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Miami Marlins at RHP Erick Fedde – 4.0 implied runs
Once again the caveat is that the Marlins will provide some salary relief as the Coors Field Extravaganza is once again on DraftKings and of course Yahoo!, which runs all of the games to the end of the day with each of their start times (sorry FanDuel and FantasyDraft, no Coors for you!), so use these options to help upgrade at other positions.
Which stats should we believe… that RHP Erick Fedde has turned things around this season with a 2.87 ERA and 1.02 WHIP working out of the bullpen five times with one start, or his career 5.75 ERA and 1.55 WHIP… I am choosing the latter as a more representative example of his talent.
The knock on Fedde is that he allows lefties to whap the ball with a .373 wOBA and a .207 ISO across his last 125 righty/lefty matchups dating back to the beginning of the 2018 season. The one downside is that Miami is sorely lacking with batters swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate with pretty much former Mets Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker as their prime options. Both offer a discount with some upside as the Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in the league, though they did get a respite with LHP Patrick Corbin pitching a complete game shutout on Saturday.
Minnesota Twins vs RHP Dylan Covey – 6.5 implied runs
We will not be alone targeting against RHP Dylan Covey who is sporting a career 6.03 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP, however, this is a nice antidote to the likely mega-popularity of the batsmen partaking in the game in Denver on Sunday.
If Covey was a full-time starter with his 212.0 career innings being a representative sample size, he would be among the league leaders in a single season with 37 home runs allowed during his time in The Show.
Over his last 600+ batters faced, Covey has an eye-popping 10.7 BB%, 4.91 xFIP and paltry 15.4 K%. Lefties are the bane of his existence and we can look to Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jason Castro as one-offs, pairs or a power trio for some leverage against the likely popular Rockies and Orioles.
Oakland Athletics vs RHP Mike Leake – 5.3 implied runs
With only three games on the “afternoon” slate we are going to want to turn our attention to Oakland and target the Athletics against RHP Mike Leake who has had some moments at the end of last season and the beginning of this one when the matchup was favorable, but he has always had a sterling walk rate, but a well below league average 15ish K% and more disturbing is of course his above average hard-hit rate.
While Khris Davis is on the shelf which was first described as a sore hip, but now is an oblique issue, the A’s are missing their best bat, Matt Olsen broke his hamate bone in Japan facing the Mariners in the MLB “opening” series this season, though he has returned and with four home runs and two doubles over his last 38 at bats, he does not seem to be suffering from “sapped power” which is often an after-effect of this injury. Stephen Piscotty is the defacto-cleanup hitter and while he was scratched on Saturday with an illness, if he is in the lineup, he should be good to roll with on Sunday.
This season, Leake has allowed a combined 42.0 HH% across 259 batters faced and we know that Oakland traditionally places a premium on lineup construction putting their players in the best situations to succeed.
We can also look to Matt Chapman, Mark Canha and potentially Josh Phegley for some additional pop. They are all fairly priced for the most part across the sites, which should help to keep their popularity in check.
Seattle Mariners at LHP Brett Anderson – 4.3 implied runs
Staying in this game for our additional hitters is going to be key as LHP Brett Anderson is dealing with a neck strain and will be making his turn in the rotation with one extra day of rest. While he has been solid this season, the 4.93 xFIP, lowly 11.8 K% and dangerous 8.4 BB% tell a different story of a pitcher living on the edge and getting lucky.
The Mariners do have a plethora of hitters that do well against southpaws, so amongst our six team player pool we should look to Mitch Haniger, Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana and then lefties Daniel Vogelbach, Omar Narvaes and Jay Bruce are in play as differentiation options.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac