Baseball is back baby! Who didn’t see Chris Sale and Zack Greinke getting rolled for a combined 7.2 innings, 14 earned runs on SEVEN HOMERUNS?!?!, while Jordan Zimmermann spun a gem with a perfect first six innings?!?! Let’s see what we have on tap for tonight, shall we?
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Toronto Blue Jays vs LHP Matt Boyd – 4.5 implied runs
While LHP Matt Boyd did improve from 2017 to 2018 and he will be someone we target in matchups among the AL Central also-rans, he is someone we can target today with the top of the order from the Blue Jays.
Newcomer Brandon Drury is projected to lead off and he is discounted on all sites and he is sporting a solid .182 ISO in righty/lefty matchups over his last 397 at bats. Randall Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez and Justin Smoak each have a .340+ wOBA and a .245+ ISO over their last two seasons against southpaws. Danny Jansen will be batting towards the bottom of the order, but he is a cheap catcher and also in play if you are considering a “wrap-around” stack.
St Louis Cardinals at RHP Freddy Peralta – 4.2 implied runs
RHP Freddie Peralta had mixed results in his rookie season, though after making his mid-May debut in Coors Field with 13 punchouts and three baserunners allowed over 5.2 innings, the bar was set very high. The strikeout upside is there, but he had questions with his stamina and tended to flag after second time through the order. Because we are just in the second day and only 16 teams are in action, there are not as many pitchers to target, so this is just as much about getting a favorable hitting environment and a veteran group of batsmen.
While he compiled a 29.9 K%, Peralta also had a 40.1 HH%, 51.5 FB% and a 4.46 xFIP. Looking at regulars Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong and Marcell Ozuna is a good place to start and DO NOT OVERLOOK new acquisition Paul Goldschmidt who has a .400 wOBA and a .245 ISO in his last 1,000 plate appearances against same-handed pitchers.
Late Slate
Los Angeles Angels at RHP Marco Estrada – 4.4 implied runs
Keep in mind that it will be cooler through April more often than not for the evening West Coast games located near the water which of course will bring in the “marine layer” effect that tends to turn maybe homeruns into warning track outs. Weather is of course baked into the implied run totals, but just a reminder that things can get a little squirrely and we have forecast temperatures in the 58-60 range at first pitch with a 7-10 mph breeze blowing out to right field.
Over his last 1,400 batters faced, RHP Marco Estrada has a whopping combined 5.65 xFIP, 52.4 FB% and is allowing a .215 ISO to lefties and .232 ISO to righties and over the last two seasons, Estrada has a 1.64 HR/9 which is the fifth highest rate among pitchers with at least 170 innings pitched over that stretch.
We will want to have Mike Trout, Justin Bour and Zack Cozart as our primary targets, but this is a spot on the short slate where we can employ Albert Pujols and of course, Kole Calhoun is once again cheap and leading off.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
