove invaluable for the rest of roster construction strategy.
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Early Slate
Detroit Tigers at RHP J.A. Happ — 4.9 implied runs
It is looking like J.A. Happ is at the end of the line. Since June he has made nine starts, allowing multiple home runs in six. Across these 49 innings he has ceded 16 longballs, a 6.97 ERA and 1.79 baserunners per inning with just 40 strikeouts.
Jonathan Schoop could be traded at any moment with the deadline less than 48 hours away, though this is the perfect spot for him to showcase his power to any prospective bidders. Eric Haase continues to impress with a .446 ISO in his last 67 plate appearances against southpaws. While rookie Akil Baddoo is still looking for his first extra-base hit in a lefty/lefty matchup, the Tigers seem to have cemented him in as the leadoff man for the remainder of the season to get him extra experience. He is lightning quick on the base paths and has some pop in his bat, with four home runs and two doubles in his last eight games.
Jeimer Candelario and Robbie Grossman can be used to round out full stacks, and Miguel Cabrera is also in the mix. On a fun note, there is a myth in the DFS world that Cabrera hits better during day games, but this does not bear out in actual statistics over the last five years or so. Rolling with rookie Zack Short, who does have actual upside, is the better play.
Late Slate
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez — 5.7 implied runs
This has been a horrible season for Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has actually been better in his Coors Field home park than he has been on the road. Since the beginning of June he has been particularly dreadful across nine appearances spanning 46.2 innings, with 10 home runs and 1.54 baserunners per inning culminating in a 7.32 ERA. Shohei Ohtani seems all but assured of adding to his league-leading home run total in this matchup. Gamers can also look to Justin Upton, Jared Walsh and Brandon Marsh, and the latter two have excellent power from the left side of the plate.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP Zack Wheeler vs. Washington Nationals — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $49 | FanDuel $10,600 | DraftKings $10,300
While Zack Wheeler has allowed nine runs in his last three starts, he has allowed only 14 in his last nine appearances. He has a 2.37 ERA, which ranks eighth, and his 1.01 WHIP is 12th in the league. As a bonus, his 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings are 10th among qualified starters. Tonight will be the fourth time he has faced Washington this season, but it is the first meeting in over a month. Trea Turner was a removed from the game last night after receiving a positive COVID-19 test, which is a major blow to an already anemic offense.
Secondary Target: RHP Walker Buehler at San Francisco Giants — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $55 | FanDuel $11,500 | DraftKings $10,500
Walker Buehler is in the midst of a phenomenal season. His 2.31 ERA and 0.91 WHIP are both top-six marks, and he leads MLB with 17 quality starts in his 20 appearances. This will be the second straight start that Buehler has squared off against the Giants, and he held them to a single run last Thursday while striking out nine across 7.1 innings. In the four previous games this season he ceded just three runs in 27 innings.
Wild Card: LHP Andrew Heaney vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $38 | FanDuel $7,600 | DraftKings $7,400
Strikeouts are the name of the game for lefty Andrew Heaney, and his 10.7 per nine innings are just outside of the top 10. The tradeoff is power, and Heaney is allowing 1.54 home runs per nine innings. Outside of Trevor Story, Brendan Rodgers and C.J. Cron, who have been dinged up recently, there are no real threating power bats in the Rockies lineup. Heaney is by no means safe, but that is currently factored into his salary, particularly on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Final Thoughts for the Wednesday, July 28 MLB DFS Slate
There is some precipitation risk on the East Coast for the main slate. Keep tabs on Baltimore, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; though delays are possible, a postponement is unlikely.
