MLB DFS: Monday, August 5th has a dozen games on the “main” slate at Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and DFS picks, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
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Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Monday slate, which has a sprinkling of solid though spendy pitching options along with a boatload of questions marks, bullpen games and “who the heck is this guy” the further we get down the pricing list.
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Main Slate
New York Yankees at RHP Gabriel Ynoa (and the bullpen) – 6.0 implied runs
Edwin Encarnacion is out with a fractured right wrist, Aaron Hicks injured his right elbow on a throw in from the outfield on Saturday night, Gary Sanchez (groin) is eligible to come off the injury list, but he could be another 5-7 days away and of course Luke Voit (sports hernia), Giancarlo Stanton (knee sprain) are still out for the foreseeable future.
What that does provide is an opportunity for the ambulatory Yankees to move up in the batting order (Gleyber Torres, Giovanny Urshela, Didi Gregorius) and it opens up regular at bats for Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman, Cameron Maybin and Austin Romine along with of course D.J. LeMaieu and Aaron Judge who should be at the top of the order.
Over his last 300 batters faced, RHP Gabriel Ynoa has allowed a combined .200 ISO, with a 14.3 K% and 5.58 xFIP. While he should only be in for two innings, they could be productive ones for the top of the order. Once he is out we will get to see who draws the short straw from the bullpen that is allowing the second worst SIERA, xFIP and ERA along with the lowest strikeout rate in the league.
Evening Slate
Atlanta Braves at RHP Jake Odorizzi – 5.1 implied runs
While RHP Jake Odorizzi has solid “baseball card” numbers with a 3.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 113 strikeouts with just 14 home runs allowed in 108.2 innings, his two-year advanced metrics pain a less rosy portrait with a 5.19 ERA, 9.2 BB% and lefties getting to him for a .340 wOBA, .197 ISO, 49.7 FB% with a 40.2 HH% though he has an even 17/17 split on home runs allowed in that timeframe. Righties have been less successful against the former “reverse-splits” pitcher with a .294 wOBA and a .144 ISO, so it is the batters swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate that we will want to target. That puts Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Ender Inciarte, Brian McCann and Johan Camargo squarely in the mix and that quartet is a solid contrarian group on the full game-set and core plays on the two-game 8 o’clock slate.
Late Slate
Philadelphia Phillies at RHP Merrill Kelly – 5.1 implied runs
It has been an up-and-down season for 30-year old rookie RHP Merrill Kelly who had a long and winding path to The Show, having been drafted twice and returning to school before being drafted for a third and final time, then spending five years in the Tampa Bay system never making it above AAA-Durham before spending the last five season in the Korean League and now here we are… allowing power has been the main issue and he has giving up seven earned runs in each of his last two outings (BAL and at MIA) along with five home runs in those 8.2 innings and for the season he has allowed 21 round-trippers in his 125.1 innings with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP with 100 strikeouts.
It has actually been the same-handed hitters that have ad the most success against Kelly with righties compiling a .208 ISO over 285 matchups and lefties a .164 over 244 encounters.
Philly has a pair of top-notch righties with power in Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto and from the left side we can focus on recently acquired and finally getting some playing time Corey Dickerson with Bryce Harper capable of taking anyone deep in any ballpark at any time. Scott Kingery and Cesar Hernandez are in play for differentiation or to create a full-stack.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
Awesemo’s MLB Projections
In addition to our MLB Projections, Awesemo’s ownership projections come out every day before lineup lock, as well as in the lead-up to night slate games. We also release a daily Top Stack projection, which takes a look at how likely each MLB stack is to be the highest scoring unit on the slate, relative to our projected ownership and value. Want a more in-depth look? Check out Data Central page, which tallies up every single bit of data we’ve collected over the course of the day, including chance of postponement.
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Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
