Tuesday, Sept. 14, brings 12 games on the main slate with plenty of decision points. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Tuesday, Sept. 14
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Philadelphia Phillies vs. RHP Adrian Sampson — 5.7 implied runs
Most gamers will be flocking to the Yankees, who are facing the hapless Orioles. This should take some of the interest away from the Phillies, and particularly Bryce Harper ($27), who is commanding a lofty salary for his matchup with Adrian Sampson. The Cubs are Sampson’s fourth MLB organization, and he is mostly an innings eater. Across his last 600 batters faced, Sampson has been rocked by lefties for a .200 ISO and by righties for a .300 ISO. This year Harper has a .394 ISO against righties, along with his .307 batting average, which is a top-10 mark. If not for playing 20 fewer games than most regulars, Harper would be in the mix for National League MVP.
The rest of the key Philadelphia regulars are all coming in with palatable salaries. The first trio to target would be at the top of the order, with Odubel Herrera ($16), Jean Segura ($14) and catcher J.T. Realmuto ($13) meshing well with Harper. For differentiation, depending on their spot in the order, Brad Miller ($15), Andrew McCutchen ($11) and Didi Gregorius ($10) are also in play. The Chicago bullpen is nothing to write home about, and with game-time temperatures in the mid-80s and a 10 mph breeze out to centerfield, this is an excellent matchup for the Phillies.
Evening Slate
Houston Astros at RHP Jordan Lyles — 5.7 implied runs
It is a tossup on the evening slate between the Astros, White Sox and Athletics. Ultimately, Rangers pitcher Jordan Lyles breaks the tie with his league-leading 36 home runs allowed. Though, Lyles has not been a complete disaster this season, and he somehow has 10 quality starts in 26 appearances. However, when it goes bad, things go completely off the rails. For instance, in his six August outings he managed to log 34.1 innings. However, that was accompanied by 11 home runs and a 7.60 ERA.
Same-handed hitters have accounted for 23 of Lyles’ home runs, which bodes well for Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Chas McCormick. Though he is third in the batting title race with a .316 average, somehow gamers continue to ignore Yuli Gurriel despite hitting in the middle of the loaded lineup.
Lyles gives up plenty of extra-base hits to lefties, so Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are very much in play. The nice thing about the Astros is that they have a strong lineup top to bottom, which allows plenty of opportunities for unique lineup construction, even with just six teams in the player pool. The Astros are a top-three stacking option on the main slate as well.
Late Slate
San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Jake Arrieta — 5.2 implied runs
The Blue Jays lead MLB in home runs, but the Giants rank second without any of the superstar power of Toronto. This is the end of the line for Jake Arrieta, who was claimed by the desperate Padres after he was outright released by the Cubs. Through 94.2 innings, Arrieta is allowing 2.2 home runs per nine innings, a 7.04 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.
Brandon Belt has a team-leading 24 home runs in just 85 games this year, and he is the anchor for Giants stacks. LaMonte Wade Jr. has been a nice find for San Francisco, and he is coming with a favorable salary on FanDuel $2,900 and DraftKings $3,600. Buster Posey is producing at a rate similar to his 2012 MVP campaign, and Kris Bryant, Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford and Mike Yastrzemski can be mixed in depending on positional need and salary cap considerations.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Nathan Eovaldi at Seattle Mariners — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $39 | FanDuel $10,000 | DraftKings $9,600
There are some questions at the top of the board, with Gerrit Cole having left his last start early with a sore hamstring and Zack Greinke coming back from the COVID-19 list. Jose Berrios is intriguing, but the Tampa Bay offense is formidable and leads the league in runs scored. On the flip side, Seattle is bottom 10 in runs scored, and they are only clinging to their slim playoff hopes because of a ridiculous 31-18 record in one-run games.
Nathan Eovaldi is having a stellar season, and he is just inside the top 25 among qualified starters for his 3.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 171 strikeouts. Since Memorial Day Eovaldi has made 18 starts, covering 108.1 innings with a 3.16 ERA and a tick shy of 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Though the Mariners are pesky, they do not have any threatening hitters outside of Mitch Haniger and Kyle Seager.
Secondary MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Kyle Gibson vs. Chicago Cubs — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $34 | FanDuel $8,600 | DraftKings $8,100
Kyle Gibson has allowed three or fewer runs in 22 of his 27 appearances this season. While his strikeout rate is as pedestrian as ever, Gibson typically is able to work out of jams and does not implode all that often. Chicago is an offense to target with pitchers, as they are getting by on sheer luck. Tuesday’s projected lineup for the Cubs has a 27.8% strikeout rate against righties, and that does not include the pitcher. They have some pop in their lineup, but that is accounted for in Gibson’s salary across the DFS sites.
Wild Card MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Erick Fedde vs. Miami Marlins — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $32 | FanDuel $7,200 | DraftKings $6,900
Paulo Espino worked out as the discount dandy, and Erick Fedde in the same matchup. Fedde is still maddeningly inconsistent, but at least now he generally performs well against poor offenses. In his two starts against Miami this season, Fedde has gone 12.1 innings, allowing one earned run and striking out 14. That is no guarantee of success for today, but the current iteration of the Marlins is barely a Triple-A offense.
Final Thoughts for the Tuesday, Sept. 14 MLB DFS Picks Slate
There are some giant tournaments tonight, as the DFS sites are looking to get that NFL money back in play before Thursday. Wednesday also brings another fun slate, so be prudent with entries during the cross-over sports period, and keep in mind that the NBA is only a month away.
