Let the split slate madness begin! Today DraftKings is offering seven contest sets consisting of at least two game and FanDuel is right there with five of their own. Every team is in action with first pitch spanning from 1:05pm ET through 9:10pm ET. Let’s see what pitchers we should be targeting against on Saturday!
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EARLY SLATE
Cincinnati Reds vs RHP Trevor Williams – 4.6 implied runs keep an eye on the weather
This stack recommendation brings into play several factors in ballpark, weather (10-12mph shifting breeze to left), one of the higher implied run totals and a revamped Reds lineup that has a solid top five hitters we can look to with balance from both sides of the plate.
Here comes the caveat, even though RHP Trevor Williams has a less than favorable 4.69 xFIP in his career spanning 1,300+ hitters, he does a good job limiting hard contact 29.4 HH%, .115 ISO vs lefties and .152 ISO vs righties – his 81.1% contact rate demonstrates that he allows a lot of balls in play.
Over the last two seasons Joey Votto, Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker have all managed a .340+ wOBA against right-handed hurlers and everyone from this group except Winker has a .207+ ISO in that same time frame. The hope here is that this group strings together some doubles and we may get lucky with a homerun as Williams has a low .081 HR/9 rate over his 321 career innings pitched.
MAIN SLATE
Chicago Cubs at RHP Edison Volquez – 5.0 implied runs
Though it will only be in the upper 50s-low 60s at first pitch, we do have a robust 15mph+ wind blowing out to right field which could make things fun for left-handed hitters in Arlington tonight.
We last saw RHP Edison Volquez on the mound on July 5, 2017 in St. Louis where he suffered and elbow injury and he has spent the last year and a half completing his post-Tommy John surgery rehabilitation. From 2016 through his injury, Volquez threw 281.2 innings with an excellet 49.7 GB%, though he was dicey with a 4.12 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 4.64 xFIP and 4.98 ERA during that stretch.
From the Cubbies we will want to focus on their top five hitters in Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez ad Kyle Schwarber as they have a nice mix of power and plate discipline.
LATE SLATE
Boston Red Sox at RHP Mike Leake
Keep in mind that it will be cooler through April more often than not for the evening West Coast games located near the water which of course will bring in the “marine layer” effect that tends to turn maybe homeruns into warning track outs. This is of course backed into the implied point totals, but just a reminder that things can get a little squirrely and we have forecast temperatures in the 60-62 range at first pitch with a 5-7 mph breeze blowing in from left field.
We know that Safeco Field, err T-Mobile Park is a pitching friendly venue, particularly in the spring and that helps limit the homeruns that RHP Mike Leake allows. The third-year Mariner is an “innings eater” at this point in his career and his low 4.5 BB% and excellent 51.5 GB% over the last 1,500 batters faced have helped him survive with a below average 15.9 K% and 1.16 HR/9 over the same stretch.
The Boston Red Sox have a veritable All-Star lineup and we can mix and match their top six in Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and last night’s hero Mitch Moreland. If you are looking for some differentiation on the three game late slate, then rolling with the 8-9 hitters (likely Jackie Bradley Jr and the catcher) in a “wrap-around” stack is a reasonable gambit.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
