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Early Slate
We have baseball, baseball and more baseball – the New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals were postponed on Friday night and we are still awaiting their official starting pitching for both games (“early” and then the “main” slate) and while analysis for this matchup is below, I will adjust accordingly Saturday mid-morning once we have the “official” starting pitchers locked in – though this will get us well set up for shell lineups. Don’t forget to tune in to the Awesemo MLB DFS Strategy show on the Awesemo YouTube channel at 11:15am for Adam “ShipMyMoney” Scherer’s featured thoughts.
New York Yankees at RHP Jake Junis – 4.2 implied runs
While RHP Jake Junis seemed to have his home run issues quelled towards the end of last season, they have come raring back with ten in just 55.1 innings so far this season and over the last two years Junis has the unfortunate tally of 42 home runs allowed which is second to RHP Dylan Bundy (53).
This is not the same YANKEES (all caps intended) lineup that we are used to seeing, though even with all of their injuries they still pack the highest implied run total for the first three games (FanDuel) and among those posted they are only a tick behind Washington who is facing RHP Sandy Alcantara for the ten game “Early” slate on DraftKings (totals are still pending for DET at NYM, PHI at MIL, CIN at CHC and CHW at MIN which I will update in the morning).
This is the first game of the doubleheader as Friday’s action was postponed for weather. As long as Junis is the first pitcher (though it will be semi-similar if RHP Jorge Lopez gets the nod for the early game) we need to give the New York batsmen serious consideration.
Our prime targets will be Gary Sanchez (likely to see one game behind the dish and one as the designated hitter), Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier as the bringers of lumber du jour.
Borrowing from yesterday’s writeup – which is key for the doubleheader, we need to realize that there is speed aka stolen base upside for the Royals which is either good or great, depending on the Yankees backstop, so here is that analysis which will play well for the slated evening NYY hurlers and in the early tilt for the KC baserunners, so please act accordingly.
Kansas City Royals vs RHP Chad Green/Nestor Cortes Jr/Luis Cessa – 4.7 implied runs
The Yankees will be using RHP Chad Green as an opener again much like they did on Sunday and he will likely only go for one inning and maybe 1-2 outs in the next depending on how efficient he is (he also worked out of the pen on Wednesday for 18 pitches). In a corresponding move, New York recalled RHP Nester Cortes Jr. who made a 76 pitch appearance behind Green on Sunday allowing three runs, five baserunners and a home run with six strikeouts. He has not made an appearance since pitching for the big club last Sunday. Though he has been stretched out as a starter at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre he has spend about half of his time on the farm as a reliever.
For this series, keep in mind that the Yankees backstops are HORRIBLE against baserunners with Gary Sanchez allowing 13 of 16 successful attempts in 26 starts, Austin Romine 11 of 14 in 18 starts and Kyle Higashioka 10 of 13 in four starts.
Kansas City leads the league with 48 steals on 68 attempts (White Sox and Rangers 35 of 46 and Cleveland 33 of 46) with Adelberto Mondesi #1 17, Billy Hamilton #6 9, Whit Merrifield #10 8 and recent callup Nicky Lopez averaged just over 20 steals each of his first three seasons and had nine at AAA this year before being called up, though we are still waiting for his first swipe in The Show.
The Royals hitters have also been above average this season and from that angle we will again want to consider Mondesi and Merrifield along with Hunter Dozier, Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler and if you are feeling frisky, the slumping Ryan O’Hearn does have light tower power – when he can get contact.
Afternoon Slate
Washington Nationals vs RHP Sandy Alcantara – 5.1 implied runs
RHP Sandy Alcantara is living on the edge and at some point is going to spectacularly provide fireworks to the opposing team. Yeah, he lucked out with his first career CGSO against the Mets on a measly 89 pitches, but even this still watered-down version of the recent Nationals team is in a much better spot than the #LOLMets.
Our focus should of obviously be on Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon, however we can expand our stack with the recently returned Matt Adams and Trea Turner who are going to be spendy on DraftKings, but only moderately so on Yahoo! and FanDuel. Across nearly 500 innings and five minor league seasons, the right-handed Dominican has been sketchy at best.
Main Slate
Atlanta Braves at RHP Dakota Hudson – 4.9 implied runs
We are 330+ batters into RHP Dakota Hudson’s career and he has been less than stellar with an 11.9 BB%, 16.3 K% and a 4.82 xFIP and while he has been decent against same-handed hitters, lefties have destroyed him which is no surprise considering his arsenal. While Atlanta really only boasts three lefties in most incarnations of their lineup with Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Nick Markakis, their righties are pretty darn good with Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson and Dansby Swanson who has really come into his own over the last month.
Check out the Live Before Lock MLB show on the Awesemo YouTube channel at 6:00pm for up to date main slate analysis.
Late Slate
We have a two gamer here with Coors Field which is approaching a nearly unheard of TWELVE run implied total and the TEX at LAA tilt in Anaheim which after lowering the outfield wall to a more routine 8-10 foot height has been leaning much more hitter friendly than the past. More information will be provided Saturday afternoon when we get lineups.
My rankings of the players in the Coors Field Extravaganza considering price, positional eligibility and potential production would be Keon Broxton, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Trey Mancini, David Dahl, Hanser Alberto, Pedro Severino, Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez, Raimel Tapia, Steve Wilkerson, Richie Martin, Ian Desmond, Ryan McMahon, Chris Iannetta.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
