I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers. Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
Now this feels like a fun Sunday! I think the spread of pitching talent across the salary tiers makes for an interesting exercise in lineup construction.
On FanDuel, Noah Syndergaard looks like the best combination of upside and price. Getting to pitch in Miami, against a lackluster Marlins team, is as good as it gets. Meanwhile, Chris Sale has to battle the loaded Astros lineup. Those two guys are my top two arms, but if forced to choose, I’ll take Thor. The savings ($1200) is just too much to ignore. Syndergaard makes for the better cash option, as well. That’s not to say that I won’t be looking to some Sale, but paying all the way up to $11,600 will be difficult due to the price of some of the quality bats this afternoon. I expect Hyun-Jin Ryu to get lost in the shuffle, but he’s at least worth a flier in GPPs. It’s a tough park and a less-than-great strikeout matchup, but Ryu has the stuff to make that not matter. I see two other potential options if you want to save even more money. Shane Bieber at $9500 against the Orioles is hard to ignore. It’s a coinflip between Bieber and Thor as to who has the best matchup on the slate. If Bieber isn’t your cup of tea, you can take the risk of rostering a pitcher in Texas. Jack Flaherty has excellent stuff, but the implied total in this game is massive. I don’t expect much ownership going to Flaherty, but I anticipate having him in 10%+ of my lineups due to the strikeout upside.
DraftKings pricing keeps a similar structure to FanDuel for today, so my thoughts on the guys above carry over. The interesting part of DK is figuring out how low you want to go at SP2. The mid-tier is incredibly busy, with Eickhoff, Folty, Roark, Lopez and Thorton all looking similar relative to salary. If I’m paying down, though, I’m looking to Sandy Alcantara at $5700. The ballpark is fantastic, and the Mets implied total is just 4.2 runs. This should allow you enough savings to find any bats you want. Taking salary into account, his upside isn’t much different than the arms in the middle tier.
