Greetings MLB DFS Gamers! We have a split slate on Wednesday with four games beginning at 1:10pm ET and a ten game “main” slate at our typical 7:05pm ET start time. There is definitely something for everyone, so let’s dig in!
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Early Slate
Seattle Mariners at RHP Adrian Sampson – 6.1 implied run total
The main DFS sites have done a good job with the Seattle salaries and accounting for their matchup against the dismal pitching of RHP Adrian Sampson who is a contact machine with only 24 strikeouts across his 41.1 innings pitched (5.23 K/9) while allowing 64 baserunners, 22 earned runs and seven roundtrippers. He has allowed a .429 wOBA and a .268 ISO to the last 154 same-handed hitters he has faced and he is still giving up power to lefties at a .193 ISO as well.
Our trio to target will be the premium options of Mitch Haniger, Edwin Encarnacion and Dan Vogelbach. Unfortunately two of the three qualify only at first base which means we will be looking at more of a dynamic duo from the Mariners. Outside of RHP Louis Castillo the pitching for this four game set projects as a crapshoot at best, so we should have the funds to get a pair of the top-shelf Seattle options and Castillo as our core building blocks in all formats.
With Dee Gordon (wrist) and Ryon Healy (back) on the injured list, there should be playing time for J.P. Crawford over the next fortnight and he is the best prospect in the Mariners system and available at a reasonable price point across the board and of course veteran slugger Jay Bruce is always someone to consider against inferior hurlers.
Again, trying to work in two of the Seattle Sluggers along with Castillo is going to leave us thin at some other positions, so we could be getting some leverage over the field who may not be willing to go with a threadbare roster construction for the early slate.
Main Slate
New York Yankees at RHP Dan Straily – 7.4 implied runs
Back to the Bronx Bombers once again as they have yet another good matchup (are there any bad ones) against the Baltimore Orioles who will be sending out RHP Dan Straily to take his lumps. Somehow Straily has allowed one more home run (10) this season in 23.2 less innings pitched than RHP Andrew Cashner and only one less in 16.1 fewer innings pitched than RHP Dylan Bundy.
Over the last 668 batters faced since the beginning of the 2018 season, Straily has allowed a .350+ wOBA and a .220+ ISO with a 9.9 BB%. Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks and Clint Frazier are all very much in play and it is really just as simple as that.
Bonus: the Birdland bullpen is taxed having to absorb three innings or more in every game beginning with last Wednesday’s doubleheader.
Late Slate
Minnesota Twins at RHP Matt Harvey – 4.7 implied runs
While he has had some moments over the last two seasons after leaving Gotham for Cincinnati and now Anaheim, RHP Matt Harvey is no longer the Dark Knight by any stretch of the imagination and his fastball has trended down in each of the three months this season which does not bode well as he has gone to his slider and curveball to try and compensate. Over his last 433 opposite-handed mtachups, Harvey has been hammered with a .235 ISO, 38.8 FB% and 43.6 HH% which is going to be problematic as the Twinkies can put forth a mostly left-handed lineup if they so choose.
Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Rosario our the first players we should target and they will be carrying a premium price. Jason Castro is an intriguing option as those home runs at the bottom of the order do count just the same as they do for the cleanup hitters and of course I would be remiss if I did not mention that C.J. Cron is very familiar with the batter’s eye in Angel Stadium having spent the first four years of his MLB career with the franchise and he is a righty who has mighty power against all pitchers.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
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