It’s SUNDAY FUNDAY! Just a reminder that when we start to get games on Sundays beginning in the 3 o’clock hour, the sites all handle them differently. Today we have a nice clean line of demarcation where the main slate is everything before 3pm ET and the “late” slate begins with the 4pm action.
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Free Division Previews
AL West by Eric MacPherson
AL Central by Jake Hari
AL East by Adam Scherer
NL Central by Chris Spags
NL East by Dave Loughran
MAIN SLATE
New York Yankees vs RHP Dylan Bundy – 5.6 implied runs
Keep an eye on the weather as this game is all but assuredly going to start in a delay – that is where the fun starts and we begin our battle of wits between Mother Nature, Game Theory and our own Risk Tolerance.
The Orioles and Yankees play 19 games this season with two more series in The House that Ruth Built and Jeter Remodeled so there are a lot of ways this could go and following along with social media updates is going to be key.
In 31 starts last season RHP Dylan Bundy allowed a league leading 41 home runs but he also had a respectable 184 strikeouts in his 171.2 innings. This 5.6 total is going to catch the eye of everyone, so you will want to have your plan in place as to how you want to address the weather uncertainty. With regard to the hitters, pretty much anyone in pinstripes is in play for this matchup.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals – 8.5 implied runs
Here is a spot where we have two teams that have some power and while they may not make for the best stacking options with the cooler weather in the mid-to-low 40s throughout the game, RHP Lucas Giolito did allowed the 15th most homeruns last season and while he has had flashes of brilliance, he has also imploded many a time and over his 950+ hitters faced over the last two seasons, he is allowing a .190+ ISO to both sides of the plate.
On the other side, RHP Jorge Lopez has had mixed results with appearances in The Show in three of the last four seasons both as a starter and out of the bullpen, but his 65.2 innings pitched is a relatively small sample size, but he has a 5.07 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and just a 6.58 K/9 with a dangerously high 9.4 BB%. He was relatively splits neutral in the minor leagues and his 8.0 K/9 in his time there does not portend to a much higher strikeout rate than his limited MLB results have demonstrated thus far.
Cincinnati Reds vs RHP Trevor Williams – 4.5 implied runs
SATURDAY RAIN OUT. Once again one of the higher implied run totals after yesterday’s postponed game we will still see a pair of righties in Sonny Gray and Trevor Williams taking the mound. The major change today is that the precipitation has been replaced by cold with the in-game temperature unlikely to break through the very low 40s.
That said, we can lean on yesterday’s analysis – but with this weather shift both pitchers become options with Sonny Gray a fringe SP1 and Trevor Williams an SP2 who should help get leverage over the field, depending on the love for the Cincinnati batsmen.
PER YESTERDAY: We have a revamped Reds lineup that has a solid top five hitters we can look to with balance from both sides of the plate.
Here comes the caveat, even though RHP Trevor Williams has a less than favorable 4.69 xFIP in his career spanning 1,300+ hitters, he does a good job limiting hard contact 29.4 HH%, .115 ISO vs lefties and .152 ISO vs righties – his 81.1% contact rate demonstrates that he allows a lot of balls in play.
Over the last two seasons Joey Votto, Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker have all managed a .340+ wOBA against right-handed hurlers and everyone from this group except Winker has a .207+ ISO in that same time frame. The hope here is that this group strings together some doubles and we may get lucky with a homerun as Williams has a low .081 HR/9 rate over his 321 career innings pitched.
LATE SLATE
Boston Red Sox at LHP Wade LeBlanc
Crazy things happen in baseball, after all in this matchup last night RHP Mike Leake managed seven strikeouts against the BoSox and that is a number he has reached just 19 times in his last 123 starts.
We know that Safeco Field, err T-Mobile Park is a pitching friendly venue, particularly in the spring with the damp and cooler weather and that combined with a low 6.0 BB% and a 28.3% outside the zone swing rate should help southpaw Wade LeBlanc more often than not at home.
HOWEVER, as we pointed out yesterday, the Boston Red Sox have a veritable All-Star lineup and we can mix and match their top five with the preferred options being Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Eduardo Nunez and Andrew Benintendi when taking into account price, position and potential production.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
