MLB Picks: Wednesday, September 18th has a three game set in the afternoon and a ten main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For today’s Spotlight Pitchers article click here
Greetings Gamers! We have a split slate with a couple workday distraction games in the afternoon. This is followed up by a rousing 10 game set for the main contests at the usual time.
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Early Slate
Oakland Athletics vs. RHP Jorge Lopez – 5.8 implied runs
This is going to be a tricky outing for LHP Danny Duffy against a righty heavy lineup. Over his last 959 lefty/righty matchups batters have tallied a .334 wOBA, .184 ISO with a 9.8 BB%. In that same timeframe, the southpaw has allowed a 1.53 HR/9 to opposite-handed hitters.
Mark Canha, Matt Chapman, Josh Phegley and Khris Davis all have .250+ ISOs against righties. Marcus Semien is solid as the leadoff hitter with a .216. Best of all, Matt Olson has a .274 ISO against fellow lefties and we know gamers shy away from that handedness matchup.
Main Slate
Seattle Mariners at RHP Dario Agrazal – 4.6 implied runs
This is a contrarian play as there are plenty of teams with some eye-popping run totals for Wednesday. RHP Dario Agrazal has been a disaster this season against lefties. He has squared off against 140 and been tattooed for a .398 wOBA, .222 ISO and only a 7.1 K%. Though the Mariners will lose the designated hitter they have some lefties to target. Omar Narvaez, J.P. Crawford and Kyle Seager should be in the lineup. There is also a chance that Dan Vogelbach will be in at first base for this prime matchup. Additionally, rookie Kyle Lewis has four home runs in his first seven games and he is cheap across the board.
Late Slate
Houston Astros vs. LHP Kolby Allard – 5.9 implied runs
In all honesty, LHP Kolby Allard has been adequate in his 37.1 innings with a 4.34 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 30 strikeouts with just one home run allowed. However, we do need someone to pick on for the late slate and he is our target. The 22-year old was decent in Triple-A this season with a 4.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 106 strikeouts in 115.0 innings. He was the 10th best prospect for Atlanta at the beginning of the season. Not that it matters for this matchup, but he was traded to the Rangers for bullpen help.
As a team the Astros have a 134 wRC+ against southpaws. This means they score 34% more efficiently than the average team in the league. The also have a top three ISO, wOBA, OPS and BB% and their 17.9 K% is the lowest this season.
Alex Bregman, George Springer, Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel lead the way. Carlos Correa has returned from injury, though I am not fired up to play him yet, he makes the lineup better. Rookie Yordan Alvarez has been amazing with a .344 ISO in 111 lefty/lefty matchups. Plus, for differentiation we have Robinson Chirinos and Josh Reddick at the bottom of the order. Enjoy!
As always, reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
Awesemo’s MLB Projections
In addition to our MLB Projections, Awesemo’s ownership projections come out every day before lineup lock. In addition, we also release a daily Top Stack projection, which takes a look at how likely each MLB stack is to be the highest scoring unit on the slate, relative to our projected ownership and value. Want a more in-depth look? Check out Data Central page, which tallies up every single bit of data we’ve collected over the course of the day, including chance of postponement.
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Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
