Greetings Gamers! We have some excellent baseball awaiting us Friday and through the weekend. Let’s see what potential gems we can find!
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MAIN SLATE
Philadelphia Phillies vs RHP Jeremy Hellickson – 5.0 implied runs
From time-to-time if the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligns with Mars, RHP Jeremy Hellickson will string together some good innings before remembering he is in fact Jeremy Hellickson. Sometimes we can pick our spots and utilize him on a short slate in the right matchup and not get scalded, but this is not one of those times on a 14 game Friday slate.
In his first two starts this season in Philadelphia (Revenge!) and then against the Giants, the 32-year old veteran managed 11.2 innings with just two runs allowed, though he dodged things with eight hits and EIGHT walks… the next two games he lasted a grand total of 8.0 innings and while he had seven strikeouts and just two walks… he gave up 11 runs, 10 earned with three home runs allowed (two at home against San Diego and one in Coors Field).
The Phillies have too much talent and the Nationals have a bullpen that is nearly as bad as Baltimore’s so this is a spot where we can roll out the key cogs with the order of preference considering price, position and potential production being Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Maikel Franco, Andrew McCutchen and Nick Williams or Cesar Hernandez for some differentiation from the field.
Detroit Tigers vs RHP Jorge Lopez – 4.4 implied runs
Over parts of four seasons, RHP Jorge Lopez has accumulated 99.1 innings with a combination 15 starts and nine relief appearances compiling a less than stellar 5.07 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, 18.1 K% and a 8.9 BB% with a .359 wOBA and .230 ISO against 212 lefties allowing a 1.88 HR/9 and against 179 righties it has been a little better with a .329 wOBA, .136 ISO and a 0.65 HR/9, but those low strikeout, high walk ways are just not helping his cause.
Lopez has 724.0 innings over eight seasons in the minors and his career 4.41 ERA and 8.2 K/9 are not plumb awful, but do know that he has only three stops with less than a 4.00 ERA and the most recent one occurred in 2016 at 3.97 for AA Biloxi… ugh!
Our clear top choices here are Niko Goodrum and Nicholas Castellanos as they both boast a .200+ ISO in over their last 400+ matchups against right-handed pitching and if we want to round out our stack we can look to a discounted Jeimer Candelario ( who has just 7 XBHs in 103 ABs with no home runs after a career high 19 last season) and an aging Miguel Cabrera (who is on pace for 6 HR and 60 RBI this season), though with their recent performances it is not a prerequisite to force them into our lineups.
EVENING SLATE
Texas Rangers vs RHP Trent Thornton – 5.2 implied runs
While rookie RHP Trent Thornton has technically been unlucky with a 3.80 xFIP trending much better than his actual 5.08 ERA this season, he has allowed at least four runs in three of his six starts and he has only made it being the fifth inning once, back on April 5th in Cleveland when he went 5.2 innings. He strikes out more than one batter per inning with his 27.0 K% over his last 120 batters faced, but the .397 wOBA and .345 ISO against batters swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate is hideous and we know the Rangers can go very lefty-heavy with Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara… switch hitters Asdrubal Cabrera and Danny Santana… plus that one guy I haven’t mentioned yet… Joey Gallo who is tied for the AL home run lead with 11 this season.
Over four seasons in the minors, Thornton has accumulated 446.1 innings with a 4.23 ERA, 1.255 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 and while he is still young, he profiles with a ceiling as a #3 starter and may be better suited for the bullpen – though he should have plenty of chances to stay in the rotation for the Blue Jays.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
