MLB DFS: Wednesday, August 14th gives a hefty split slate day of wall-to-wall action culminating with a six game “main” slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB picks, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
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Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Wednesday slate, which gives us a couple of “early” slates and then a still decent six game set finishing up our hump day.
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Early Slate
New York Yankees vs RHP Dylan Bundy – 6.8 implied runs
Look, I know I try to stay away from the obvious plays in this article and try to provide some potential “nuggets” of wisdom or insight – but sometimes it is just too hard to pass on obvious spots. To be fair, I would be writing up darn near any team against RHP Dylan Bundy who leads the league with 65 home runs allowed since the beginning of last season (24 this year) though he has made it one whole start without allowing one… and it was against Houston of all teams.
Of the 65 home runs allowed, 29 have gone to lefties and 39 have been to same-handed hitters, so we can target him with batters from either side of the plate. Additionally (as if we needed any more incentive) the last 615 lefties that have faced him have compiled a .373 wOBA, .216 ISO and a 42.5 FB% while 631 righties have tallied a .345 wOBA, .269 ISO with a 44.0 FB%.
With this being an early game after a night game on Tuesday, we could see a few of the players get a day off, however, would you want a day off against the Orioles putrid pitching staff? Our preferred order based on potential production, price, position eligibility and projected popularity: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Giovanny Urshela, DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius, Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford and Cameron Maybin.
Afternoon Slate
Coors Field Extravaganza – 12.5 implied runs
The clear target is of course southpaw Kyle Freeland who managed to survive in his last two starts (at SDP vs SFG) for 11.0 combined innings with five runs allowed on two homers with 14 base runners and eight strikeouts. His season long numbers are still dreadful with a 7.06 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 22 home runs and just 70 strikeouts in 88.0 innings. If you thought that was bad, he had six starts for AAA-Albuquerque in June with an 0-4 record, 8.80 ERA, 1.888 WHIP over 29.1 innings with 28 strikeouts and four home runs allowed… YIKES! Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Nick Ahmed, Wilmer Flores, Eduardo Escobar, Carson Kelly, Adam Jones and Tim Locastro would be my targeted order.
Of course LHP Robbie Ray also has turned the corner over his last two starts (vs WAS at LAD) going 11.0 innings with six earned runs, no home runs, eight hits, just three walks and a dozen strikeouts – of course he allowed home runs in eleven straight games prior to this, with multi-home runs in six of those games. Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado are the obvious plays and probably where my interest in the Rockies wanes as Ray is very good against lefties, however, Charlie Blackmon can be considered along with Ian Desmond and Yonathan Daza if you are feeling frisky.
Main Slate
Seattle Mariners at RHP Edwin Jackson – 5.5 implied runs
Just when you thought we would be through with RHP Edwin Jackson, the pitching desperate Detroit Tigers have seen their hand forced and have had to give him a second tour of duty. In 34.2 innings this season he has been tattooed for 13 home runs and a 9.35 ERA, 1.96 WHIP with just 23 strikeouts in 34.2 innings between the Tigers and Blue Jays… do not let his 6.1 scoreless innings in his last start fool you, he is someone we can pick on.
Even giving him the benefit of the doubt and including last seasons stats he has allowed 277 lefties to tag him for a .336 wOBA, .198 ISO and an 11.2 BB% while 273 righties have accrued a .380 wOBA, .262 ISO with a 7.7 BB%. Look to the Mariners lefties first with Daniel Vogelbach, J.P. Crawford, Omar Narvaez and Domingo Santiago being the core four to build around then we can work in anyone else as appropriate such as Mallex Smith, Austin Nola, Kyle Seager and even Dee Gordon or Keon Broxton for some differentiation.
Late Slate
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs RHP Chris Archer – 5.0 implied runs
Back to the Halos we go on a thin two game late slate, but it is not going to take much to talk ourselves into picking on RHP Chris Archer on any Wednesday slate. Over his last 496 opposite-handed matchups, Archer has allowed a .354 wOBA, .223 ISO with a 10.5 BB% and 641 righties have also given him fits with a .333 wOBA and a .166 ISO and he has allowed 25 round trippers this season to go with the 19 from last year.
Shohei Ohtani is the lead option here and of course we can pair him with Mike Trout and then spread things out to included Kole Calhoun, Matthew Thaiss, Albert Pujols, Justin Upton and David Fletcher… though on the main slate, I would prefer the trio of outfielders well before getting to the rest of the hitters on the list.
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Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
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