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Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Wednesday slate, which has a variety of game sets creating several puzzles for us to solve today. Keep in mind there are only five games on the “main” slate with an early 6:40pm ET lock and some weather to keep an eye on in the NYY at BAL game.
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Main Slate
Boston Red Sox vs RHP Jaime Barria – 6.5 implied runs
This is a HORRIBLE matchup for RHP Jaime Barria who has some wicked same-handed splits allowing the last 383 righties he has faced to tally a .379 wOBA, .234 ISO, 9.1 BB% with a 1.85 HR/9 and he has he misfortune of facing Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez who all carry a .385+ wOBA and .240+ ISO against fellow righties since the beginning of last season.
Toronto Blue Jays vs LHP J.A. Happ – 4.9 implied runs
While gamers are going to the Bronx Bombers, we shouldn’t overlook the solid matchup for the Blue Jays against LHP J.A. Happ. He has ceded a .354 wOBA, .230 ISO and a 2.08 HR/9 this season in 364 lefty/righty matchups. Look to Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Randal Grichuck, Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel and Teoscar Hernandez as the key plays and if you need some savings, Brandon Drury and Danny Jansen are not the worst options for their price points.
Evening Slate
St Louis Cardinals vs RHP Chris Archer – 4.9 implied runs
This is all about the leverage for me as I suspect RHP Chris Archer will be very popular on the two-pitcher sites Friday and I would like to have some lineups crafted to take advantage of that possible poor outing… this will be the third time he has faced the Redbirds and while he has been solid with a 3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 22 strikeouts with just three home runs allowed in 17.0 innings, at some point the wheels are going to come off the wagon and I want to capitalize on that.
Once again the Cardinals will have a mostly right-handed lineup, though there is a chance we could see an even split with Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Kolten Wong and Matt Wieters from the left-side and Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez from the right-side of the plate.
Since the beginning of last season, Archer has allowed a .170 ISO, 1.29 HR/9 with a 26.7 K% to same-handed hitters while lefties have compiled a .222 ISO, 1.89 HR/9 with a 24.0 K%. We can liberally mix and match here using the St Louis prices and position eligibility to our advantage as fill-in or mini-stacks.
Late Slate
San Diego Padres vs LHP Kyle Freeland – 5.0 implied runs
In between his trip back to the minors where he made six starts for AAA-Albuquerque in June with an 0-4 record, 8.80 ERA, 1.888 WHIP over 29.1 innings with 28 strikeouts and four home runs allowed, LHP Kyle Freeland has compiled a 7.24 ERA, 1.61 WHIP across 17 starts and 82.0 innings with only 67 strikeouts and an abysmal 22 home runs allowed. He may be designated for assignment at some point in the near future. Although he is making just over $500K in his arbitration year so there is some value as he enters his age 27 season.
For Friday however, we can target him with righties as he has now entered the 400/300 club with a .408 wOBA and .311 ISO across the 302 lefties he has faced this season in The Show and the Padres are loaded with options.
Hunter Renfroe leads the way once again with Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado and Will Myers right behind him. We can go with Manuel Margot along with whomever is behind the dish for some differentiation in our full stacks.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
Awesemo’s MLB Projections
In addition to our MLB Projections, Awesemo’s ownership projections come out every day before lineup lock.We also release a daily Top Stack projection, which takes a look at how likely each MLB stack is to be the highest scoring unit on the slate, relative to our projected ownership and value. Want a more in-depth look? Check out Data Central page, which tallies up every single bit of data we’ve collected over the course of the day, including chance of postponement.
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